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Solar and battery to make up 81% of new US electric-generating capacity in 2024

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Re: Solar and battery to make up 81% of new US electric-generating capacity in 2024

#91

> Nuclear. Start-up of the fourth reactor (1.1 GW) at Georgia’s Vogtle nuclear power plant I checked the Wiki page: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vogtle_Electric_Generating_Pla... > Two additional units utilizing Westinghouse AP1000 reactors were under construction since 2009, with Unit 3 being completed in July 2023.[9][10][11] This last report blames the latest increase in costs on the contractor not completing wor…

> Those numbers are simply mind blowing. Why are these still built?

I'm guessing because there was no step in the process where it seemed like a better idea to stop construction and have spent whatever costs so far to get nothing of value, rather than accept the cost increase and end up with high availability, somewhat dispatchable generation.

There's not a lot of new projects in nuclear, because construction costs are high and subject to cost overruns as projects get delayed, and delays seem inevitable. That's why there's all the talk of modular nuclear and what not. If it was feasible to build these plants on time and on budget, the generation parameters are good --- doesn't use much fuel, tends to be available outside of scheduled maintenance, can modulate generation to follow demand, if the economics make sense (as-is, most of the plant expenses are fixed cost, so you may as well generate as much as you can to amortize the cost over more kWh)

Re: Solar and battery to make up 81% of new US electric-generating capacity in 2024

#92
post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think space is a concern in North America.

If space isn't a concern, then transmission is.

Also not really a problem in North America, nor is running more transmission lines as capacity and demand grow

Re: Solar and battery to make up 81% of new US electric-generating capacity in 2024

#95
post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It does. And no, it's not that significant. I'm not a nuclear fanboy (well, I wish I made sense since I like the idea of free energy, but renewables are just as good), but I think it's important to make accurate arguments.

An accurate argument would include the financial aspects of +/- 15% in generated output and the impact that has on grid capacity....

[deleted]

Re: Solar and battery to make up 81% of new US electric-generating capacity in 2024

#96
post #71

> Nuclear. Start-up of the fourth reactor (1.1 GW) at Georgia’s Vogtle nuclear power plant I checked the Wiki page: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vogtle_Electric_Generating_Pla... > Two additional units utilizing Westinghouse AP1000 reactors were under construction since 2009, with Unit 3 being completed in July 2023.[9][10][11] This last report blames the latest increase in costs on the contractor not completing wor…

> How much solar/wind/battery capacity can 34B USD buy!? According to How Big Things Get Done, at least 30B worth. Nuclear plants have some of the worst cost and time overruns for large projects, wind and solar some of the lowest (beaten only by roads). And his theory as to why this happens, is that wind, solar, and roads are self-similar. Building the first 10% directly informs you on how to build the next 10%. Ever…

This is why if nuclear is to have a future it would be via Small Modular Reactors. But even that appears to be too expensive.

Re: Solar and battery to make up 81% of new US electric-generating capacity in 2024

#97
post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It does. And no, it's not that significant. I'm not a nuclear fanboy (well, I wish I made sense since I like the idea of free energy, but renewables are just as good), but I think it's important to make accurate arguments.

An accurate argument would include the financial aspects of +/- 15% in generated output and the impact that has on grid capacity....

[deleted]

Re: Solar and battery to make up 81% of new US electric-generating capacity in 2024

#98
post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It does. And no, it's not that significant. I'm not a nuclear fanboy (well, I wish I made sense since I like the idea of free energy, but renewables are just as good), but I think it's important to make accurate arguments.

An accurate argument would include the financial aspects of +/- 15% in generated output and the impact that has on grid capacity....

With such a small difference, the burden of proof in this case is probably on the person arguing that it is a big difference, since you'd generally expect a roughly linear relationship between these.

In fact, I think I'd suspect that downtime is less relevant for nuclear, since I believe most of it will be schedulable, as opposed to renewables where downtime is random and based on conditions. Since it's schedulable, it could be done in the off season, or different plants could be planned to be out at difference periods.

Re: Solar and battery to make up 81% of new US electric-generating capacity in 2024

#99
post #71

> Nuclear. Start-up of the fourth reactor (1.1 GW) at Georgia’s Vogtle nuclear power plant I checked the Wiki page: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vogtle_Electric_Generating_Pla... > Two additional units utilizing Westinghouse AP1000 reactors were under construction since 2009, with Unit 3 being completed in July 2023.[9][10][11] This last report blames the latest increase in costs on the contractor not completing wor…

> How much solar/wind/battery capacity can 34B USD buy!? According to How Big Things Get Done, at least 30B worth. Nuclear plants have some of the worst cost and time overruns for large projects, wind and solar some of the lowest (beaten only by roads). And his theory as to why this happens, is that wind, solar, and roads are self-similar. Building the first 10% directly informs you on how to build the next 10%. Ever…

> And how many nuclear reactors does one worker build in their lifetime? 2? 4? That's not a lot of opportunity for process improvement.

France built 58 over 20 years, that's how you make it economical. India says they want to do one a year IIRC, which is probably good enough too.

Re: Solar and battery to make up 81% of new US electric-generating capacity in 2024

#100
post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

An accurate argument would include the financial aspects of +/- 15% in generated output and the impact that has on grid capacity....

With such a small difference, the burden of proof in this case is probably on the person arguing that it is a big difference, since you'd generally expect a roughly linear relationship between these. In fact, I think I'd suspect that downtime is less relevant for nuclear, since I believe most of it will be schedulable, as opposed to renewables where downtime is random and based on conditions. Since it's schedulable,…

You actually have no idea about electricity transmission. For long term problems, look no further than France. Short term, look up how electricity generation, transmission, markets and grid stability are linked. Wikipedia is a good start. Followed by studies about 100% renewable grids, those explain why baseload is much less of an issue than people think. And too much inflexible capacity, aka baseload, can actually be a problem itself.
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