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Talent is everywhere, opportunity is not. We are all losing out because of this

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Re: Talent is everywhere, opportunity is not. We are all losing out because of this

#21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you have any evidence to support your claim?

we pay software engineers 3x median income to barely know react service jobs and skilled trades all over are facing labor shortages

We do?

I'd really like to see where these jobs are at the moment because I'd like one so I can stop busting my ass in embedded for 1.5x median income.

Every time I search it looks to me like all the jobs that take people that just barely know React have a big long list of other requirements that are unstated and/or nutjob hiring practices and other hoops to jump through. Maybe all you need on the job is React but it looks like passing the interview is a nightmare even compared to the interviews we give for people writing embedded and systems software. The prevalence of LeetCode is surprisingly massively more common for React developer interviews it seems than it is for people like me that actually need and use that kind of knowledge regularly.

So something doesn't add up for me here. My anecdotal impression was that the frontend has a much larger amount of people that are fighting over very limited spots and is thus hyper competitive (and maybe even downright corrupt in terms of hiring practices), even if the job itself is probably the easiest if we are judging based on "CS cred" or background knowledge requirements about computers or whatever. And that makes me think once your in it that I'm going to feel compelled to work 60+ hour weeks because the danger of losing the job and needing to win the hiring lottery again is so great.

React is the programmer equivalent of the phenomenon of the starving artist with a liberal arts degree. Maybe you have a chance to strike it rich, but most just wind up unemployed or in a chop shop on some horrible contract.

Re: Talent is everywhere, opportunity is not. We are all losing out because of this

#22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

idt we can simply blame the next rung up the ladder. we live in a culture that increasingly glorifies mediocrity and flattery. the hiring managers and engineers alike have been reared to believe the only difference from one person to the next is sensibilities, so any judgment on talent is a failure to support

The CEO/C-Suite/Board is responsible for the behavior of the company; they set the rules, and steer the "ship." They decide what money is allocated where. I'm not sure who is glorifying mediocrity, that's an odd one.

Close, but actually large PE firms call the shots. A small number of them control most tech, that’s why all these companies look like cookie cutter copies of each other.

Re: Talent is everywhere, opportunity is not. We are all losing out because of this

#23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

we pay software engineers 3x median income to barely know react service jobs and skilled trades all over are facing labor shortages

We do? I'd really like to see where these jobs are at the moment because I'd like one so I can stop busting my ass in embedded for 1.5x median income. Every time I search it looks to me like all the jobs that take people that just barely know React have a big long list of other requirements that are unstated and/or nutjob hiring practices and other hoops to jump through. Maybe all you need on the job is React but it…

If you feel you are underpaid, you should leave regardless. Re React jobs, its probably harder now to get in due to the VC bubble bursting a bit after zero percent rates went aeay, but it used to be a very viable path to earn double median US wages after a year or less of experience.

You are down pretty hard on it, when the reality is more conplicated. I personally don’t know many developers who actually work 60 hour weeks, though a lot work intense 45 hour ones thay feel like 60. 60 hours a week is a lot man, if you are working that much you should take a breather.

Re: Talent is everywhere, opportunity is not. We are all losing out because of this

#24
What does talent even mean anymore?

What did it ever mean?

Trying to quantify it through tests is such a… bullshit proposition. If you had Steve Jobs take a math test in third grade, I don’t think he would have done very well. Or maybe he would have - I don’t know. Some people only discover math later in life, some people can do trivial math in elementary school very well but completely fail once they get into geometry and logical proofs.

The point of the article is common sense - if everyone in the world had the time to develop like Steve Jobs and work through their bs, then we would likely have more successful adults in the Central African Republic. It just goes to show you how powerful environment is - and why everyone wants to move to America. A good reminder to be thankful to live in this country.

Re: Talent is everywhere, opportunity is not. We are all losing out because of this

#25
post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the point is that capitalism drives that technological innovation.

No, you see, only the bad parts of our current society are attributable to capitalism. /s

That's what I was trying to get at. It would be unfair to not give capitalism any of the credit for the advances that we have made (after all, people certainly blame it when things have stagnated), but it's probably also not fair to give it all of the credit. There were technological advances long before capitalism and many (most?) basic research takes place outside of capitalism in academia.

Re: Talent is everywhere, opportunity is not. We are all losing out because of this

#26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The CEO/C-Suite/Board is responsible for the behavior of the company; they set the rules, and steer the "ship." They decide what money is allocated where. I'm not sure who is glorifying mediocrity, that's an odd one.

Close, but actually large PE firms call the shots. A small number of them control most tech, that’s why all these companies look like cookie cutter copies of each other.

PE firms do exert massive influence, but they aren't really the day to day business drivers. Even including the board is tenuous. Board members are often out of touch with the business and just rubber stamps - look how well the OpenAI board performed. If you think Sam Altman should have been fired, they failed, and if you think he should not have been fired, they failed.

Re: Talent is everywhere, opportunity is not. We are all losing out because of this

#27
There are some intriguing observations which indicate that talent is, indeed, a lot more common than thought, but needs specific conditions to thrive.

1. "The Martians" - a group of Jewish Hungarian scientists from the early 20th century, who were about the most prominent in their fields and significantly advanced global scientific knowledge, even though Hungary wasn't a particularly rich or big nation at that time.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Martians_(scientists)

2. The painters of Renaissance Florence - within approximately 200 years, one (albeit rich) city in Italy produced an enormous volume of high-quality art.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Florentine_painting

3. The Bell Labs around 1950-1960 - an enormous concentration of tech talent that produced much of the foundations of current IT

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bell_Labs

Notably, none of those groups/centers are productive today. The mojo can be lost again.

Re: Talent is everywhere, opportunity is not. We are all losing out because of this

#28
Not only is talent everywhere, but opportunity is everywhere too - it just takes different forms and the resources necessary to capture that opportunity are not evenly distributed. I live in small town America. We have a ton of opportunity here, but there's no question that the labor, capital, and similar resources needed to unlock that opportunity is far more challenging to gather here than it would be in large coastal cities. Similarly, there are talented people here - for example, we have colleges and a nearby national lab - but keeping those people here and putting them to work is not easy.

Re: Talent is everywhere, opportunity is not. We are all losing out because of this

#29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, you see, only the bad parts of our current society are attributable to capitalism. /s

That's what I was trying to get at. It would be unfair to not give capitalism any of the credit for the advances that we have made (after all, people certainly blame it when things have stagnated), but it's probably also not fair to give it all of the credit. There were technological advances long before capitalism and many (most?) basic research takes place outside of capitalism in academia.

But there's a pretty long way to go from basic research to usable technology for regular people. Of course advancement would happen without capitalism, but would it happen at a similar pace? Society socialism didn't seem to be able to keep up (eg computers).

Re: Talent is everywhere, opportunity is not. We are all losing out because of this

#30

“To study ability, they matched a subset of their data on inventors with records of their math scores back when they were third graders.4 To study the role that circumstances play, the research team matched the inventor dataset with tax record data that allowed them to study the socio-economic situation they grew up in.” That is when the credibility of the study is lost on me. Maths scores and creativity/innovation a…

>the credibility of the study is lost on me.

For me it's the pure survivorship bias.

>“Who becomes an inventor in America?” is the title of a study by Alex Bell, Raj Chetty, Xavier Jaravel, Neviana Petkova, and John Van Reenen published in 2019.

>It is based on an impressively comprehensive dataset. The authors studied the lives of 1.2 million inventors in the US from birth to adulthood.

True to the title of the study, but it doesn't appear to speak about lost opportunities which were actually (not theoretically) hindering those who were not in the study.

To get a more accurate picture you would need to more intensively study those who would have realized a significant invention, with only the lack of opportunity as a roadblock. You wouldn't be able to locate subjects like that nearly as easily as published inventors. They don't have any directory of non-published near-inventors ;)

Talent is everywhere but it is quite rare.

Still in excess compared to opportunity though.

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