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Commercial property deals in the US are starting to pick up at deep discounts

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Re: Commercial property deals in the US are starting to pick up at deep discounts

#41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Funny, I feel the same way about developers. Urban planners tend to hate them too.

Developers built everything, existed long before planners ever did, and despite their greed and avarice, actually produce things that people want, and live in. Planners can claim none of this. They have complete control over the developers, but tend to make the outcomes worse both for the people buying homes. No matter the intention of the developer or the planner, the planner has made things worse and the developer…

> Developers built everything,

Well, no, this is just straight-up not true, that's just a description of recent american history.

Re: Commercial property deals in the US are starting to pick up at deep discounts

#42
post #5
post #3

[flagged]

Except people continue to move to cities outside the U.S. Even in the U.S. to the extent they aren’t it’s because rents continue to rise dramatically as cities are not keeping up with the demand for housing in their urban cores. Additionally, cities getting more crowded does not imply they should get more dangerous. In fact, during the pandemic crime increased in many cities such as NYC, SF, etc as the numbers of peo…

> Except people continue to move to cities outside the U.S.

People also continue to move to cities in the United States. Some of those cities have more people leave than come, but people are still moving there.

What would be more interesting is seeing how the share of the population living in large cities has changed over time in the USA and abroad. On balance is it growing, shrinking, or staying the same?

In my country, cities are still seeing growth, but since 2010 a larger and growing share of the population are now living smaller communities, especially those with fewer than 30,000 people. I don't know if it is fair to call that an exodus as the cities haven't seen any real population decline (overall population is growing), but there does seem to be a change in preference.

> At least in the U.S. suburbs are almost entirely subsidized by their core cities.

More often, the core city invests in the suburbs, namely to see a flow of workers from those suburbs come into the city, increasing productivity.

Those who call it a subsidy hypothesize that if the city put up a wall, the suburbs would become unsustainable and the people would then move into the city centre, after which nothing would change for the city except the resources would stay within the city limits. But that is not a foregone conclusion. More likely the people would stay put, giving rise to economic opportunity in the suburbs. The work they were doing in the city is going to go somewhere.

Of course, if that were to happen, both the city and the suburbs would be worse off. Which is why the city is more than happy to invest in the suburbs.

Re: Commercial property deals in the US are starting to pick up at deep discounts

#44
post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Some local councils around here want to make it a condition of approval that the first floor of mixed-use must remain commercial. Developers want it to be flexible because they can't predict future need. Constraints cost! Euclidean zoning is an unspeakably expensive economic blunder.

Urban Planning has to be one of the worst professions in the existence of humanity. We were all better off without urban planners, and everything they advocate for and enforce makes the world worse.

Who needs a canalization or public transport anyway?

Re: Commercial property deals in the US are starting to pick up at deep discounts

#45
post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Modern urban planners oppose most of the dystopian development seen in the US. What you see here is the stakeholders getting what they want. (Which might not be what they need) Only in this case, the stakeholders are other residents in the neighborhood...not prospective buyers.

No, modern urban planners basically want us all (except for them, of course) living in a modern Kowloon.

No they don't.

Re: Commercial property deals in the US are starting to pick up at deep discounts

#46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Developers built everything, existed long before planners ever did, and despite their greed and avarice, actually produce things that people want, and live in. Planners can claim none of this. They have complete control over the developers, but tend to make the outcomes worse both for the people buying homes. No matter the intention of the developer or the planner, the planner has made things worse and the developer…

> Developers built everything, Well, no, this is just straight-up not true, that's just a description of recent american history.

You must have some weird definition of "developer" then, something that's not compatible with what I'm talking about.

Who built all the brownstones in New York, for example? Today, they'd be called developers. What is your definition?

Re: Commercial property deals in the US are starting to pick up at deep discounts

#47
post #37
post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Or fixing the problem of bad regulation - you can always uplift living standards when money is cheap, right now there's a chance to operate more efficiently, rather than create more debt. One idea would be to convert spaces to something competing with airbnb, with the added value of being near offices.

Do you mean like capsule hotels in Tokyo?

How about just regular apartments in Tokyo/Seoul/HK? Much much smaller than USA apartments.... Also much much cheaper, at least than NYC/SF/LA.

Re: Commercial property deals in the US are starting to pick up at deep discounts

#48

Only speaking from my personal travel experiences, not any hard data, but: I feel like this issue is nearly non-existent in places with mixed use zoning. If the office values go down in a place with equal amounts of housing, they are repurposed as new apartments. The problem is when the office architecture isn’t interchangeable with apartment architecture, which usually happens because certain areas are zoned as offi…

There might be many issues with the gap in construction standards for offices and housings. A very dumb one: windows are required for houses, where offices can get away with huge open spaces holding a central hub of indoor areas. It's still possible to convert to houses, but that makes for ridiculously small liveable areas compared to the whole floor surface. Then plumbing, evacuation paths etc. can all be solved by…

> It's still possible to convert to houses, but that makes for ridiculously small liveable areas compared to the whole floor surface.

This is only a problem if it's prohibited by zoning. Otherwise it just gets reflected in the price.

Houses in the suburbs often contain a large amount of space with no windows, i.e. a basement the size of the entire first floor, and no one objects because it can be used for storage or a media room that doesn't want windows because of glare. In a multi-tenant building you also have the option to put shared facilities there, or rent the interior section of the floor to small shops while still converting the exterior to housing. But only if you don't have bad laws prohibiting such things.

Re: Commercial property deals in the US are starting to pick up at deep discounts

#49
post #10

Interesting, but predictable. The clamouring for "return to the office" was always a minority voice, and it seemed to be two major classes of people doing the clamouring - old fashioned managers who didn't believe staff could produce while at home, and those who made their living from forced commutes - a broad class of building owners and ancillary business owners such as meal providers. The ancillary businesses I ha…

I'm probably wrong, but I feel like in the style of city that urban advocates like "No Just Bikes" advocate for, there would be lots more "ancillary business owners such as meal providers" because the cities would be designed to be walkable and so instead of driving 3-4 miles to the nearest big box car lot you'd walk 1/2 a mile to your local "pedestrian and bicycle only shopping street" with a bunch of small shops, restaurants, and cafes.

Most of "car infested suburbia" is void of "ancillary business owners" because it's just miles and miles of tract homes

Re: Commercial property deals in the US are starting to pick up at deep discounts

#50
post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Except people continue to move to cities outside the U.S. Even in the U.S. to the extent they aren’t it’s because rents continue to rise dramatically as cities are not keeping up with the demand for housing in their urban cores. Additionally, cities getting more crowded does not imply they should get more dangerous. In fact, during the pandemic crime increased in many cities such as NYC, SF, etc as the numbers of peo…

Agreed. “Nobody lives in cities any more, they can’t afford the rent there”.

> “Nobody lives in cities any more, they can’t afford the rent there”.

This is literally what happened. The population increases but building higher density (i.e. cities) is prohibited or made prohibitively expensive so instead the suburbs get built and people live there instead because the city doesn't have housing for them.

Then the city becomes less attractive because the advantage it would otherwise have over the suburbs gets offset by the high rents -- it stops being consumer surplus and gets captured by landlords through artificial scarcity.

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