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How Google's Self-Driving Car Works

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Re: How Google's Self-Driving Car Works

#71

Post by Qworg »

jsnell wrote: post #67
Qworg wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Doubtful. Most of these companies want to own the tech. I'm actually concerned they won't be able to sell it if they tried - Chrysler is actively developing a self-driving system that they hope to deploy in 2 years.

Really? I'm no expert, but this seems like a market where it'd be natural for there to be only a few major players, rather than every manufacturer having their proprietary implementations. Why would you build an in-house system rather than buy one? Generally because buying is more expensive in the long run, because you can build a better one, or because keeping the expertise in-house allows for more chances of integr…

There are very few standardized systems in the automotive industry, especially for "luxury items". Recently, that's changed with some manufacturers using the same undercarriage to build different cars. It would take a huge change in the mindset of a car manufacturer to buy something like this that could be a competitive advantage.

Re: How Google's Self-Driving Car Works

#72

Post by HNatWORK »

ctdonath wrote: post #9

Everything Google does feeds back, somehow, to data mining. How does self-driving cars fit in to Google's plans? ETA: Downvoted for asking a serious question? WTH?

Everything except for some of the Google X Labs projects, of which this is one.

I'm going to take an optimistic tack and say they're doing this for the PR benefits of being seen as creating new technology that gives people tools they never thought they could have, somewhat like Microsoft has done with the Kinect.

Re: How Google's Self-Driving Car Works

#73

Post by pbw »

bunderbunder wrote: post #57
pbw wrote: post #16

The technology is impressive, but humans drive okay without LIDAR, radar, or GPS. Maybe some day self-driving cars can drive using only two small visible-light sensors located above and behind the steering wheel. It might just be an AI challenge to operate that way, and commercial systems will always employ advanced sensors for better safety. But I don't think true parity has been reached until they can drive like we…

Two thoughts: Cars are far-and-away the biggest killer of people in my age group. I sincerely hope that we are not going for true parity, and they will not end up driving like we do. Using a couple stereoscopic pictures to get the lay of the land is a very, very error-prone process. Humans have to make do with it because we have very limited sensory equipment available to us. Computers can and should make use of the…

> I sincerely hope that we are not going for true parity

Commercial driverless cars will blow humans out of the water in safety and reliability. That is the goal and should be goal. To achieve the goal multiple sensors can and should be used.

But separately AI researchers will continue to improve and evolve their algorithms. One avenue for improvement is to operate with fewer sensors. A human driver can drive passably well on any road without LIDAR or radar or GPS. In time computers can and should be able to do the same. We will benefit from that capability, even if in general driverless cars make use of other sensors.

Re: How Google's Self-Driving Car Works

#74

Post by henrikschroder »

yread wrote: post #6

I wonder how long will it take till the price of something like this gets to reasonable levels. The lidar and other sensors probably won't get cheap anytime soon. Imagine the costs of Google having to drive through all the places first, mapping them. Then the massive insurance until its proven that self-driving cars are safer (and then it will probably get expensive again after a first accident) Perhaps it would make…

The first to use this technology will be long-haul cargo companies, and it will happen when the technology will be cheaper than having truck drivers employed, and when the safety is good enough.

I imagine a scenario where trucks will drive themselves at night, over the long distances, when few people are around, and when they get close to cities, a real truck driver will jump in and navigate to the end destination, in the day, when there's a lot of people around.

And not until people are used to self-driving trucks will the tech be available for personal transportation, even though the technology will be good enough and increase safety before that.

(In the same way self-flying airplanes will come to cargo transports first, and human transport much later)

Re: How Google's Self-Driving Car Works

#75

Post by stellar678 »

div wrote: post #4

Once legislation is updated to allow self-driving cars in most parts of the world, I wonder how profitable self-driving cars could be for Google. About 77 million cars were produced in 2010. With the appropriate licensing, a percentage of that could make a very nice profit. I should buy some Google stock :)

If autonomous cars become significantly safer in terms of the number of accidents, you could make a strong argument for lighter and lower-density of structural materials, less passenger safety features, just significantly simpler cars.

Of course that would depend on getting all the cars on the road to be self-driving - you don't want your crashless 500 pound Google car getting smashed by a behemoth human-driven Smart Car.

But if you significantly reduced the materials cost in the car, that opens a big margin for Google to trade in.

Re: How Google's Self-Driving Car Works

#76

Post by marshallp »

HNatWORK wrote: post #72
ctdonath wrote: post #9

Everything Google does feeds back, somehow, to data mining. How does self-driving cars fit in to Google's plans? ETA: Downvoted for asking a serious question? WTH?

Everything except for some of the Google X Labs projects, of which this is one. I'm going to take an optimistic tack and say they're doing this for the PR benefits of being seen as creating new technology that gives people tools they never thought they could have, somewhat like Microsoft has done with the Kinect.

Microsoft made bank with the kinect. Also, google is in serious danger of being killed by facebook (more data = better search results), so google needs another huge profit stream. Running the entire transportation infrastructure can be that (there will be competitors, but with google's superior tech talent, their vehicles will be safer and hence win).

Re: How Google's Self-Driving Car Works

#77

Post by magicalist »

dangrossman wrote: post #32
div wrote: post #4

Once legislation is updated to allow self-driving cars in most parts of the world, I wonder how profitable self-driving cars could be for Google. About 77 million cars were produced in 2010. With the appropriate licensing, a percentage of that could make a very nice profit. I should buy some Google stock :)

I don't see what Google's role is going to be, aside from pushing forward legislation for unknown reasons. The auto manufacturers don't need them for the technology and research... they've all had access to that for just as long. We'd have self-driving cars today if the public (and regulators) were ready for it. But they're not and aren't going to be overnight; what makes more sense is to gradually introduce the feat…

This assumes that the path to a self driving car is a smooth function that you can incrementally follow, rather than automatic parking and collision warnings just being easy problems compared to the messiness of general driving.

No company is indispensable in the evolution of a market, but I think it is possible that abandoning the incremental approach and starting with the full problem will turn out to be the one to get us all the way there, instead of a car that can correct oversteer and warn us in 90% of situations that we're about to make a mistake. Of course, like with many products, once one group shows the way, the only thing holding everyone else back is patents and data (especially geographic in this case).

Re: How Google's Self-Driving Car Works

#78

Post by fr0sty »

MaysonL wrote: post #64
huherto wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don''t know. It is my impression that traditional companies are not able to produce complex software. I guess there are many paradigms that you have to break to become a software company. It seems to me that is the reason why cell phone companies ended up buying their O.S. from google.

Spend some time studying what current auto engines are, and how much software they embody. I'm not sure how much of it has been developed by the auto companies themselves, but there's quite a lot of it, and it's pretty robust: how ofter has your car OS crashed lately?

Modern engine control is a collection of lookup tables and feedback loops with some preprogrammed "limp" modes to fall back on if things go pear-shaped.

Robust? yes. Adaptive? yes. Complex? not really. Computer vision, road/object/hazard detection and avoidance and the like much much harder problems to solve.

Re: How Google's Self-Driving Car Works

#79

Post by revelation »

You may giggle at Googles attempts to catch up with Facebook, but looking at this video.. boy, they are way ahead. Google isn't so much a search company, its an innovation company. They are already building the next trillion dollar industry while Facebook is optimizing sharing cat pictures.

Re: How Google's Self-Driving Car Works

#80

Post by noonespecial »

omegant wrote: post #14

It is normal for pedestrians to look for eye contact in order to know if a driver will yield the right of way or simply will accelerate and pass (in light less crosswalks). In dense pedestrian cities (I am from Spain) it is very usual to have some guessing and false start stop between the pedestrian and the driver, nobody seems to know who is going to yield finally. I wonder if this is been thought and how you'll sig…

I guessing the robots will behave a great deal more deterministically than the humans. Its the old style human driven cars that will need the warning lights.
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