The Avengers: Why Pirates Failed To Prevent A Box Office Record • Hacker News Board

Re: The Avengers: Why Pirates Failed To Prevent A Box Office Record

#111

Post by jcampbell1 » Wed, May 09, 2012, 4:54 AM UTC

moe wrote: post #107

jcampbell1 wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree that simultaneous releases are best for sales, but that ignores reality. Lets assume 400 movies are screened per year in NY/LA, 200 widely in the US, and 125 in foreign theaters. It is simply not possible for all 400 movies to have a simultaneous global release. Theater owners must take a "wait and see" approach for many films. I also don't agree with your 6 month figure, but I'd be happy to be proven wrong.…

It is simply not possible for all 400 movies to have a simultaneous global release. Theater owners must take a "wait and see" approach for many films. Who cares about theaters? I haven't been in a movie theater in 5 years - it just doesn't appeal to me at all. And I know for a fact that many of my friends who used to be cinema-buffs don't care much anymore either. We prefer to watch films in our home-cinemas now, on…

> If iTunes launched in parallel with the theaters we would buy all movies.

If iTunes launched in parallel with the theaters, the PirateBay would have a pristine copy of all movies in the theaters. If you were a movie maker or a distributor, is something that you would do given the current marketplace? That strikes me as bat-shit crazy.

That being said, I think it would be best if the top 100 films had a global release, and were all available on iTunes globally 10-14 weeks later. Hollywood is forced to compete with the PirateBay. At some point, they are going to have to start selling on iTunes as soon as the pirates get a quality copy.

I personally love going to the movies, and frankly I think it is a bargain. I spend about $200/year on movie tickets and enjoy it most of the time, and I spend about $1000/year on broadway shows and fucking hate it the majority of the time. There is nothing that gives me the creeps more than when someone breaks into song for no apparent reason. I do love comedy clubs, and $5 admission plus two overpriced drinks is the best deal around.

When I have kids and move to the suburbs, my perspective will likely be identical to yours. I fully understand your perspective, and a I think hollywood would be well served to cater to the future myself.

Re: The Avengers: Why Pirates Failed To Prevent A Box Office Record

#112

Post by ekianjo » Wed, May 09, 2012, 5:27 AM UTC

jcampbell1 wrote: post #28

tseabrooks wrote: post #4

Torrentfreak's articles seem to get better and better. They note the ways in which piracy is hurting films (foreign sales) and show some numbers indicating that in the US it doesn't appear to be hurting sales much at all. While obviously torrentfreak can't ever be considered objective in regards to piracy, they seem to be getting closer each time. Back on topic then, Does anyone have the background necessary to know…

I am perplexed by your comment about overseas release dates. There has been an absolutely massive compression in release dates in the past 5 years. Most obvious blockbusters are now globally released, and the spread for smaller films has also been contracting. Avengers was released overseas prior to the US release. A film like The Descendants was released 4 weeks early in NY/LA, and then foreign releases were only 6…

> Most obvious blockbusters are now globally released

Not true. Avengers is not even out in Japan yet. It wont be out until later summer (August). I can't believe they are delaying it for so long. And Japan is a BIG market for movies.

Re: The Avengers: Why Pirates Failed To Prevent A Box Office Record

#113

Post by ekianjo » Wed, May 09, 2012, 5:34 AM UTC

moe wrote: post #107

jcampbell1 wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree that simultaneous releases are best for sales, but that ignores reality. Lets assume 400 movies are screened per year in NY/LA, 200 widely in the US, and 125 in foreign theaters. It is simply not possible for all 400 movies to have a simultaneous global release. Theater owners must take a "wait and see" approach for many films. I also don't agree with your 6 month figure, but I'd be happy to be proven wrong.…

It is simply not possible for all 400 movies to have a simultaneous global release. Theater owners must take a "wait and see" approach for many films. Who cares about theaters? I haven't been in a movie theater in 5 years - it just doesn't appeal to me at all. And I know for a fact that many of my friends who used to be cinema-buffs don't care much anymore either. We prefer to watch films in our home-cinemas now, on…

> I haven't been in a movie theater in 5 years - it just doesn't appeal to me at all. And I know for a fact that many of my friends who used to be cinema-buffs don't care much anymore either.

I have a decent home-cinema system too (projector and all) but I still go and watch movies. The screen is so much bigger and brighter in theaters, it's not really the same experience. However, sound-wise, I agree a good home cinema system is unbeatable. You can sit right in the center, at the sweet spot to get all the effects right, something you cannot achieve often in theaters.

Re: The Avengers: Why Pirates Failed To Prevent A Box Office Record

#114

Post by ekianjo » Wed, May 09, 2012, 5:40 AM UTC

DeepDuh wrote: post #102

jswanson wrote: post #100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Japan still lags behind the US for most big-ticket films. Avengers won't open here until 2012/08/17, more than three months after the US release date. [1] That's a month ahead of the projected blu-ray release of the film though. It's really hit and miss, but most of the more major films lag by two to three months. 1 - http://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E3%82%A2%E3%83%99%E3%83%B3%E3%...

Japan probably has one of the lowest piracy rates, so they don't seem to be forced to release earlier there. Japan's own media is even more backwards, most of their media never gets international releases although there is a big fansub scene. They don't seem to need the money.

> They don't seem to need the money.

Oh no, they DO need the money, believe me. Most of their productions take years to just break even, and some never do. The reason why they are not actively pursuing international releases is linked to the way Japanese do business. Most of these media companies are very traditional and do not understand the opportunities outside of Japan. And even if they did, they'd need to get the approval of an old 社長 to proceed with such plans. This happens very rarely. They are missing a huge market.

Re: The Avengers: Why Pirates Failed To Prevent A Box Office Record

#115

Post by jcampbell1 » Wed, May 09, 2012, 6:54 AM UTC

ekianjo wrote: post #112

jcampbell1 wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am perplexed by your comment about overseas release dates. There has been an absolutely massive compression in release dates in the past 5 years. Most obvious blockbusters are now globally released, and the spread for smaller films has also been contracting. Avengers was released overseas prior to the US release. A film like The Descendants was released 4 weeks early in NY/LA, and then foreign releases were only 6…

> Most obvious blockbusters are now globally released Not true. Avengers is not even out in Japan yet. It wont be out until later summer (August). I can't believe they are delaying it for so long. And Japan is a BIG market for movies.

Japan is a unique market for movies. No good dubbing studios, a flaky box office, and weird taste in movies. Since you live there, and seem to have a good handle on English, I suggest you just pirate the movies and watch them in English. Japan is the exception to all my comments.

Re: The Avengers: Why Pirates Failed To Prevent A Box Office Record

#116

Post by DanBC » Wed, May 09, 2012, 6:59 AM UTC

moe wrote: post #107

jcampbell1 wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree that simultaneous releases are best for sales, but that ignores reality. Lets assume 400 movies are screened per year in NY/LA, 200 widely in the US, and 125 in foreign theaters. It is simply not possible for all 400 movies to have a simultaneous global release. Theater owners must take a "wait and see" approach for many films. I also don't agree with your 6 month figure, but I'd be happy to be proven wrong.…

It is simply not possible for all 400 movies to have a simultaneous global release. Theater owners must take a "wait and see" approach for many films. Who cares about theaters? I haven't been in a movie theater in 5 years - it just doesn't appeal to me at all. And I know for a fact that many of my friends who used to be cinema-buffs don't care much anymore either. We prefer to watch films in our home-cinemas now, on…

> I haven't been in a movie theater in 5 years - it just doesn't appeal to me at all.

Luxury theatres are appearing. My small hometown (population something like 90,000) has one - big comfy seats, nice screens, good sound, lack of idiot customers, to-the-seat food and drink service.

(http://www.thescreeningrooms.co.uk/gallery)

Re: The Avengers: Why Pirates Failed To Prevent A Box Office Record

#117

Post by DanBC » Wed, May 09, 2012, 7:02 AM UTC

jcampbell1 wrote: post #111

moe wrote: post #107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is simply not possible for all 400 movies to have a simultaneous global release. Theater owners must take a "wait and see" approach for many films. Who cares about theaters? I haven't been in a movie theater in 5 years - it just doesn't appeal to me at all. And I know for a fact that many of my friends who used to be cinema-buffs don't care much anymore either. We prefer to watch films in our home-cinemas now, on…

> If iTunes launched in parallel with the theaters we would buy all movies. If iTunes launched in parallel with the theaters, the PirateBay would have a pristine copy of all movies in the theaters. If you were a movie maker or a distributor, is something that you would do given the current marketplace? That strikes me as bat-shit crazy. That being said, I think it would be best if the top 100 films had a global relea…

> and I spend about $1000/year on broadway shows and fucking hate it the majority of the time.

Why go if you hate it so much?

Re: The Avengers: Why Pirates Failed To Prevent A Box Office Record

#118

Post by jcampbell1 » Wed, May 09, 2012, 7:55 AM UTC

DanBC wrote: post #117

jcampbell1 wrote: post #111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If iTunes launched in parallel with the theaters we would buy all movies. If iTunes launched in parallel with the theaters, the PirateBay would have a pristine copy of all movies in the theaters. If you were a movie maker or a distributor, is something that you would do given the current marketplace? That strikes me as bat-shit crazy. That being said, I think it would be best if the top 100 films had a global relea…

> and I spend about $1000/year on broadway shows and fucking hate it the majority of the time. Why go if you hate it so much?

Family, friends, and guests. It is a reasonable price to pay relative to the reward.

Re: The Avengers: Why Pirates Failed To Prevent A Box Office Record

#119

Post by flocial » Wed, May 09, 2012, 8:05 AM UTC

ekianjo wrote: post #112

jcampbell1 wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am perplexed by your comment about overseas release dates. There has been an absolutely massive compression in release dates in the past 5 years. Most obvious blockbusters are now globally released, and the spread for smaller films has also been contracting. Avengers was released overseas prior to the US release. A film like The Descendants was released 4 weeks early in NY/LA, and then foreign releases were only 6…

> Most obvious blockbusters are now globally released Not true. Avengers is not even out in Japan yet. It wont be out until later summer (August). I can't believe they are delaying it for so long. And Japan is a BIG market for movies.

I'd also add that the language barrier and the fact that torrenting isn't as popular as other countries makes it easier for Hollywood to rely on traditional box office and DVD sales in Japan. That and the fact that they probably have a lot of binding distribution deals with the big dubbing/distribution houses.

Re: The Avengers: Why Pirates Failed To Prevent A Box Office Record

#120

Post by swombat » Wed, May 09, 2012, 8:18 AM UTC

Tyrannosaurs wrote: post #95

swombat wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why delay it at all? Frankly they shouldn't care how we want to watch a film, just that we want to and are willing to pay for it. If you watch the latest blockbuster on the day of release at home on your mega projector that you bought with all the money you saved by not going to the cinema, with your wife, your three kids, and your neighbours (5 more people), you pay for just one stream/ticket. If all those people go…

A few people will do this but most won't. The fact a few people game a system rarely stops a business model. It doesn't have to work in every specific instance, just overall.

Actually I think most would - perhaps not at a 10x multiple, but at least 2-3x, maybe 5x. If I were to download a brand new movie that just came out today I would definitely watch it with at least my girlfriend, but possibly invite a few friends around for a movie night. Or some friends would invite me (I hope!).

I would end up watching a lot more movies, but providing much less income to the movie industry for each.