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The Ukraine war is ultimately about Poland

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Re: The Ukraine war is ultimately about Poland

#21

Post by Affric »

injb wrote: post #14
ghiculescu wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you think their leaders at the time were fine with this?

That's a good question to think about actually. I don't think they handled it the way Russia is handling it now (assuming that this is in fact what's happening with Russia). Actually the big European powers gave up their empires fairly quietly. Yes they sometimes fought wars to keep them on a case by case basis, but I don't think any of them launched large scale campaigns of invasion as a response.

I am sorry but Ireland, Kenya, the Malayan emergency, the Indian mutiny, the Vietnam war, Portugal’s wars, Algeria, Suez, Spain from 1820s+…

I would not call any of that quiet. And Suez was definitely an invasion.

Hell, US hegemony was challenged by Al-Qaeda and they invaded Iraq.

Russia is different in that rather than being a seaborne empire they were a land based empire. The Austro-Hungarians invaded Serbia when their Balkan ambitions were looking like being thwarted.

Re: The Ukraine war is ultimately about Poland

#22

Post by alephnan »

> But we rarely think about ethnic imperialism — an empire trying to gobble up neighboring polities because of linguistic and cultural similarity, so that it can be the ruler of a specific cultural sphere. (In fact, the British conquest of Ireland, the Japanese conquest of Korea and China)

Uh no. The Yamato people wanted these countries for land and resources. Japan was never interested in extending their culture, nor proactively assimilating other ethnic groups into their own, with the exception of maybe the Ryukyuan on Okinawa. If this were the case, you’d seen it in Taiwan. They didn’t want to assimilate the Koreans who already in their country for generations, either. I can only presume author is a white person, because the cultural affinity of Japan bifurcated from China a millennial ago. Speaking of which, the other motivation was to prevent and buffer Japan from being controlled and humiliated by a white colonizers, as was the case with China.

Re: The Ukraine war is ultimately about Poland

#23

Post by mianos »

I think this is all a bit of an irrelevant academic discussion. If Russia were to cross into Poland, it would essentially pit the world against Russia.

If you're on board with the article and believe Putin is on a historically motivated crusade of sorts, and of sound mind, it's difficult to imagine he'd initiate an invasion he has no chance of winning.

The fact that Poland can't muster an armed force as sizeable as Russia's is entirely beside the point in this scenario, especially considering he would be pitting his now somewhat depleted military resources against all of NATO, and potentially even more.

Re: The Ukraine war is ultimately about Poland

#25

Post by Affric »

yks wrote: post #19
achikin wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Putin tried to do that at the beginning of his presidency. He was talking a lot about joining NATO and even EU, but that didn’t go anywhere. Russia is much more valuable to the EU as a fossil colony.

The largest, most resource-rich, nuclear-protected country in the world with the decent education cannot advance without raping its neighbors, because checks notes neighbors wanted to trade fossils with it?

Russia has demographic problems. They still have fewer citizens than in 1989.

Russia’s economy was thoroughly fucked by the collapse of the USSR.

Putin’s campaigns in Ukraine have been barbaric and I don’t pretend to understand the logic but Russia’s natural resources cannot make up for their problems.

Re: The Ukraine war is ultimately about Poland

#26

Post by mbfg »

mianos wrote: post #23

I think this is all a bit of an irrelevant academic discussion. If Russia were to cross into Poland, it would essentially pit the world against Russia. If you're on board with the article and believe Putin is on a historically motivated crusade of sorts, and of sound mind, it's difficult to imagine he'd initiate an invasion he has no chance of winning. The fact that Poland can't muster an armed force as sizeable as R…

it the war moves to poland, it's likely nuclear.

Re: The Ukraine war is ultimately about Poland

#27

Post by mistrial9 »

doubloon wrote: post #5
pc_edwin wrote: post #2

Interesting read. The underlying point here is what many of us have been saying since the beginning of the conflict. Putin is not some crazy drugged up megalomaniac. Morality aside, his moves are clearly rational and shows a high level of sophistication. A small window of opportunity opened up just after covid. Russia got a chance to make its last stand against the rapid decline of its sphere of influence and soverei…

the reason their economy, birth rates, and military go into the toilet is because of their shitty rulers stole the money and spent it on whores and cocaine instead of education and infrastructure, not because they lost territory or sovereignty or any of this shit. if putin was rational and sophisticated his country would not be flushing itself down the toilet. russia used to be a mathematical, scientific, technologic…

> now they have redneck oil idiots running the place and brainwashing the uneducated rural

that sounds like Texas politics to me

Re: The Ukraine war is ultimately about Poland

#28

Post by yks »

Affric wrote: post #25
yks wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The largest, most resource-rich, nuclear-protected country in the world with the decent education cannot advance without raping its neighbors, because checks notes neighbors wanted to trade fossils with it?

Russia has demographic problems. They still have fewer citizens than in 1989. Russia’s economy was thoroughly fucked by the collapse of the USSR. Putin’s campaigns in Ukraine have been barbaric and I don’t pretend to understand the logic but Russia’s natural resources cannot make up for their problems.

Ultimately neither will imperial expansion. They are not solving their problems, they just loot weaker neighbors and blame everyone but themselves. In reality Russia got maybe the best hand on this planet, so they definitely as a society could choose a path to prosperity instead of replaying medieval conquests, squandering whatever demographics they have left. Stolen Ukrainian kids are also a limited resource after all, when they run out, what will Russians do?

Re: The Ukraine war is ultimately about Poland

#29

Post by Affric »

yks wrote: post #28
Affric wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Russia has demographic problems. They still have fewer citizens than in 1989. Russia’s economy was thoroughly fucked by the collapse of the USSR. Putin’s campaigns in Ukraine have been barbaric and I don’t pretend to understand the logic but Russia’s natural resources cannot make up for their problems.

Ultimately neither will imperial expansion. They are not solving their problems, they just loot weaker neighbors and blame everyone but themselves. In reality Russia got maybe the best hand on this planet, so they definitely as a society could choose a path to prosperity instead of replaying medieval conquests, squandering whatever demographics they have left. Stolen Ukrainian kids are also a limited resource after a…

Right, but like the article says, in Poland westernisation was set as a return to Europe. “Europe” has for centuries defined itself against Russia. The last time Russia looked to the west, rather than inwards, they got shock therapy.

Beyond that Russia’s hand is so good because of the very imperialism we are all decrying.

You’re arguing that the Russian body politic should shrug off its distinct characteristics and submit to the west.

Hard to see any of that happening with anything short of revolution.

Re: The Ukraine war is ultimately about Poland

#30

Post by SkeuomorphicBee »

pc_edwin wrote: post #2

Interesting read. The underlying point here is what many of us have been saying since the beginning of the conflict. Putin is not some crazy drugged up megalomaniac. Morality aside, his moves are clearly rational and shows a high level of sophistication. A small window of opportunity opened up just after covid. Russia got a chance to make its last stand against the rapid decline of its sphere of influence and soverei…

> Putin is not some crazy drugged up megalomaniac. Morality aside, his moves are clearly rational and shows a high level of sophistication.

Nothing rational or sophisticated about trying to build a 19th century style land empire in the 21st century. The mindless quest for a sphere of influence is madness in our modern word, something that can only come from the mind of a crazy megalomaniac who thinks of sovereignty not in regards to modern borders, but in regards to a historic empire of his dreams. He believes Ukraine (and Belorussia, and Georgia, ...) are part of Russia, so anytime one of those stops playing the part (stop being a puppet/satellite) he invades (Georgia 2008, Ukraine 2014 and 2022).

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