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Solar and battery to make up 81% of new US electric-generating capacity in 2024

eia.gov

11–20 of 276 posts

Re: Solar and battery to make up 81% of new US electric-generating capacity in 2024

#11

I think the promising thing is that as we get more batteries on the grid, it will enable more renewables penetration as a percentage of the grid as a whole

Yes, absolutely, this compound effect is very important. Also interesting is that with every EV that gets added to the grid this effect improves even for the ones that can't deliver the power back later if it is economical to do so. They effectively serve as capacitors.

Re: Solar and battery to make up 81% of new US electric-generating capacity in 2024

#12

A neat trend. But still renewables are a small fraction of electrical generation capacity in the US. Dominated by gas, even the renewable slice ( A long, long way to go to complete renewable energy.

https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights... ("US Interconnection Queues Analysis 2023") https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=55960 ("Renewable generation surpassed coal and nuclear in the U.S. electric power sector in 2022") https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2022/11/02/u-s-to-deploy-550-gw-... ("U.S. to deploy 550 GW of new renewables by 2030") China deployed more solar last year than total U…

The second link is interesting since it covers actual generated energy. The others are kind of convoluted and need to be more clear on what the capacity measurement is since most renewables have significantly lower capacity factors than nuke, gas and coal.

Re: Solar and battery to make up 81% of new US electric-generating capacity in 2024

#13
"The Gemini solar facility in Nevada plans to begin operating in 2024. With a planned photovoltaic capacity of 690 megawatts (MW) and battery storage of 380 MW, it is expected to be the largest solar project in the United States when fully operational."

That's about 60% of the capacity of one unit at Vogtle nuclear power station, and Vogtle has four units.

Also, adding the solar capacity to the battery capacity to get a gigawatt makes no sense. Either you're charging the battery, which takes power from the solar array, or you're discharging the battery because it's dark and the solar array is idle.

Re: Solar and battery to make up 81% of new US electric-generating capacity in 2024

#15
post #13

"The Gemini solar facility in Nevada plans to begin operating in 2024. With a planned photovoltaic capacity of 690 megawatts (MW) and battery storage of 380 MW, it is expected to be the largest solar project in the United States when fully operational." That's about 60% of the capacity of one unit at Vogtle nuclear power station, and Vogtle has four units. Also, adding the solar capacity to the battery capacity to ge…

Gemini took 2 years and cost $1.3B. Vogtle cost $34B for 2 units and took 12 years for those 2 units.

Edit: Gemini took 4 years from project submission and 2 years from construction start. Vogtle took 19 years from project submission and 12 years from construction start.

Re: Solar and battery to make up 81% of new US electric-generating capacity in 2024

#16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights... ("US Interconnection Queues Analysis 2023") https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=55960 ("Renewable generation surpassed coal and nuclear in the U.S. electric power sector in 2022") https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2022/11/02/u-s-to-deploy-550-gw-... ("U.S. to deploy 550 GW of new renewables by 2030") China deployed more solar last year than total U…

The second link is interesting since it covers actual generated energy. The others are kind of convoluted and need to be more clear on what the capacity measurement is since most renewables have significantly lower capacity factors than nuke, gas and coal.

Which is why the battery uptake mentioned in this piece is of note. It firms renewables and steals grid service revenue from thermal generators. Pulls the uptake trajectory of renewables closer to vertical.

Only one coal fired generator in the US is currently economical to run vs new renewables. You don’t have to match capacity factor, it’s about economics; if renewables can run often enough cheap enough, it makes other generators uneconomical even if they have superior capacity factors. It’s why nuclear is on life support in the US.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-07/end-of-co... | https://archive.today/2owbd

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/jan/30/us-coal-more...

Re: Solar and battery to make up 81% of new US electric-generating capacity in 2024

#17
post #13

"The Gemini solar facility in Nevada plans to begin operating in 2024. With a planned photovoltaic capacity of 690 megawatts (MW) and battery storage of 380 MW, it is expected to be the largest solar project in the United States when fully operational." That's about 60% of the capacity of one unit at Vogtle nuclear power station, and Vogtle has four units. Also, adding the solar capacity to the battery capacity to ge…

I agree that summing the two values to a GW seems disingenuous, but there are more scenarios than the two you described.

For instance, it's possible to discharge the battery during the day, as well. If peak load is in the afternoon, the plant could be charging the battery during the morning and mid-day when specific demand on that plant is less than 690 MW, then discharge the battery to have (temporary) output of 1 GW.

Re: Solar and battery to make up 81% of new US electric-generating capacity in 2024

#18
post #13

"The Gemini solar facility in Nevada plans to begin operating in 2024. With a planned photovoltaic capacity of 690 megawatts (MW) and battery storage of 380 MW, it is expected to be the largest solar project in the United States when fully operational." That's about 60% of the capacity of one unit at Vogtle nuclear power station, and Vogtle has four units. Also, adding the solar capacity to the battery capacity to ge…

Gemini took 2 years and cost $1.3B. Vogtle cost $34B for 2 units and took 12 years for those 2 units. Edit: Gemini took 4 years from project submission and 2 years from construction start. Vogtle took 19 years from project submission and 12 years from construction start.

In large part because of constantly shifting requirements, obstructionism, and various forms of lawfare. The US has become terribly inefficient at large infrastructural projects, see the CA HSR project which is massively delayed and over budget. China does not have this problem, and has been rapidly expanding their nuclear capacity.

A standardized reactor design and regulatory certainty would enable the economies of scale and accrual of institutional knowledge to efficiently build new power plants. In response to the 1973 oil crisis, France massively expanded their fleet of nuclear reactors which were producing more than 70% of their electricity in about 15 years. If the political will is there, it can be done.

Re: Solar and battery to make up 81% of new US electric-generating capacity in 2024

#19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Gemini took 2 years and cost $1.3B. Vogtle cost $34B for 2 units and took 12 years for those 2 units. Edit: Gemini took 4 years from project submission and 2 years from construction start. Vogtle took 19 years from project submission and 12 years from construction start.

In large part because of constantly shifting requirements, obstructionism, and various forms of lawfare. The US has become terribly inefficient at large infrastructural projects, see the CA HSR project which is massively delayed and over budget. China does not have this problem, and has been rapidly expanding their nuclear capacity. A standardized reactor design and regulatory certainty would enable the economies of…

Gemini also qualifies as a large infrastructural project; it was delayed by concerns about the tortoises living in the area and challenges from local environmental groups.

China does similar projects in about 6 months. IOW, China does solar projects about 8X as fast as the US. OTOH it does nuclear projects in about 5 years, about 4X as fast as the US.

Re: Solar and battery to make up 81% of new US electric-generating capacity in 2024

#20
post #7

A neat trend. But still renewables are a small fraction of electrical generation capacity in the US. Dominated by gas, even the renewable slice ( A long, long way to go to complete renewable energy.

Say you don't understand exponential growth without saying you don't understand exponential growth.

There's no way solar can grow geometrically for long. It consumes real estate like there's no tomorrow. Land is limited; sunlight is limited. It has a hard, hard limit.

Unlike many other kinds of power generation, which are land-frugal and work 24 hours a day.

So, let's rethink who doesn't understand growth.

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