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The scarcity of the long term

kk.org

101–107 of 107 posts

Re: The scarcity of the long term

#101
post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Now I'm not exactly sure what the Vietnam war was supposed to achieve, and insofar as it fizzled out we need to define what, exactly, the aim was. I suspect it was pointless and fizzled out due to pointlessness eventually overwhelming the ability of the Americans to fight. However, if it was to combat communism/the USSR, which is my hazy understanding of the official justification, note communism has largely been exp…

> Those who argue that the United States’ opponents won the war cite the United States’ overall objectives and outcomes. The United States entered Vietnam with the principal purpose of preventing a communist takeover of the region. In that respect, it failed: the two Vietnams were united under a communist banner in July 1976. Neighbouring Laos and Cambodia similarly fell to communists. Furthermore, domestic unrest an…

If your argument is that the Vietnam War failed to achieve its goals, in context I don't see how sustaining the war for a millennium would have helped. The US arguably identified (correctly) that their approach wasn't working and stopped.

They then crushed communism. I don't see an argument that communism is a credible ideology these days. We all know what will happen to any country that makes a serious go of it - the citizens will starve and the economy will collapse. Then they can't spread communist ideology any more because they're broke and humiliated. The defeat was so resounding that the options became liberal capitalism, authoritarian capitalism or irrelevance.

If I hated someone enough that I wanted to bring war to their doorstep, and then decided that wasn't enough, I'd wish communism on them to. So insofar as the US was defeated in Vietnam, they won the war so much that the battle turned out not to need sustaining. I don't think this example shows any sort of survivorship bias, I think it is just a case where the project was achieved quickly.

Re: The scarcity of the long term

#104

"There’s an ethical dilemma around transmitting a mission into the far future. We don’t necessarily want to burden a future generation with obligations they had no choice in; we don’t want to rob them of their free will to choose their own destinations." This is why government deficits and long term debt are evil (regardless of one's political views). Spending money today that must be paid back by people not yet born…

Is it? How else would you fund any long term project that has benefits in the future?

I mean, think about it. If you have a project that has a $1000 benefit every year, why shouldn't the recipient of this benefit pay for it? The fact that the beneficiary is in the future doesn't fundamentally change anything. What matters is that the project is a net positive for the future. Do you think it would be justified to tear up all the roads after we are done with them so that we don't leave anyone with debt?

Re: The scarcity of the long term

#105
post #88

I have trouble squaring "people can't do long term planning" and the existence of megalithic structures like the pyramids in Egypt and the Americas or even the Great Wall of China. All of which took generations to build. Especially calling that lack of long-term planning/executing ability "human nature". I have to wonder if there's something about the current material conditions that orients us towards short term thi…

The Egyptians didn't have metallic money. They had rotting grains and their grain banks charged yearly storage fees if you deposit your "money" i.e. grains. The easiest way to avoid the storage costs is to invest in long lasting assets generating future benefits. Hence the pyramids.

In fact, liquidity preference theory is the theory of reluctance to commit resources in the present for a future cause because the future is uncertain. Only the most versatile assets have any chance of being useful in the future and the most versatile asset is money. Metal money is easy to hoard dragon style. Metal currencies therefore make people artificially short term oriented, simply because thinking about the future is irrelevant beyond a certain point, the money is perfectly versatile after all. Except, this is an illusion. You cannot hoard money in the long term without causing deflation and once trade is unprofitable it simply stops and business closes down. The value of the money becomes more volatile until there is enough scarcity in production that prices start rising again and you get boom and bust cycles.

In this way, money fools people into being short sighted and unwilling to commit to longer time frames.

Deflating currencies inherently discourage doing work in the future and actively encourage short term thinking. Being an early adopter and HODLing a cryptocurrency as soon as possible while it's value rises let's you get rich without working. As time passes, the quantity of money that an hour of labor buys keeps shrinking until it is utterly impossible. Earning money in your 20s becomes your top priority so as to maximize the total return from the deflation. Meanwhile working in your 50s and 60s is meaningless. Do you see the problem? The best time to earn money will always be in the past, but the past is already over! It's too late! I hope it is clear that an economic system that rewards the past and punishes the future is inherently counterproductive to any long term project and incompatible with the fact that the arrow of time points forwards, not backwards.

Re: The scarcity of the long term

#106
post #101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Those who argue that the United States’ opponents won the war cite the United States’ overall objectives and outcomes. The United States entered Vietnam with the principal purpose of preventing a communist takeover of the region. In that respect, it failed: the two Vietnams were united under a communist banner in July 1976. Neighbouring Laos and Cambodia similarly fell to communists. Furthermore, domestic unrest an…

If your argument is that the Vietnam War failed to achieve its goals, in context I don't see how sustaining the war for a millennium would have helped. The US arguably identified (correctly) that their approach wasn't working and stopped. They then crushed communism. I don't see an argument that communism is a credible ideology these days. We all know what will happen to any country that makes a serious go of it - th…

So people realizing that the project isn’t worth the cost is one of the mechanisms by which it can get canceled.

Re: The scarcity of the long term

#107
post #101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If your argument is that the Vietnam War failed to achieve its goals, in context I don't see how sustaining the war for a millennium would have helped. The US arguably identified (correctly) that their approach wasn't working and stopped. They then crushed communism. I don't see an argument that communism is a credible ideology these days. We all know what will happen to any country that makes a serious go of it - th…

So people realizing that the project isn’t worth the cost is one of the mechanisms by which it can get canceled.

I don't think anyone sees that as a problem. It isn't really a relevant observation.
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