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The Ukraine war is ultimately about Poland

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Re: The Ukraine war is ultimately about Poland

#51

Post by chalcolithic »

pc_edwin wrote: post #2

Interesting read. The underlying point here is what many of us have been saying since the beginning of the conflict. Putin is not some crazy drugged up megalomaniac. Morality aside, his moves are clearly rational and shows a high level of sophistication. A small window of opportunity opened up just after covid. Russia got a chance to make its last stand against the rapid decline of its sphere of influence and soverei…

>Many people don't seem to realise how existential this is for Russia.

I, being Russian, can not understand how is that an existential threat to a country that has the largest nuclear arsenal in the world, has insane amount of natural resources, and enjoys a virtually exclusive access to the best demographic reservoir in the world (except for Haredim, but it's not like they're planning to move anywhere, so yeah, the best one actually).

Re: The Ukraine war is ultimately about Poland

#52

Post by maximinus_thrax »

I was and still am very irritated by the Carlson's Putin interview. Not a fan of censorship in general but offering a platform to an autocrat to rewrite history and rationalize his imperial ambitions is a net loss for humanity in general. If only for the reactions and the firehose of horseshit which will come as either a reaction or a derivative work to the interview. This specific type of poppycock is very dangerous especially when a large swath of the world's population is not educated in the history of WW2 or the monstruous previous expansions of the Russian empire.

Case in point this article which assumes that Putin is a sophisticated rational actor and a relentless crusader with a historical goal. Let's just say if all world leaders start a wave of revisionism and 'historical claims' the world as we know it will end. If everyone in Europe will work for reconquering their territories at the peak of their history, we'd need 2-3 more Europes for everyone to be happy and nobody to die.

I wonder how much garbage this interview will end up creating in the world. And I do realize my comment is part of said garbage.

Re: The Ukraine war is ultimately about Poland

#53

Post by pc_edwin »

chalcolithic wrote: post #51
pc_edwin wrote: post #2

Interesting read. The underlying point here is what many of us have been saying since the beginning of the conflict. Putin is not some crazy drugged up megalomaniac. Morality aside, his moves are clearly rational and shows a high level of sophistication. A small window of opportunity opened up just after covid. Russia got a chance to make its last stand against the rapid decline of its sphere of influence and soverei…

>Many people don't seem to realise how existential this is for Russia. I, being Russian, can not understand how is that an existential threat to a country that has the largest nuclear arsenal in the world, has insane amount of natural resources, and enjoys a virtually exclusive access to the best demographic reservoir in the world (except for Haredim, but it's not like they're planning to move anywhere, so yeah, the…

Over the span of three decades your nation went from being a global superpower with immense economic, political and military power to a rapid declining shell of its former self.

Your economy is more comparable to an American state like Florida than a powerful country. You're nation is a political pariah with fleeting influence even among former ussr members. You capability to exert military power outside of your own borders have been effectively disabled having being surrounded by NATO and with a heavily depleted military.

All of this combined with the natural resources and land you mentioned is exactly why its open season on Russia to be carved up by actors with higher economic, military and political power.

If I was in your shoes, I would either give up and move or do anything and everything I can to improve the odds of the terrible hand your nation has been given..

Re: The Ukraine war is ultimately about Poland

#54

Post by pc_edwin »

pc_edwin wrote: post #53
chalcolithic wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Many people don't seem to realise how existential this is for Russia. I, being Russian, can not understand how is that an existential threat to a country that has the largest nuclear arsenal in the world, has insane amount of natural resources, and enjoys a virtually exclusive access to the best demographic reservoir in the world (except for Haredim, but it's not like they're planning to move anywhere, so yeah, the…

Over the span of three decades your nation went from being a global superpower with immense economic, political and military power to a rapid declining shell of its former self. Your economy is more comparable to an American state like Florida than a powerful country. You're nation is a political pariah with fleeting influence even among former ussr members. You capability to exert military power outside of your own…

Btw going to back to my op, this is exactly what Putin has been doing by working on hypersonic missiles. Taking Crimea. Trying to forcefully bring Ukraine back to Russia's sphere of influence.. etc

I'm not saying I condone his actions. I'm saying his actions are rational and strategic.

Putins choices were either leave a legacy of a slowly declining Russian federation until there isn't one or make massive gambits like this reverse Russias fortune.

The thing is, such gambits carries the risk of accelerating the current fate..

If I was ever put in a similar situation, my god I pray to have the balls and conviction to pull the trigger on such moves. It would be so much easier to just put up the appearances of normalcy by moving the chairs of the titanic while it sinks..

Re: The Ukraine war is ultimately about Poland

#55

Post by pc_edwin »

mr_toad wrote: post #6
pc_edwin wrote: post #2

Interesting read. The underlying point here is what many of us have been saying since the beginning of the conflict. Putin is not some crazy drugged up megalomaniac. Morality aside, his moves are clearly rational and shows a high level of sophistication. A small window of opportunity opened up just after covid. Russia got a chance to make its last stand against the rapid decline of its sphere of influence and soverei…

I don’t know about existential. Britain, France, Spain, Portugal, Turkey, Hungary all lost their empires without ceasing to exist.

The British empire peacefully transferred power to their descendents/cousins, this is a success story. Speaking english. Christian. Shared ancestry.

Besides, we are not talking about breaking up the empire. That already happened with the dissolution of the USSR. We are talking about the extinction of a nation.

It would be like if the UK was split into Scotland, a puppet of the EU. Wales, a quasi independant state with strong ties to Scotland. England, a former power center. Finally Ireland becomes whole.

Do you really think the brits will be cool with this, especially if lets say Russia/China was working behind the scenes to make it happen and the so called ally EU was all too happy to gain all this new power and influence...

Re: The Ukraine war is ultimately about Poland

#56

Post by khokhol »

pc_edwin wrote: post #54
pc_edwin wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Over the span of three decades your nation went from being a global superpower with immense economic, political and military power to a rapid declining shell of its former self. Your economy is more comparable to an American state like Florida than a powerful country. You're nation is a political pariah with fleeting influence even among former ussr members. You capability to exert military power outside of your own…

Btw going to back to my op, this is exactly what Putin has been doing by working on hypersonic missiles. Taking Crimea. Trying to forcefully bring Ukraine back to Russia's sphere of influence.. etc I'm not saying I condone his actions. I'm saying his actions are rational and strategic. Putins choices were either leave a legacy of a slowly declining Russian federation until there isn't one or make massive gambits like…

He has plenty of other choices, actually. Even now.

It's just that they involve some combination of letting go of his expansionist fantasies, relaxing his absolute grip on power, or watering-down his so-called legacy. So of course he won't pursue them.

Re: The Ukraine war is ultimately about Poland

#57

Post by ChatGTP »

tim333 wrote: post #50
tsimionescu wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> 1. A regime change would not be existential for Russia, it would be existential for Putin. Regime change means your enemies controlling who runs your country. It is an existential threat for the whole state, even if it would be better for the populace. When the USA suspected Russia of influencing their elections, no one said (and rightfully so) "that is only existential for Hillary, not for America, why should we c…

>Regime change means your enemies controlling who runs your country Not really. The push has been towards democracy where who runs the country would be decided by the Russian people.

I thought that comment was off too.

Re: The Ukraine war is ultimately about Poland

#58

Post by picadores »

injb wrote: post #14
ghiculescu wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you think their leaders at the time were fine with this?

That's a good question to think about actually. I don't think they handled it the way Russia is handling it now (assuming that this is in fact what's happening with Russia). Actually the big European powers gave up their empires fairly quietly. Yes they sometimes fought wars to keep them on a case by case basis, but I don't think any of them launched large scale campaigns of invasion as a response.

There were also significantly counter-culture movements against anti-imperialism similar to the russian anti-woke-culture war (after all it discredits imperialism) and thus dissolves the russian empire if looked at through this lense. They were just discredited after hitler dialed imperialism up to eleven.

Re: The Ukraine war is ultimately about Poland

#59

Post by chalcolithic »

pc_edwin wrote: post #53
chalcolithic wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Many people don't seem to realise how existential this is for Russia. I, being Russian, can not understand how is that an existential threat to a country that has the largest nuclear arsenal in the world, has insane amount of natural resources, and enjoys a virtually exclusive access to the best demographic reservoir in the world (except for Haredim, but it's not like they're planning to move anywhere, so yeah, the…

Over the span of three decades your nation went from being a global superpower with immense economic, political and military power to a rapid declining shell of its former self. Your economy is more comparable to an American state like Florida than a powerful country. You're nation is a political pariah with fleeting influence even among former ussr members. You capability to exert military power outside of your own…

>global superpower with immense economic, political and military power

I seen it from inside - you've bought into a Potemkin's village. When it was a "global superpower" (on paper) it was a much, much worse country by any measure.

>You're nation is a political pariah with fleeting influence even among former ussr members.

When the war has started that's exactly where I moved to. Turns out you're very wrong about it (didn't know it myself)

Re: The Ukraine war is ultimately about Poland

#60

Post by tsimionescu »

tim333 wrote: post #50
tsimionescu wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> 1. A regime change would not be existential for Russia, it would be existential for Putin. Regime change means your enemies controlling who runs your country. It is an existential threat for the whole state, even if it would be better for the populace. When the USA suspected Russia of influencing their elections, no one said (and rightfully so) "that is only existential for Hillary, not for America, why should we c…

>Regime change means your enemies controlling who runs your country Not really. The push has been towards democracy where who runs the country would be decided by the Russian people.

So if a more radical nationalist imperialist than Putin were to win open free elections, do you think NATO would be happy?

Not to mention, by all accounts, Putin would probably win fully free elections even today. The opponents he's suppressing or killing are not extremely popular today, they are people who he fears might become popular if left unchecked.

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