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The scarcity of the long term

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Re: The scarcity of the long term

#51

Post by denton-scratch »

KineticLensman wrote: post #47
denton-scratch wrote: post #15

> The only real scarcity would be of a long attention span. I get the author's drift, and broadly agree. But I don't think it's really a long attention span that would get in the way of (e.g.) a Mars colony, or interstellar travel; it's that people's views change from one generation to the next. My kids have been imbued with some of my attitudes, sure; but I've not had much of a hand in the raising of my grandchildre…

> the Roman Empire lasted about 200 years. Chinese imperial rule lasted much longer, maybe 1,500 years? The Roman empire lasted considerably longer than 200 years - perhaps 500 years in its best understood form going from Octavian becoming emperor in ~30BCE to the fall of the Western Roman Empire in approx 470CE. The eastern end of the empire lasted in various forms for another 1000 years (!) until the fall of Consta…

Thanks for the correction.

The upshot, however, is that few empires last as long as 500 years, and only a couple lasted as long as 1,500 years. And those empires change a lot over the course of their existence; they weren't effective vehicles for a collective effort at, say, colonising Mars.

Re: The scarcity of the long term

#52

Post by DiggyJohnson »

darepublic wrote: post #13

> I am asking myself what would I need to hear and get from a past generation to convince me to complete a project they began? For me a language, culture, sexual arousal.

For many others, especially with regards to cathedrals and religious institutions more generally: religiosity / God.

Re: The scarcity of the long term

#53

Post by alanbernstein »

denton-scratch wrote: post #15

> The only real scarcity would be of a long attention span. I get the author's drift, and broadly agree. But I don't think it's really a long attention span that would get in the way of (e.g.) a Mars colony, or interstellar travel; it's that people's views change from one generation to the next. My kids have been imbued with some of my attitudes, sure; but I've not had much of a hand in the raising of my grandchildre…

> people's views change from one generation to the next

Or in other words, our society itself currently has a short attention span.

Re: The scarcity of the long term

#54

Post by psychoslave »

AndrewKemendo wrote: post #22
denton-scratch wrote: post #15

> The only real scarcity would be of a long attention span. I get the author's drift, and broadly agree. But I don't think it's really a long attention span that would get in the way of (e.g.) a Mars colony, or interstellar travel; it's that people's views change from one generation to the next. My kids have been imbued with some of my attitudes, sure; but I've not had much of a hand in the raising of my grandchildre…

This nails it I think The basic unit of humanity, the human, does not have consistent long term desires or goals. In fact within the span of a lifetime the same individual is expected to have completely divergent goals and conception of reality when they are 20 versus 50 versus 80. In effect this means that a consistent, coherent goal state for human action is not possible to define that would satisfy the self-report…

I don’t know, look at how Knuth is still at work on TAOCP. Sure not everyone is Knuth (I am definitely not at least).

Having a life long goal require a conjunction of passion for a topic that requires that much attention span and relevant available resources to explore it. I dare to say that having enough resources at hand including not being interrupted too often with other hassles and hazards from life is the biggest source of scarcity.

Re: The scarcity of the long term

#55

Post by denton-scratch »

crabbone wrote: post #39
denton-scratch wrote: post #15

> The only real scarcity would be of a long attention span. I get the author's drift, and broadly agree. But I don't think it's really a long attention span that would get in the way of (e.g.) a Mars colony, or interstellar travel; it's that people's views change from one generation to the next. My kids have been imbued with some of my attitudes, sure; but I've not had much of a hand in the raising of my grandchildre…

One of the unexpected effects of learning Hebrew for me, was something I didn't realize at first. Only almost thirty years since I could confidently use the language I accidentally watched a video where someone was researching the phonetics of the language (it's more or less generally agreed that nobody really knows how ancient Hebrew sounded). So, the researcher asked people from different communities (eg. Yemenite…

> Except for the razor my grandfather brought from Germany in 1945

Hah - I also have an old razor. I inherited it from my Dad. He seems to have bought it in about 1935, from a cutler in Cambridge, where he went to University. It was made in Sheffield, but is engraved with the name of that Cambridge shop. He would have been about 20 when he bought it - perhaps his first razor.

I've tried to sharpen and use it; but it was pretty rough. I find that modern razors from the likes of Dovo are much better.

> I've never really met my grandfather

My paternal grandfather died before I was born. My father says he was sitting in his chair; then he just coughed and died. I hope I am lucky enough to die like that.

I knew my maternal grandfather quite well; I used to visit him when I was 13 - 15, most Sunday afternoons. He was a pacifist, an atheist, and a hero: he was head of education in Hong Kong, when the Japanese took over. The story is that he stole a truck, and drove around the rich neighbourhoods collecting mattresses, medicines and - whisky. He liked a wee dram. He drove the truck to the concentration camp, blagged his way past the guards, and delivered the truck to the camp medical centre (minus the whisky, I imagine).

I'm also an atheist, and spent most of my life as a pacifist. I'm no hero, though.

Re: The scarcity of the long term

#56

Post by blurrypepe »

gmuslera wrote: post #37

One problem with long term projects is advancement on technology that would had made a faster, sturdier, cleaner or whatever the original project if it started from zero using it. We send a mission to Alpha centauri that would take, lets say, 100 years to get there with the current propulsion technologies, and in 30 years we discover a new one that would take 20 years to get there. Or the same for big buildings (I do…

I agree but just wanted to point out that The Line probably will never be built!

Re: The scarcity of the long term

#57

Post by NeoTar »

denton-scratch wrote: post #49
lloeki wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So essentially the problem is one of being able to foster a meme+ that outlives the scale of an individual's life. + the original meaning, not the internets one, which is only an extremely short-lived subset.

> to foster a meme+ So, I guess, pyramid-building; that's a collective project spanning a few centuries. I struggle to think of any collective project that spans centuries, that isn't fundamentally a religious enterprise.

> I struggle to think of any collective project that spans centuries, that isn't fundamentally a religious enterprise.

Certain parts of mathematics and science may qualify.

Yes they have practical outcomes (as do certain religious projects - building a cathedral will employ craftsmen), but isn't the pursuit of 'pure' mathematics a collective project which serves no purpose apart from intellectual satisfaction.

Re: The scarcity of the long term

#58

Post by KineticLensman »

denton-scratch wrote: post #51
KineticLensman wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> the Roman Empire lasted about 200 years. Chinese imperial rule lasted much longer, maybe 1,500 years? The Roman empire lasted considerably longer than 200 years - perhaps 500 years in its best understood form going from Octavian becoming emperor in ~30BCE to the fall of the Western Roman Empire in approx 470CE. The eastern end of the empire lasted in various forms for another 1000 years (!) until the fall of Consta…

Thanks for the correction. The upshot, however, is that few empires last as long as 500 years, and only a couple lasted as long as 1,500 years. And those empires change a lot over the course of their existence; they weren't effective vehicles for a collective effort at, say, colonising Mars.

> And those empires change a lot over the course of their existence; they weren't effective vehicles for a collective effort at, say, colonising Mars

Completely agree!

Re: The scarcity of the long term

#59

Post by lloeki »

NeoTar wrote: post #57
denton-scratch wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> to foster a meme+ So, I guess, pyramid-building; that's a collective project spanning a few centuries. I struggle to think of any collective project that spans centuries, that isn't fundamentally a religious enterprise.

> I struggle to think of any collective project that spans centuries, that isn't fundamentally a religious enterprise. Certain parts of mathematics and science may qualify. Yes they have practical outcomes (as do certain religious projects - building a cathedral will employ craftsmen), but isn't the pursuit of 'pure' mathematics a collective project which serves no purpose apart from intellectual satisfaction.

Maths has a constant "next step" which makes it very iterative though whereas a pyramid or a cathedral is only complete or not-complete, and it's not-complete over these decades/centuries.

> religious

Probably the most enduring meme.

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