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Commercial property deals in the US are starting to pick up at deep discounts

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Re: Commercial property deals in the US are starting to pick up at deep discounts

#31

Post by dboreham »

makeitdouble wrote: post #27
keiferski wrote: post #15

Only speaking from my personal travel experiences, not any hard data, but: I feel like this issue is nearly non-existent in places with mixed use zoning. If the office values go down in a place with equal amounts of housing, they are repurposed as new apartments. The problem is when the office architecture isn’t interchangeable with apartment architecture, which usually happens because certain areas are zoned as offi…

There might be many issues with the gap in construction standards for offices and housings. A very dumb one: windows are required for houses, where offices can get away with huge open spaces holding a central hub of indoor areas. It's still possible to convert to houses, but that makes for ridiculously small liveable areas compared to the whole floor surface. Then plumbing, evacuation paths etc. can all be solved by…

Charlie Munger enters the room (with no windows)..

Re: Commercial property deals in the US are starting to pick up at deep discounts

#32

Post by Animats »

zbrozek wrote: post #23
keiferski wrote: post #15

Only speaking from my personal travel experiences, not any hard data, but: I feel like this issue is nearly non-existent in places with mixed use zoning. If the office values go down in a place with equal amounts of housing, they are repurposed as new apartments. The problem is when the office architecture isn’t interchangeable with apartment architecture, which usually happens because certain areas are zoned as offi…

Some local councils around here want to make it a condition of approval that the first floor of mixed-use must remain commercial. Developers want it to be flexible because they can't predict future need. Constraints cost! Euclidean zoning is an unspeakably expensive economic blunder.

Using the first floor of mixed-use buildings being commercial is a huge flop in the SF bay area. Drive down El Camino on the SF peninsula. Look at all those ground floor vacancies, low-end tenants, and oversized "leasing offices" to fill up space.

Re: Commercial property deals in the US are starting to pick up at deep discounts

#33

Post by dboreham »

Nursie wrote: post #10

Interesting, but predictable. The clamouring for "return to the office" was always a minority voice, and it seemed to be two major classes of people doing the clamouring - old fashioned managers who didn't believe staff could produce while at home, and those who made their living from forced commutes - a broad class of building owners and ancillary business owners such as meal providers. The ancillary businesses I ha…

1999 here.

Re: Commercial property deals in the US are starting to pick up at deep discounts

#34

Post by andrewflnr »

nerdponx wrote: post #12
andrewflnr wrote: post #11

Can any of these be turned into residences? I'm sure there's zoning and similar nonsense, but in the real world there's also problems like having enough water hookups.

How about temporary housing for immigrants and refugees?

Heck, I'm a bachelor, I'd take temporary-style housing, as long as we decide who's cleaning the bathrooms. But governments are pretty skittish about "reducing standards" for housing (or anything they could be so interpreted), so not only would I be even more pessimistic about such an arrangement being allowed, but there are pretty good reasons for that skittishness so I would be extremely careful about pushing against it.

Re: Commercial property deals in the US are starting to pick up at deep discounts

#35

Post by breather »

epistasis wrote: post #25
zbrozek wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Some local councils around here want to make it a condition of approval that the first floor of mixed-use must remain commercial. Developers want it to be flexible because they can't predict future need. Constraints cost! Euclidean zoning is an unspeakably expensive economic blunder.

Urban Planning has to be one of the worst professions in the existence of humanity. We were all better off without urban planners, and everything they advocate for and enforce makes the world worse.

Funny, I feel the same way about developers. Urban planners tend to hate them too.

Re: Commercial property deals in the US are starting to pick up at deep discounts

#36

Post by epistasis »

screye wrote: post #30
epistasis wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Urban Planning has to be one of the worst professions in the existence of humanity. We were all better off without urban planners, and everything they advocate for and enforce makes the world worse.

Modern urban planners oppose most of the dystopian development seen in the US. What you see here is the stakeholders getting what they want. (Which might not be what they need) Only in this case, the stakeholders are other residents in the neighborhood...not prospective buyers.

Despite what they might oppose, as part of their profession they must uphold the determinations of the stakeholders.

The purpose of a system is what it does. The supposed opposition of planners, a completely ineffectual and meaningless opposition that has zero effect on any policy outcome, does not change the fact that planning as a profession ends up being this means to an end.

Re: Commercial property deals in the US are starting to pick up at deep discounts

#37

Post by ugh123 »

harha wrote: post #28
makeitdouble wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There might be many issues with the gap in construction standards for offices and housings. A very dumb one: windows are required for houses, where offices can get away with huge open spaces holding a central hub of indoor areas. It's still possible to convert to houses, but that makes for ridiculously small liveable areas compared to the whole floor surface. Then plumbing, evacuation paths etc. can all be solved by…

Or fixing the problem of bad regulation - you can always uplift living standards when money is cheap, right now there's a chance to operate more efficiently, rather than create more debt. One idea would be to convert spaces to something competing with airbnb, with the added value of being near offices.

Do you mean like capsule hotels in Tokyo?

Re: Commercial property deals in the US are starting to pick up at deep discounts

#38

Post by CamperBob2 »

screye wrote: post #30
epistasis wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Urban Planning has to be one of the worst professions in the existence of humanity. We were all better off without urban planners, and everything they advocate for and enforce makes the world worse.

Modern urban planners oppose most of the dystopian development seen in the US. What you see here is the stakeholders getting what they want. (Which might not be what they need) Only in this case, the stakeholders are other residents in the neighborhood...not prospective buyers.

No, modern urban planners basically want us all (except for them, of course) living in a modern Kowloon.

Re: Commercial property deals in the US are starting to pick up at deep discounts

#39

Post by epistasis »

breather wrote: post #35
epistasis wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Urban Planning has to be one of the worst professions in the existence of humanity. We were all better off without urban planners, and everything they advocate for and enforce makes the world worse.

Funny, I feel the same way about developers. Urban planners tend to hate them too.

Developers built everything, existed long before planners ever did, and despite their greed and avarice, actually produce things that people want, and live in.

Planners can claim none of this. They have complete control over the developers, but tend to make the outcomes worse both for the people buying homes. No matter the intention of the developer or the planner, the planner has made things worse and the developer better.

Re: Commercial property deals in the US are starting to pick up at deep discounts

#40

Post by epistasis »

CamperBob2 wrote: post #38
screye wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Modern urban planners oppose most of the dystopian development seen in the US. What you see here is the stakeholders getting what they want. (Which might not be what they need) Only in this case, the stakeholders are other residents in the neighborhood...not prospective buyers.

No, modern urban planners basically want us all (except for them, of course) living in a modern Kowloon.

I actually want to live in a modern Kowloon, but the planners will not allow that, whatever their wishes, because they are the prison guards to a prison system. They must enforce what they are told, and at the same time wish to not take responsibility for their actions.
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