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Timeline of the far future

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Re: Timeline of the far future

#71

Post by obtu »

krschultz wrote: post #69
obtu wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We've done things that seem like magic to some hunter-gatherer; that doesn't imply everything that seems like magic to us will come true. (does anyone have a catchy name for this fallacy?) The boundary between things we know to be possible and impossible is in fact stronger now, because (for most of the events in this timeline) we're now basing this knowledge on the laws of physics. Sidebar: future events that derive…

Based on what we believe the laws of physics to be, which isn't yet a fully settled question.

Sure. Quite possibly we'll just see refinements at the edges of what we have access to (because at most scales, physics is already very accurate) rather than outright revolutions.

Re: Timeline of the far future

#72

Post by hogworth »

acqq wrote: post #55

It's estimated that by 500,000 years from now on the Earth will have likely been impacted by a meteorite of roughly 1 km in diameter. http://www.tulane.edu/~sanelson/geol204/impacts.htm Here are the results of current attempts to track the objects that can potentially impact the Earth: http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/

>by 500,000 years from now on the Earth will have likely been impacted by a meteorite of roughly 1 km in diameter

Nah. Let's be optimistic. Within a few decades we will have developed the ability to deflect all dangerous asteroids.

Also, the idea in the article that we will allow the historically priceless Californian coast to disappear 100,000 centuries from now is preposterous. Our ability to alter geography has increased by orders of magnitude in the last century alone thanks to the development of earth moving machinery.

Ditto permitting the Sun to destroy the solar system, etc.

Re: Timeline of the far future

#73

Post by calinet6 »

hogworth wrote: post #72
acqq wrote: post #55

It's estimated that by 500,000 years from now on the Earth will have likely been impacted by a meteorite of roughly 1 km in diameter. http://www.tulane.edu/~sanelson/geol204/impacts.htm Here are the results of current attempts to track the objects that can potentially impact the Earth: http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/

>by 500,000 years from now on the Earth will have likely been impacted by a meteorite of roughly 1 km in diameter Nah. Let's be optimistic. Within a few decades we will have developed the ability to deflect all dangerous asteroids. Also, the idea in the article that we will allow the historically priceless Californian coast to disappear 100,000 centuries from now is preposterous. Our ability to alter geography has in…

> permitting the Sun to destroy the solar system, etc.

Ha, as if it needs our permission.

Re: Timeline of the far future

#74

Post by hogworth »

calinet6 wrote: post #73
hogworth wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>by 500,000 years from now on the Earth will have likely been impacted by a meteorite of roughly 1 km in diameter Nah. Let's be optimistic. Within a few decades we will have developed the ability to deflect all dangerous asteroids. Also, the idea in the article that we will allow the historically priceless Californian coast to disappear 100,000 centuries from now is preposterous. Our ability to alter geography has in…

> permitting the Sun to destroy the solar system, etc. Ha, as if it needs our permission.

What will prevent us from removing sufficient matter from the sun to make it safe?

Remember that we have 100s of millions of years in which to develop the required technology.

Re: Timeline of the far future

#76

Post by Symmetry »

aneth wrote: post #23
eliben wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Isn't this just a simple matter of probability? Given an event, however unprobable it is, it can happen given infinite time? From a purely mathematical standpoint, this is correct.

If your assumption is infinite time and complete entropy, yes it's correct. It's also why some level of common sense (e.g. Occam's razor) should be applied before such silliness is seriously proposed. I don't think Boltzmann assumes infinite time and entropy, just enough for the completely random emergence of sentient life that thinks (perhaps falsely) that it lives in a universe populated by similar beings who creat…

Occam's razor says that we should give more credence to the simpler theory, not the more commonsensical one, and I assure you that statistical mechanics is elegant in its simplicity. I hope you don't also go around telling biologists that its absurd that we're descended from Apes, or astronomers that its absurd that the Earth goes around the sun? How about atomic thoery (which Boltzman was an important proponent of)? Unlike the Bible Botzman was working from quantitative theories backed up by scientific experiments. You might say that being a famous scientist is almost the same as being someone who has said things that were regarded as utterly absurd, but which were true.

Re: Timeline of the far future

#77

Post by konceptz »

tybris wrote: post #48
Natsu wrote: post #24

I find it interesting how several of the events limit what anyone living then can observe about the past. It's almost as if the past itself is vanishing.

I always wonder what obvious truth about the universe we fail to see because of just such an event in our past.

Sounds like a chronar eclipse.

Re: Timeline of the far future

#78

Post by Symmetry »

majmun wrote: post #70
Symmetry wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

iPhones or Bibles probably are more common. And an isolated brain without an environment really is much more likely than a brain and body and environment, at least if we're talking about random fluctuations rather than structures created as a consequence of the the availability of useful energy in the environment. If you think about it in terms of the Canonical Ensemble the regions of states that correspond to "a bra…

This is simply not possible (maybe in star trek), because self-aware brain requires certain kind of environment to exist into. so if there is brain there is organized environment. probability that boltzman brain exist is 0%. probability that self-aware brain in an orginized environment exists : 100% probability that Bible exists in a some unimaginable place far far away: unknown. Anyway what is the point of this (Bol…

Brains, per se, don't require any sort of environment. If your head was somehow teleported into interstellar space it would take tens of milliseconds for the nerve impulses indicating that everything was not all right to be acquired and processed, and your consciousness would probably last for seconds beyond that.

The horror of the Boltzman Brain idea is that the vast majority of the conscious beings that will ever exist will be created in environments that cannot support them, and will promptly go insane and/or die.

Re: Timeline of the far future

#79

Post by aneth »

Symmetry wrote: post #78
majmun wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is simply not possible (maybe in star trek), because self-aware brain requires certain kind of environment to exist into. so if there is brain there is organized environment. probability that boltzman brain exist is 0%. probability that self-aware brain in an orginized environment exists : 100% probability that Bible exists in a some unimaginable place far far away: unknown. Anyway what is the point of this (Bol…

Brains, per se, don't require any sort of environment. If your head was somehow teleported into interstellar space it would take tens of milliseconds for the nerve impulses indicating that everything was not all right to be acquired and processed, and your consciousness would probably last for seconds beyond that. The horror of the Boltzman Brain idea is that the vast majority of the conscious beings that will ever e…

Yes, and such strange happenstance that all the human brains we've found so far have been in humans. We must be incredibly lucky to have picked this universe at odds of 1 in infinity where no human brains are suffering bodiless in space.

Re: Timeline of the far future

#80

Post by [deleted] »

Symmetry wrote: post #78
majmun wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is simply not possible (maybe in star trek), because self-aware brain requires certain kind of environment to exist into. so if there is brain there is organized environment. probability that boltzman brain exist is 0%. probability that self-aware brain in an orginized environment exists : 100% probability that Bible exists in a some unimaginable place far far away: unknown. Anyway what is the point of this (Bol…

Brains, per se, don't require any sort of environment. If your head was somehow teleported into interstellar space it would take tens of milliseconds for the nerve impulses indicating that everything was not all right to be acquired and processed, and your consciousness would probably last for seconds beyond that. The horror of the Boltzman Brain idea is that the vast majority of the conscious beings that will ever e…

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