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OpenAI completes deal that values the company at $80B

nytimes.com

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Re: OpenAI completes deal that values the company at $80B

#41

Post by steego »

throwaway49849 wrote: post #40
steego wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You think the total valuation of all companies divided by the total number of people comes out to a few cents? The US GDP per capita was $80k in 2023. The global GDP per capita is $13K. Even if you were to split up the valuation of OpenAI for every single person in the world, everyone would be getting $10. How did you arrive at a few cents and what point are you actually trying to make?

>You think the total valuation of all companies divided by the total number of people comes out to a few cents? No, where did I say that? The person I was replying to wants to share OpenAI's value specifically, so I only mention OpenAI. Also, I didn't say "a few cents", I said cents, intended as a relative contrast to "millions." >The US GDP per capita was $80k in 2023. The global GDP per capita is $13K. Yes, and the…

I know it’s silly.

Speaking of which, how did you arrive at a few pennies in your estimate?

Re: OpenAI completes deal that values the company at $80B

#42

Post by throwaway49849 »

steego wrote: post #41
throwaway49849 wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>You think the total valuation of all companies divided by the total number of people comes out to a few cents? No, where did I say that? The person I was replying to wants to share OpenAI's value specifically, so I only mention OpenAI. Also, I didn't say "a few cents", I said cents, intended as a relative contrast to "millions." >The US GDP per capita was $80k in 2023. The global GDP per capita is $13K. Yes, and the…

I know it’s silly. Speaking of which, how did you arrive at a few pennies in your estimate?

See my edit above, I never said "a few pennies" or "a few cents", I said "cents" intended as a relative contrast to "millions." We don't know how much a company is worth if it is expected to be immediately destroyed upon purchase, so if "dollars" or "10s of dollars" is more palatable to you, feel free to mentally substitute that instead.

Re: OpenAI completes deal that values the company at $80B

#43

Post by glimshe »

jasfi wrote: post #39
thiago_fm wrote: post #19

AI Hype. Same applies to NVidia(40x sales valuation! The pickaxe seller). Their technology can be easily replicated given enough time, just look at open source LLMs already beating GPT3. Google, Claude and others showing their strengths, already par to GPT-4 and even better in some scenarios. Training is expensive, but it isn't expensive up to what they are valued at. It's good because that capital likely made a few…

With what Google are doing with Gemini, OpenAI are in danger of losing the LLM crown. I think they'll still have a solid brand, but perhaps not the best at anything. The competition in AI is too ferocious. But the first mover advantage they had will likely have very long-term benefits.

I tried the latest and greatest Gemini. In a few tasks I gave it, it did well but was clearly beaten by ChatGPT 4 (in some cases 3.5). It's still 1-2 years behind.

Re: OpenAI completes deal that values the company at $80B

#44

Post by 15457345234 »

mrcwinn wrote: post #16
Brajeshwar wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I believe that is not how it works. I'll guess that the Investors did not even saw those demo, neither are they regular users of OpenAI's products.

Every investor I know or talk to is a very, very, very regular user of OpenAI's products - probably to a fault.

Their brains must be scrambled like eggs from all the endless lies and hallucinations they're having to decipher

Re: OpenAI completes deal that values the company at $80B

#45

Post by plaidfuji »

thiago_fm wrote: post #19

AI Hype. Same applies to NVidia(40x sales valuation! The pickaxe seller). Their technology can be easily replicated given enough time, just look at open source LLMs already beating GPT3. Google, Claude and others showing their strengths, already par to GPT-4 and even better in some scenarios. Training is expensive, but it isn't expensive up to what they are valued at. It's good because that capital likely made a few…

> I find it hard to believe the current products OpenAI offers will have good revenue streams given to how competition is catching up

I have a hard time believing LLM products have good revenue streams at all, regardless of who’s making it. I still don’t use ChatGPT for anything. I think the developer world is obsessed with how well it generates code, but even that I don’t get the sense is worth $80B. I don’t find that feature to be extraordinarily useful, but I guess there are some codebases where it is? I don’t see the value-add applications outside of that. It’s not a search engine despite much hand-wringing about that. The whole document summarization / “style assistant” thing is a neat trick that might come in handy a few times a year. Chatbot girlfriends? Always money in porn I guess. Customer assistance bots? Annoying screen-waster. Writing internal emails? If you’re using it for that I’m sorry for you. Will anyone pay a standalone subscription fee for these in the long run or are they just flashy features to bake into existing products?

Maybe it’s because my knee-jerk response to hype of any kind is to apply extra doubt / scrutiny, idk.

Re: OpenAI completes deal that values the company at $80B

#46

Post by qwytw »

j7ake wrote: post #23
thiago_fm wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Given enough time they will and won't be able to get 70%+ margins for their hardware. There are multiple initiatives to eat their lunch which is based on Cuda.Their advantage isn't even in hardware, but rather how they've invested years and years in having integrated software + hardware solution for AI.

“Given enough time” assumes competition will catch up while leader stays idle. If leader is still innovating at a pace greater than any competition, then competition will never catch up.

ATM as far as as datacenter GPUs good the price/performance is the only metric that counts (power costs are almost insignificant relative to how much a H100/etc. costs).

So Intel only needs to come up with something relative cheap that's good enough (it can easily use > 4 times more power to perform the same task) to force Nvidia to cut their insane margins.

Re: OpenAI completes deal that values the company at $80B

#47

Post by steego »

throwaway49849 wrote: post #42
steego wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I know it’s silly. Speaking of which, how did you arrive at a few pennies in your estimate?

See my edit above, I never said "a few pennies" or "a few cents", I said "cents" intended as a relative contrast to "millions." We don't know how much a company is worth if it is expected to be immediately destroyed upon purchase, so if "dollars" or "10s of dollars" is more palatable to you, feel free to mentally substitute that instead.

“We don't know how much a company is worth if it is expected to be immediately destroyed upon purchase.”

That’s what you wanted to say.

Better, you could have lead with a question, “Why would someone buy a company at a huge premium if doing so immediately destroys the value upon purchase?”

Let’s try it out.

Re: OpenAI completes deal that values the company at $80B

#48

Post by jasfi »

glimshe wrote: post #43
jasfi wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

With what Google are doing with Gemini, OpenAI are in danger of losing the LLM crown. I think they'll still have a solid brand, but perhaps not the best at anything. The competition in AI is too ferocious. But the first mover advantage they had will likely have very long-term benefits.

I tried the latest and greatest Gemini. In a few tasks I gave it, it did well but was clearly beaten by ChatGPT 4 (in some cases 3.5). It's still 1-2 years behind.

Was that 1.5 Pro?

Re: OpenAI completes deal that values the company at $80B

#49

Post by steego »

bamboozled wrote: post #24
chris222 wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nvidia has 26,000 employees and is worth 1.8 trillion which puts it at 69 million/employee.

I bet most employees get a slight fraction of that 69 million. Imagine what having more millionaires would do for the world and the economy ? Such a silly system we’ve created.

Why would someone buy a company at a huge premium if that premium provides each employee financial freedom to leave, thus destroying the value of the company upon purchase?

We’re all disappointed with the inequities in reality on some level, but what would you suggest otherwise?

Do you at least recognize that a buyer would likely pay significantly less for a company if paying more meant employees (its most valuable asset) could just walk up and leave?

Re: OpenAI completes deal that values the company at $80B

#50

Post by sidibe »

jasfi wrote: post #48
glimshe wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I tried the latest and greatest Gemini. In a few tasks I gave it, it did well but was clearly beaten by ChatGPT 4 (in some cases 3.5). It's still 1-2 years behind.

Was that 1.5 Pro?

No. I don't think even the paid Gemini available now is behind ChatGPT4 for the things I use them for. People will be rooting for Google to lose this race but I think it's wishful thinking they were always too well positioned not to catch up and they've already done it IMO.

Whatever they lack in ability to make products is trumped by their infra + how game changing this stuff is so they were never going to just drop it even if it was just for internal use

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