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Alexei Navalny has died

reuters.com

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Re: Alexei Navalny has died

#451

Post by SXX »

empath-nirvana wrote: post #376
belter wrote: post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Russia is already under increasingly crippling sanctions You are surely joking... "IMF raises Russia growth outlook as war boosts economy - New 2024 forecast of 2.6% rise doubles previous prediction and prompts questions over sanctions against Moscow" - https://www.ft.com/content/21a5be9c-afaa-495f-b7af-cf9370931...

A) Russia is large enough that it doesn't really need foreign trade to have an economy B) We -- ie "the west" have no control over what India and China does wrt russia. If they keep buying Russian oil, we can't stop them.

West can't even stop it's banks from servicing Russia financial transactions or actually ban sales of heavy machinery that used to produce weapons...

Re: Alexei Navalny has died

#452

Post by kragen »

cglace wrote: post #144
KingOfCoders wrote: post #93

The (small) upside of all this missery, death and pain is Europe will lose some territory but gain it's own military security after decades of living from the US strategy alignment. Countries like Poland will no longer buy US weapons but increase European defense spending - they fear just like Ukraine that US congress just turns around and will stop delivering parts for F-35s in a conflict [0]. The US lost all it's t…

The US has provided more funding to Ukraine than the world combined by a large margin, and the lesson you take away is that the US is somehow at fault. The one bill that was blocked by Congress would be more support than Europe as a whole has provided to Ukraine to date. While I agree that European countries should start to take their defense seriously I don't see how you fault US support of Ukraine.

the usg considers russia one of its key rivals, and so this ukraine thing was a godsend for them: ukraine provides the cannon fodder to fight and die, usg provides the materiel, and russia doesn't have a casus belli to nuke new york. the usg gets all the benefits of fighting a land war with russia with almost none of the costs: no messy body bag parades on cnn, no psychologically disturbed veterans blowing up federal buildings in oklahoma, no sheets of radioactive glass that were until recently thriving metropolises, and no test of the us nuclear response capabilities

all it's cost so far, in direct terms, is a hundred billion dollars or so over a couple of years, in an economy with thirty trillion dollars a year of gdp. 0.2% of gdp, say. contrast with, for example, 2.5% for the apollo program, or 1% for the manhattan project

it sucks pretty bad for the ukrainians tho. and the russians. they're being ground into hamburger by the machinations of putin and the usg, jockeying for power. anyone with a scrap of human feeling is horrified by what is happening. but that's not what animates the cfr

Re: Alexei Navalny has died

#453

Post by hn_throwaway_99 »

kulikalov wrote: post #378

There are smart people who work for Russia, or worse - for russian gov. Without them it would not be possible. How can an individual have both the critical thinking and still have the gut to contribute to this? I grew up in rural russia. It's much much worse than what you see on the facade. My neighbour was a police man. His 15 years boy raped a kid from local orphanage and captured it on a video. No justice followed…

> I abandoned everything there and got out as soon as I could make any money. I wish every person capable of critical thinking just leave this dreadful place and let it descend to the middle ages.

I don't begrudge you for doing that, as I would have done (and basically did) the same. But that also highlights how a lot of these places get more fucked up over time.

The same thing is happening/has happened in the US. Basically, nearly all of the opportunity has moved from rural areas to urban and suburban ones. So basically anyone with the slightest modicum of ambition gets up and leaves. So all the people that are left are the people (a) without ambition or (b) are stuck there for other reasons (e.g. lots of early pregnancy). But the end result is those rural areas fall further behind, and many of the people that stay there become even more embittered about their lot. In the US the effect is even more pronounced because rural areas have outsized voting rights due to the way the electoral college and Senate work.

Re: Alexei Navalny has died

#454

Post by secondary_op »

MrDresden wrote: post #423
seanw444 wrote: post #411

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, what's he supposed to do? Head a frontal assault on the Kremlin? Dude's a political figure. His job is to talk.

The job he chose was to inspire people, and show them a way to protest from within the system (the strategic voting system he and his followers published).

[flagged]

Re: Alexei Navalny has died

#455

Post by pb7 »

KingOfCoders wrote: post #307
matsemann wrote: post #161

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In terms of % GDP, USA is quite far down the list.

And in % of military budget, it's near the end of the list.

It’s not the US’s fault Europe spends so little on defense. You reap what you sow. If you get rolled, that’s on you and your poor planning hoping Daddy USA is going to play world police.

We remember the decades of mocking for our choice of investing in defense. Enjoy your “free” healthcare while it lasts.

Re: Alexei Navalny has died

#456

Post by 1970-01-01 »

aerique wrote: post #385
telesilla wrote: post #35

The 2022 documentary 'Navalny' is important and explains how the anti-corruption campaigner got to that terrible place, being poisoned with a Novichok nerve agent and still deciding to go back to Russia. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Navalny_(film) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZF_HsKCWEHw (trailer)

I never understood why he went back to Russia.

I have held the exact same question. I don't say this lightly. His decision was stupid. He would've been much more effective as a critic with a Twitter account. You can't criticize the government when you're not free to do so.

Re: Alexei Navalny has died

#457

Post by lukasm »

joakleaf wrote: post #185
cglace wrote: post #144

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US has provided more funding to Ukraine than the world combined by a large margin, and the lesson you take away is that the US is somehow at fault. The one bill that was blocked by Congress would be more support than Europe as a whole has provided to Ukraine to date. While I agree that European countries should start to take their defense seriously I don't see how you fault US support of Ukraine.

Not sure about the US providing more funding (especially not by a large margin): This chart shows EU outspending the US. https://www.statista.com/chart/28489/ukrainian-military-huma... .

That chart is a bit pointless

USA can claim that one Bradley is 2mln, but what is a real value? Polish T-72 can be worth 1mln, but it's much more valuable than Bradley. UA army knows how to fix it and operate.

Re: Alexei Navalny has died

#459

Post by The_Colonel »

maratc wrote: post #302
The_Colonel wrote: post #279

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Transition of power is notoriously difficult in authoritarian systems and Putin is more of an exception rather than a normal occurence. Only Stalin had this level of control in Russia in the past 100 years. Do you remember who came after Stalin? Georgy Malenkov, but even I had to google his name, he didn't stay there for long. Even (the better known) Khruschev wasn't a strong ruler and got ousted in a couple of years…

I think a good proxy for russian situation would be China. They have changed the guy a couple of times in the last 30 years but the policy stayed the same. The only things that can bring a change are either a coup (not likely in Russia) or a black horse like Gorbachev. I also don’t think that reductio ad Stalinum is in place here. Putin got a full blessing from the retiring guy, and by that proxy from the elites as w…

China used to be like post-Stalin USSR - there's a leader, but also some intra-party pluralism.

Putin's Russia is nothing like that and Xi's China is leaving that pattern as well. Putin is an absolutist leader with no checks in place.

Re: Alexei Navalny has died

#460

Post by seanw444 »

Rest in peace.

It's wild to me how everyone has a (very energetic) opinion about a conflict nowhere near their home, helmed by people they don't know, fought by people they don't understand, over problems they don't understand.

I wish we could return to when not every conflict between nations was a considered a global emergency.

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