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Has LA cracked the code for building affordable housing?

benjaminschneider.substack.com

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Re: Has LA cracked the code for building affordable housing?

#91
post #23

[flagged]

I agree in part with you, particularly the weird utopian beliefs people have about transit-enabled housing.

I lived in Tokyo which is full of high density and the world's best public transit without the drug abuse issues in the West. Safe, omnipresent public transit like this is absolutely necessary for high density — and it's not ideal at all.

Getting from point A to B for work is miserable. You walk to the station, wait for your train, then switch as necessary. Switching trains can be awful — Yotsuya to the Marunouchi line was particularly horrible. Maybe you are a winner with a job at Tokyo station; but I thought the point was empowering all people, not just the top tier of society?

Of course, you can choose to align yourself with the train system. Leaving aside your subsequent disadvantage when changing jobs, you are then competing with everyone for a decent place to live. Suddenly you need to fight for denser and denser (aka smaller and smaller) housing again and people eventually get priced out to a new town two hours out of Tokyo.

And that's in the city; Try visiting your family in Saitama if you live in the wrong part of Tokyo. Your selfish human desire to connect with family turns a 25-30 minute car ride into a 1.5 hour painful hassle, and one that is not cheap either. Try getting your friends together for a board game — transit is one reason why such home parties are so rare.

For the Bike utopians, I used to bike from Koenji to Ikebukuro at Sunshine 60 and would routinely beat the train. I had to stop because, even with the ideal small back roads, it was dangerous — and someone stole my bike. This is an inevitable part of density, you aren't going to have bigger roads and you get more rolls of the dice to encounter dishonest people.

Finally, the more density, the less you can do. Humans have their own social gravity and it shows. You will be poorer overall as going to the spice grocery is going to take up all your activity time (since so much will vanish in transit). Maybe it's ok if you wish to conform to everyone else's choice of food and activity but that's literally the opposite of diversity.

This is with the very best public transit system in the safest city in the world (for men, let's not talk sexual harassment of women) — any attempt in North America will be much, much worse for reasons that are obvious.

I still believe cities should enable higher density as homelessness is worse than everything I outlined above; but it won't be pleasant and many people will be forced into a cramped housing situation that they will never be able to get out of.

In that context, finding ways to bring jobs to smaller cities makes a lot of sense. I am sorry you got downvoted op, but a lot of people seem to be attracted to high density without appreciating realistic drawbacks.

(And to be honest, I still like the Tokyo train system, I'm just not going to mindlessly worship it)

Re: Has LA cracked the code for building affordable housing?

#92
post #23

[flagged]

> higher housing costs The basic reason for skyrocketing housing costs in major California cities is that there aren't enough housing units for the number of people living there. The solution to that is... ... ... denser housing.

> The solution to that is... ... ... denser housing.

No large city in the US managed to decrease prices by building more housing (dense or not) within the last 25 years.

There are several fundamental reasons why density increases won't work.

Re: Has LA cracked the code for building affordable housing?

#93
post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is plenty of history showing the long term effects and outcome of dense housing run by the Government. Dense housing ran by private companies will always be a race to capture the most amount of profit. While Government ran dense housing will be affected by an ever decreasing budget and ever increasing cost. OP is right. We need to invest in “fly over” states. There is an abundance of land and opportunity to ach…

Neither the article nor the comment you are referring to were talking about government housing. And you’re entitled to not want to live in a dense urban environment, but you might need to open your mind to the idea that not everyone feels the way you do.

> And you’re entitled to not want to live in a dense urban environment, but you might need to open your mind to the idea that not everyone feels the way you do.

You're entitled to move away from a toxic river that catches fire. But you might need to open your mind to the idea that not everyone feels the way you do. Perhaps some people like to work at the factory that produces the toxic slime.

Urban density is pollution. Its effects are not limited to cities.

By making it easier for companies to open offices in dense urban cores, it ensures that smaller cities are starved of jobs and die. So people are forced to move to ever-densifying areas, driving up the price. This in turn makes it even easier for companies to hire people living near dense urban cores.

Rinse, wash, repeat.

Re: Has LA cracked the code for building affordable housing?

#94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's not what I read from the article. Instead it seemed to be fairly arbitrary government regulations such as required shrubbery and facade articulation that make the cost of building prohibitively expensive. Now, you may be saying it's NIMBY for the LA government to require unnecessary (or mildly necessary) stuff to keep the neighborhoods beautiful, but it's I'd guess it's probably more "just because I can means…

> required shrubbery and facade articulation Isn't that appeasing to the NIMBYs who don't want their property values to drop?

And it's also appealing to NIMBYs that want to stop all new development after they have their own home.

Every extra hoop to jump through gives extra negotiation points or veto points. Anything that can provide a point of argumentation that allows further delay is a chance to stop a project. Every month of delay is a chance for construction costs to rise, for financing preapprovals to run out, for the builder to get tired of the process and pursue greener pastures.

Re: Has LA cracked the code for building affordable housing?

#95
post #23

[flagged]

gestures broadly at large European cities that have cheaper rents than US cities

There’s more to it than housing density (see below). For instance, there are also differences in public transport to spread the area of viable housing. Anecdotally, high rent cities such as New York or London tend to not do a great job at providing reasonably priced and efficient transport to nearby commuter towns or suburban areas compared to many in central Europe, for instance.

On densities, cities like New York, San Francisco, and Seattle (high rents) are comparable or higher in density than larger European cities with the exception of Paris (and I may have missed another). London, Berlin, or Madrid are noticeably lower than New York or possibly the other two US cities as well.

(Naturally, the city boundaries of somewhere like London include many less-urban areas so this doesn’t quite capture exactly what either of us presumably mean, but it’s loosely demonstrative.)

Re: Has LA cracked the code for building affordable housing?

#96
post #36
post #23

[flagged]

How does building dense housing lead to higher housing costs? That seems unintuitive to me.

Dense housing creates highly walk-able cities with extremely good public transportation. Furthermore, high density foot traffic creates improved economies of scale for businesses. Economies of scale might shift society to one where you don't need to cook at home because good inexpensive food is everywhere. Businesses themselves benefit from high concentrations of skilled workers in more condensed areas. The total cost of commuting for society diminishes. Public works also benefit because more people can benefit from every dollar spent. Dense living lets people take advantage of the economies of scale of the businesses and infrastructure around them.

The end result of dense housing is a highly desirable place to live, in other words, increased demand for housing, locally.

This can be seen in housing prices in NYC, Taipei, Seoul, Tokyo, Hong Kong, Singapore, etc.

So it is not dense housing that makes housing costs drop, it is dense housing built in excess of demand... But incumbent property owners will resist that tooth and nail because if production of housing can satisfy demand, their capital investments (and very often sole vehicle of retirement income) will decrease in value. When a person's wealth decreases, they desire political change. So housing policy that results in lower housing costs is extremely unpopular among those with power (education, money, time, etc.).

Re: Has LA cracked the code for building affordable housing?

#97
post #36
post #23

[flagged]

How does building dense housing lead to higher housing costs? That seems unintuitive to me.

> How does building dense housing lead to higher housing costs? That seems unintuitive to me.

By creating a denser unit, you're forcing (via economic forces) more people to move closer to denser areas. This in turn makes these areas more attractive for employers, making it easier to do business. This in turn makes dense areas more attractive for employees, so they are willing to pay more to live closer to dense areas.

Result: density increases, and prices rise along with it.

And an additional toxic component: the population is basically not growing anymore. It's nearly a zero-sum game now, so each new dense unit means one more dilapidated house in Kansas as its occupants had to move to find a job.

Re: Has LA cracked the code for building affordable housing?

#98
post #17

I'll save you a click: no. Here's the thing: housing in dense cities will NEVER be affordable. Never. What happened recently (and is happening in other cities like Seattle) is companies pivoting from building "luxury" crappy condos to sweet state-subsdizied housing. These kinds of projects are great for them, they don't need to care about the market demand.

Where do these nonsense beliefs come from? There's no data to support them. No examples. Nothing?

It's so odd to see such undying certainty without any evidence, and without any clear path to political indoctrination. Or perhaps this sort of political indoctrination was present before mt times? Its just mystifying to see comments like this stated as if people would agree of believe these views by sheer force of will.

Re: Has LA cracked the code for building affordable housing?

#99
post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Devil's advocate: induced demand. Density increases interactions which are the economic point of cities, and why cities are wealthier than suburbs/rural areas (when suburbs/rural areas aren't juiced by subsidies and loans). Wealthier cities attract migration, migration increases demand for units. That said, my personal belief is that prices are completely decoupled from demand and are more reflective of a desperation…

(Keeping in mind that you are playing devils advocate, and that none of this is directed at you personally) Induced demand for highways: sure. Well proven. Happens every single time. Induced demand for housing? Gonna need to see some hard evidence on the time scales, etc. Housing is very different from highways. People can go from using zero freeway miles to 50 freeway miles a day, if there's slightly cheaper housing…

> Induced demand for housing? Gonna need to see some hard evidence on the time scales, etc.

Seattle: grew the number of units by 25% within the last 12 years. SF: only 5% within that timeframe.

Their price growth curve is nearly identical.

> Housing scales far far far better than freeways. It's easy to double, triple, quintuple, and even 10x or more the density from single detached units.

LOL, no. You have no idea how much city infrastructure costs.

> Freeways don't scale like that.

One mile of subway in Manhattan now costs more than 1000 miles of a 6-lane freeway.

Re: Has LA cracked the code for building affordable housing?

#100
post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tokyo manages to remain affordable somehow. “Two full-time workers earning Tokyo’s minimum wage can comfortably afford the average rent for a two-bedroom apartment in six of the city’s 23 wards.” https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/11/opinion/editorials/tokyo-...

> Tokyo manages to remain affordable somehow. Bullshit. Tokyo's average unit costs $1m now. They managed to create a bona-fide property bubble in the middle of declining population: https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/surging-tokyo-property-... The NYT article is (of course) a one-sided social engineering story, full of half-truths and outright lies.

You do realize that people can read the articles you link to, right? For example:

> The flood of investment drove the average price for a new condominium in central Tokyo up 60% to a record 129.6 million yen ($865,000) in the first half of this year, according to the Real Estate Economic Institute.

Prices surged. Before the surge, professionals had this dream of owning. So your own article refutes your nonsensical statement that Dems housing can "never" be affordable.

Can you conceive of a cyclical nature to markets that affects pricing? Or is it that now that they went from affordable to less affordable, it means that purchasing will forever be changed now?

Or you assertion of "declining population"? Maybe on the national level, but it's not true of Tokyo!

https://www.statista.com/statistics/608585/japan-tokyo-popul...

And what is the difference in cost between renting and owning? Perhaps renting is affordable, but ownership is extremely expensive becuase of irrational speculation or temporary macro factors?

TL;DR your own article refutes your central hypothesis that housing can not be affordable in dense cities.

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