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The Avengers: Why Pirates Failed To Prevent A Box Office Record

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Re: The Avengers: Why Pirates Failed To Prevent A Box Office Record

#101

Post by robryan »

jcampbell1 wrote: post #78
rickmb wrote: post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This only involves the top blockbusters. For most other US produced movies the waiting time for releases can easily be well over 6 months. Besides, 6 weeks is still a long time in the age of instant global communication. Basically, all the hype and buzz surrounding a film starts well before the release and dramatically drops a week after. After a month, people have pretty much forgotten about it. This hurts sales eve…

I agree that simultaneous releases are best for sales, but that ignores reality. Lets assume 400 movies are screened per year in NY/LA, 200 widely in the US, and 125 in foreign theaters. It is simply not possible for all 400 movies to have a simultaneous global release. Theater owners must take a "wait and see" approach for many films. I also don't agree with your 6 month figure, but I'd be happy to be proven wrong.…

Movies like the saw series seemed to do this fine, opened pretty much everywhere one the same day. Sure not every movie can get the same limited screen space, but the big movies that are getting the most online downloads probably can.

Re: The Avengers: Why Pirates Failed To Prevent A Box Office Record

#102

Post by DeepDuh »

jswanson wrote: post #100
jcampbell1 wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am perplexed by your comment about overseas release dates. There has been an absolutely massive compression in release dates in the past 5 years. Most obvious blockbusters are now globally released, and the spread for smaller films has also been contracting. Avengers was released overseas prior to the US release. A film like The Descendants was released 4 weeks early in NY/LA, and then foreign releases were only 6…

Japan still lags behind the US for most big-ticket films. Avengers won't open here until 2012/08/17, more than three months after the US release date. [1] That's a month ahead of the projected blu-ray release of the film though. It's really hit and miss, but most of the more major films lag by two to three months. 1 - http://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E3%82%A2%E3%83%99%E3%83%B3%E3%...

Japan probably has one of the lowest piracy rates, so they don't seem to be forced to release earlier there. Japan's own media is even more backwards, most of their media never gets international releases although there is a big fansub scene. They don't seem to need the money.

Re: The Avengers: Why Pirates Failed To Prevent A Box Office Record

#103

Post by redthrowaway »

tptacek wrote: post #74

Fatuous. A cam'd version of The Avengers is not a market substitute for seeing the movie in a theater. Of the movies you could possibly consider this way, The Avengers is among the least amenable to substitution via cam'd copies. All the widely-available torrents of The Avengers are cam'd or equivalent. There aren't screeners circulating. A DVD rip is a near-perfect substitute for a DVD (or a streamed version of the…

I accidentally upvoted you, but the so-called "fatuous" claim you deride is the exact opposite of what the article is claiming. You would have known this had you clicked the link and read the third sentence.

Re: The Avengers: Why Pirates Failed To Prevent A Box Office Record

#104

Post by tptacek »

redthrowaway wrote: post #103
tptacek wrote: post #74

Fatuous. A cam'd version of The Avengers is not a market substitute for seeing the movie in a theater. Of the movies you could possibly consider this way, The Avengers is among the least amenable to substitution via cam'd copies. All the widely-available torrents of The Avengers are cam'd or equivalent. There aren't screeners circulating. A DVD rip is a near-perfect substitute for a DVD (or a streamed version of the…

I accidentally upvoted you, but the so-called "fatuous" claim you deride is the exact opposite of what the article is claiming. You would have known this had you clicked the link and read the third sentence.

My point is that nobody seriously thinks camcorded movies are what's killing the movie industry.

Re: The Avengers: Why Pirates Failed To Prevent A Box Office Record

#105

Post by 2muchcoffeeman »

vibrunazo wrote: post #22
iamben wrote: post #17

For me it usually comes down to the 'is it worth it?' Avengers was worth it - you knew it was going to be great in 3D, explosions, cinema sound, Iron Man, etc. Whilst I begrudged paying £16 (~$26 US) for me and the girlfriend (before even thinking about drinks / popcorn) we were always going to see it in the cinema. Compare that to a film that doesn't excite me (or most of the general population), and all of a sudden…

> you knew it was going to be great in 3D Quick off-topic question. Is the 3d version worth it here? Usually most 3d films is 3d just because, but make no real good use of it. But being 3d just adds an extra unnecessary eye strain. This is why I watched the Avengers on 2d. But is this one of those rare movies (like avatar) where the 3d version is actually better? If so, I might go back and watch it again.

As far as I know, to date only 2 films have actually been filmed in 3D, Avatar and Sanctum. Which is probably why the 3D is done well.

Re: The Avengers: Why Pirates Failed To Prevent A Box Office Record

#106

Post by nitrogen »

sliverstorm wrote: post #80
nextparadigms wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Imagine how much money they could make if they released a 1080p HD version online, globally, 4 weeks at most after the launch in cinemas, and for a price of $5. That may or may not kill the cinemas in the long term, depending on how hard they fight to become more competitive and unique compared to watching the movie at home, but it would definitely not hurt the studios and movie makers. If anything, they stand to mak…

720p or 480p would be more realistic; the bandwidth costs for serving 1080p would chew through that $5 pretty quickly. (Assuming reasonable video bitrates) Besides, a very large chunk of consumers own machines that cannot handle 1080p. Before you scream bloody murder, remember DVDs are only 480p.

Let's assume that a 1080p movie encoded for streaming using H.264 ends up at 8GB (a generous overestimate for most movies). At entry-level datacenter pricing of $0.10/GB, bandwidth costs will leave $4.20 for the rest of the supply chain.

Re: The Avengers: Why Pirates Failed To Prevent A Box Office Record

#107

Post by moe »

jcampbell1 wrote: post #78
rickmb wrote: post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This only involves the top blockbusters. For most other US produced movies the waiting time for releases can easily be well over 6 months. Besides, 6 weeks is still a long time in the age of instant global communication. Basically, all the hype and buzz surrounding a film starts well before the release and dramatically drops a week after. After a month, people have pretty much forgotten about it. This hurts sales eve…

I agree that simultaneous releases are best for sales, but that ignores reality. Lets assume 400 movies are screened per year in NY/LA, 200 widely in the US, and 125 in foreign theaters. It is simply not possible for all 400 movies to have a simultaneous global release. Theater owners must take a "wait and see" approach for many films. I also don't agree with your 6 month figure, but I'd be happy to be proven wrong.…

It is simply not possible for all 400 movies to have a simultaneous global release. Theater owners must take a "wait and see" approach for many films.

Who cares about theaters?

I haven't been in a movie theater in 5 years - it just doesn't appeal to me at all. And I know for a fact that many of my friends who used to be cinema-buffs don't care much anymore either.

We prefer to watch films in our home-cinemas now, on a big flatscreen or beamer.

Consequently we use the first release in watchable quality that we can get. And often that's from PirateBay. Not because we'd be unwilling to pay $9.99 for a HD movie on iTunes, but simply because most movies appear 6 months earlier on the torrents.

If iTunes launched in parallel with the theaters we would buy all movies.

Re: The Avengers: Why Pirates Failed To Prevent A Box Office Record

#108

Post by MengYuanLong »

jswanson wrote: post #100
jcampbell1 wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am perplexed by your comment about overseas release dates. There has been an absolutely massive compression in release dates in the past 5 years. Most obvious blockbusters are now globally released, and the spread for smaller films has also been contracting. Avengers was released overseas prior to the US release. A film like The Descendants was released 4 weeks early in NY/LA, and then foreign releases were only 6…

Japan still lags behind the US for most big-ticket films. Avengers won't open here until 2012/08/17, more than three months after the US release date. [1] That's a month ahead of the projected blu-ray release of the film though. It's really hit and miss, but most of the more major films lag by two to three months. 1 - http://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E3%82%A2%E3%83%99%E3%83%B3%E3%...

Wow, that is crazy. I am really shocked that I got to watch it sooner in China than you did in Japan. I wonder why there is such a difference between the two countries...

Re: The Avengers: Why Pirates Failed To Prevent A Box Office Record

#110

Post by thirdsun »

moe wrote: post #107
jcampbell1 wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree that simultaneous releases are best for sales, but that ignores reality. Lets assume 400 movies are screened per year in NY/LA, 200 widely in the US, and 125 in foreign theaters. It is simply not possible for all 400 movies to have a simultaneous global release. Theater owners must take a "wait and see" approach for many films. I also don't agree with your 6 month figure, but I'd be happy to be proven wrong.…

It is simply not possible for all 400 movies to have a simultaneous global release. Theater owners must take a "wait and see" approach for many films. Who cares about theaters? I haven't been in a movie theater in 5 years - it just doesn't appeal to me at all. And I know for a fact that many of my friends who used to be cinema-buffs don't care much anymore either. We prefer to watch films in our home-cinemas now, on…

You're right. I'm from germany and haven't been in a theater for years but I own a beamer. Additionally going to a theater would involve driving about 50 km just to get there as I live in a rural area. Furthermore I prefer to watch movies in their original language (well, as long as it is english).

I wish movie distribution was up to the standards we expect when buying music these days. Ditch DRM, just offer me the files and let me re-download them at any time via my account. Streaming is an option but for me bandwith is limited (speed, not volume) while harddisk space is cheap. Plus XBMC + Apple TV + NAS lets me build up my own film archive.

unfortunately and in contrast to the process of buying music we aren't there yet with movies.

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