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Diseconomies of scale in fraud, spam, support, and moderation

danluu.com

201–210 of 216 posts

Re: Diseconomies of scale in fraud, spam, support, and moderation

#201

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Economies of scale in commodities is the thing that makes it so we don’t have to do sustenance farming and everyone gets to have sewn clothes on :) There are really two different kinds of economies of scale. One is the one you ordinarily think of, where you're big enough to amortize certain fixed costs over a lot of units so the fixed costs become a small part of the price. But the scale you need for this isn't all…

I agree in general, but note some industries are exceptions from that rule. For example, for Boeing and Airbus these two scales are pretty close because modern airliners are very expensive per unit, and fixed R&D and tooling costs are sky high. Another example is TSMC. However, none of that applies to internet search, social networks, web services, and most other goods and services.

> I agree in general, but note some industries are exceptions from that rule.

Not as many as you might think.

> For example, for Boeing and Airbus these two scales are pretty close because modern airliners are very expensive per unit, and fixed R&D and tooling costs are sky high.

Things that are very expensive per unit are where you don't need economies of scale, because the unit cost can absorb a lot of bespoke custom work.

What's going on in the airline industry is regulatory capture. Instead of training pilots how to fly "planes" and requiring planes to have standardized controls, the law requires them to be trained on a specific plane from a specific manufacturer. So the law requires the pilots to have "economies of scale" in order to make new design viable, even though a given pilot is generally going to be flying the same type of plane all the time or only one of a very small number and individual pilot training is extremely expensive (also as a result of regulatory rules).

The incumbents like this because it makes it hard for anyone new to enter the market because customers don't want to recertify their pilots on a new type of plane. The rationale for this is nominally safety, but it's not accidentally structured in a way that creates a regulatory barrier to entry, and it's the thing that led to the 737 MAX debacle, which is not an instance of safety occurring.

You also have design vs. manufacturing. Boeing doesn't have to be a vertically integrated conglomerate. One company could design a plane and then license the design to arbitrarily many others to manufacture them. The manufacturing companies themselves wouldn't have to be vertically integrated, you could have separate companies each making screws and fuselages and doing final assembly.

The designs could be protected by patents which then expire, so that anyone could manufacture the already-certified design of a plane once the patents expire.

This is all happening the way it is because the laws are purposely structured to make it happen, not because of any intrinsic characteristic of the underlying economics.

> Another example is TSMC.

This is plausibly the best real example, but it's also kind of not. TSMC currently has the best process, but it's only marginally better than Intel or Samsung. There are instances where that matters, but even more instances where it doesn't, and it wouldn't be two years of TSMC resting on their laurels before they were overtaken. And there are a lot more companies in semiconductor manufacturing than even those three: Global Foundaries, Nanya, SK Hynix, Micron, SMIC, Kioxia, etc.

What's really happening there is that it's a highly competitive industry where spending more on R&D yields an advantage. That isn't exactly economies of scale, it's more like the other way around. You get lots of scale if you have a competitive process that customers want.

Conversely, you get a competitive process by spending a lot of money, which is fungible and doesn't inherently need to come from having any scale at all in the existing industry. People speculate about Apple designing their own semiconductor process even though they don't currently even have their own fabs, and they could viably do it, not because they have extensive existing internal fabrication volume but only because they have money.

And Apple gets their money from having a lot of scale in another industry, but you don't even need that. All it would take is a charismatic CEO capable of getting the investment spigot open and then the money comes from telling a story to investors rather than any existing business of the company.

Compare this to, say, auto manufacturing. There are typically only one or two fabs on the world's best process node at any given time and if you built one you'd be the new TSMC as fast as you could tell anyone about it. Whereas Tesla has car designs that people are willing to buy, but it will probably be a decade from the release of the Model 3 before they can manufacture as many cars as Toyota does, and as a result they currently have to amortize their R&D over fewer units.

Re: Diseconomies of scale in fraud, spam, support, and moderation

#202
post #193

The issue is law. If a "ban" was considered "defamation" and you could take a FAANG to court and be awarded $1 Million in damages, suddenly FAANGs would be superb at avoiding false positive bans.

There's a kernel of a good idea here, but banning someone from a platform isn't defamation by any reasonable interpretation.

In what way are unwarranted bans not defamation?

Anyone who used to see your account and watched it suddenly go away is under the impression that you "did something bad which got you banned". That is a public statement about your character.

If you did NOT do something bad, that should be actionable.

Re: Diseconomies of scale in fraud, spam, support, and moderation

#203

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well what can you do? Trace their IP back to a VPN or web of proxies? Or more likely grandmas infected Windows XP computer? Then what? Start kicking doors down? Going to get the FBI involved for a $20 purchase? Reminds me of Lebowski asking the cops about his Credence tape.

> to a VPN or web of proxies? Or more likely grandmas infected Windows XP computer? Legislation can be changed so people are considered responsible for the abuse that comes from their network unless they can pass the buck to someone else. This will quickly cause those Windows XP machines to fall off the internet unless their owners fancy constantly being bogged down in legal trouble. > Going to get the FBI involved f…

$20 seems cheap; not long ago scooter operators would lose hundreds to theft at least, with little interest.

Re: Diseconomies of scale in fraud, spam, support, and moderation

#204

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Blizzard doesn't get paid for reporting fraud. They lose money. So what's the incentive for them to give a damn? They'll just push it back to the CC companies to deal with, if anything.

> So what's the incentive for them to give a damn? Do you only do things that you get paid to do?

At work? 100% yes. If it's out of scope for my role or the project, it gets kicked up.

Re: Diseconomies of scale in fraud, spam, support, and moderation

#205

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I guess I forgot to repeat the part about "extremely large" there. But I mean like "all economies of scale beyond a certain point". In any case, I'm not sure I agree that economies of scale are the thing keeping food on the table. Like, yes, we want nails to be made in some efficient way, but that's not what I mean by "economies of scale". What I'm talking about is the size of the companies involved. If there are 10…

I’m being unnecessarily confrontational because I’m having a bad day, sorry, that’s not helpful. I would say this: I agree with you that massive faceless monopolies with no accountability are terrible, and often a direct consequence of economies of scale. It is also , simultaneously , true that the labour saving effects - human hours spent per calorie of food or pair of socks - is a number of orders of magnitude such…

I mean, again, I think that's true, but only up to a point. Basically what I'm saying is that up to a certain point economies of scale are good for production, and beyond that they mostly just become good for profit.

I feel like the main problem people are having with my comment is I said "virtually all" economies of scale and forgot to say "beyond a certain point". By "all" I meant "across all domains" (as opposed to just content moderation), not "of every possible size all the way down to individual artisans". I agree that there is some level of economy of scale that is probably required for things like production of clothes, but I think we should try to keep companies close to that level.

Re: Diseconomies of scale in fraud, spam, support, and moderation

#206

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> So what's the incentive for them to give a damn? Do you only do things that you get paid to do?

At work? 100% yes. If it's out of scope for my role or the project, it gets kicked up.

So if it is out of scope for your role or the project you mention the issue to someone else who's job it is to resolve those types of problems or do you make no such report and just hope they figure it out themselves? It's unclear which you mean.

Re: Diseconomies of scale in fraud, spam, support, and moderation

#207
post #7

The real "economy of scale" in these platforms is not actually providing any support , moderation, fraud prevention. It's not that they scale it better, it's just that they don't do it and get away with it through market power. If I provide Andy's small town taxi service and have a customer service issue, I deal with it personally and properly or I go out of business. If I'm uber I just ignore it. It has nothing to d…

> If I'm uber I just ignore it. It has nothing to do with efficiency, it's just getting the monopoly power to treat your customers badly and get away with it. People don’t use Uber because they’re a monopoly. They use it because it’s convenient, it’s a known quantity, it’s mostly predictable, and they can use it almost anywhere they go. People like to complain about Uber, but my pre-Uber experience with taxi services…

[deleted]

Re: Diseconomies of scale in fraud, spam, support, and moderation

#208

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At work? 100% yes. If it's out of scope for my role or the project, it gets kicked up.

So if it is out of scope for your role or the project you mention the issue to someone else who's job it is to resolve those types of problems or do you make no such report and just hope they figure it out themselves? It's unclear which you mean.

If we are talking about credit card fraud for World of Warcraft accounts, the cost to fight it is far higher than ignoring it or kicking it back to your credit card company. There is 0 incentive for them to care other than doing the bare minimum because it's not their problem, it's the credit card company's problem.

They offer MFA and that's all they should have to do.

Re: Diseconomies of scale in fraud, spam, support, and moderation

#209
post #186
post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I used to work IT helpdesk and once spent weeks trying to find out why my company’s emails were getting bounced all of the sudden. We had just switched to Microsoft’s hosted exchange (office 365) so we figured that must be it. I escalated the issue until I got some very technical folks on the phone, but all they could say was that everything looked 100% fine and that something we were sending was tripping the spam fi…

I mean that one was pretty obvious. Why on earth send a bit.ly link in every email? You have a-hrefs in email, so the link doesn’t even need to be shortened. > I got some very technical folks on the phone, but all they could say was that everything looked 100% fine and that something we were sending was tripping the spam filters This “we won’t tell you what triggered it because it helps the spammers” is… questionable…

The bit.ly link was to track how many people clicked on it, for marketing purposes I guess.

As for the support team on our email provider’s side, they didn’t know what was tripping it. We simply got to a point where we ruled everything else out. The only thing left was the content of the email being legitimately spammy, somehow.

Our email provider wasn’t the one that was filtering our emails, at any rate, rather it was the recipient email systems.

Re: Diseconomies of scale in fraud, spam, support, and moderation

#210

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So if it is out of scope for your role or the project you mention the issue to someone else who's job it is to resolve those types of problems or do you make no such report and just hope they figure it out themselves? It's unclear which you mean.

If we are talking about credit card fraud for World of Warcraft accounts, the cost to fight it is far higher than ignoring it or kicking it back to your credit card company. There is 0 incentive for them to care other than doing the bare minimum because it's not their problem, it's the credit card company's problem. They offer MFA and that's all they should have to do.

Did you dodge the question because you knew that you couldn't be consistent or because you felt that bringing up a new topic was better?

> There is 0 incentive for them to care other than doing the bare minimum because it's not their problem, it's the credit card company's problem.

I don't buy this and it sounds incredibly myopic. If it wasn't "their problem" then they wouldn't be doing anything about it. Which the OP talked about. So they aren't just taking the money and letting the credit card companies handle it, that doesn't even make any sense. Credit card companies have to get the money back. Honestly, it sounds cheaper to report it if reporting it leads to a significant reduction because you then have to pay fewer people to deal with this issue and process far fewer charge-backs. It's not much work to do (literally create a program to automate filling out a forum to the gov). We're arguing over less than a week's amount of work.

Plus, it's the right thing to do. Idk about you, but money doesn't run my entire life. Letting it seems incredibly myopic as well. Money is just a tool to help me better my life but it sure isn't the only way to do that. And if we're not trying to do "the right thing" then the fuck do we even have a society for? Seriously, please reconsider your actions, because you're enabling the shittiness in society. I'm not saying you gotta be a saint, but if there's a pretty cheap action you can do to make your society any bit better, just do it.

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