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I'm calling this Bubble 2.0, and it's ready to burst

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Re: I'm calling this Bubble 2.0, and it's ready to burst

#21
A startup bubble is the best thing that could possibly happen.

Look at it this way. There are plenty of talented engineers, designers, and entrepreneurs out there trying to build the next big thing. Due to the incredible scale and reach of the internet economy, those who succeed will become fabulously wealthy. But most will fail (or at least not reach that scale) due to various circumstances---a misstep in execution, a superior competitor, our simply bad luck. There are certainly many small successes, but success or failure can seem like an incredibly binary event.

Why should engineers shoulder that risk? That’s the raison d’etre of finance and investment. Let those with capital take on the risk, and give the engineers enough security so that a “failure” doesn’t put a talented person out of the game. If every startup that demonstrates that it execute on an idea and can clear some threshold of viability gets a reasonable exit, then the investors will still get enough Facebooks to generate a good return, and the startup teams are much less captive to chance and fortune with respect to whether they can pay the bills or not.

Re: I'm calling this Bubble 2.0, and it's ready to burst

#22
The Poetry startup seems to be a very healthy idea. There is a large audience of poets; writing poetry is a very social process; and they use Internet extensively . Right now they are scattered thru a million of small resources and communities in social networks. But what if you can bring them all in one place? There might be a sufficiently large audience to monetize even if we forget about readers at all.

So his bubble sample has meaning and therefore his POV rests unproved.

Re: I'm calling this Bubble 2.0, and it's ready to burst

#24
I've been thinking for a while that someone (perhaps even me) should build a better steam engine. It's cool technology, and the current speed record has stood for over a century; surely we have better materials science now (and the recent success of Tornado, a replica A3 Pacific, shows that it's possible for enthusiasts to build a steam engine on a not implausibly huge budget). One for kickstarter?

Re: I'm calling this Bubble 2.0, and it's ready to burst

#25
post #5

Unfortunately I'm starting to agree with the bubble 2.0. Last year I didn't believe it that much, but this year I'm starting to see crazy company evaluations, highly inflated that don't generate any revenue at all, so I don't know how can they be worth billions of dollars, but I know math and little about economics. But if bursts, it's a good thing. It brings perspective, a thing that's missing a lot these days, wher…

So let's be clear about this: these kinds of startups are arbitrary containers for investment dollars. They could be corn, or property, or jelly futures. But as it happens, technology companies are where a lot of people are putting their money right now.

As a result, it's not the startups with the secure bottom line that are getting investment: it's shiny startups that happen to be very popular. Because those are the ones that look great in an investment portfolio, and which could potentially be sold elsewhere. It's not about dividends over time; it's about passing on a shiny valuable to someone else for a cash return.

Given that premise, it seems like two things need to happen for the bubble to burst:

- The odds of an investment going bad must increase (or the perceived odds) / the perceived value of shiny startups in general must decrease

- Another arbitrary, shiny container for investment must arise

Thanks to the banking crisis, we know that property and related investments are going to be tainted for a little while. What else out there could threaten the startup market today? How about in five years?

Re: I'm calling this Bubble 2.0, and it's ready to burst

#26

The Poetry startup seems to be a very healthy idea. There is a large audience of poets; writing poetry is a very social process; and they use Internet extensively . Right now they are scattered thru a million of small resources and communities in social networks. But what if you can bring them all in one place? There might be a sufficiently large audience to monetize even if we forget about readers at all. So his bub…

This reaoning is why it's a bubble - the idea that selling services to poets scales in the way that selling poetry to consumers would (in theory).

Re: I'm calling this Bubble 2.0, and it's ready to burst

#28
It is temerity to pass this prediction based on extremely small sample data.

Instagram, Colors, Zynga and others like that are still exceptions rather than a rule. Indeed media attention for these social apps/gaming companies tend to be high which might give the illusion that internet industry as a whole is moving towards valuations without any base underneath.

Re: I'm calling this Bubble 2.0, and it's ready to burst

#29

A startup bubble is the best thing that could possibly happen. Look at it this way. There are plenty of talented engineers, designers, and entrepreneurs out there trying to build the next big thing. Due to the incredible scale and reach of the internet economy, those who succeed will become fabulously wealthy. But most will fail (or at least not reach that scale) due to various circumstances---a misstep in execution,…

It's not about whether third party investment is a good idea, it's about whether the valuations third parties make are reasonable or based on hype. The cost of bubbles is in talent misallocation - could talented people be producing other things of more enduring value?
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