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As much as you ever wanted to know about 155M artillery shell production

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Re: As much as you ever wanted to know about 155M artillery shell production

#301
post #276

None of this explains HOW is it that the Russians are able to produce artillery shells at 7 times the rate of the entire Western world, while being sanctioned? If they can do it, why can't we? [1] https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-ammunition-manufactur...

> while being sanctioned

Sorry? When did Russia became dependent on the Western steel or explosives?

Re: As much as you ever wanted to know about 155M artillery shell production

#302

I really really enjoyed the piece[0], but boy, you think this is bad, wait until we're exchanging missiles with a peer military. Hundreds, maybe even thousands, of missiles[1] in the air at the same time, in a kaleidoscopic dazzle of altitudes, velocities, sensor profiles. Every combat simulation seems to turn into what you might call a "magazine fight" - i.e., who runs out of bullets first. We'll probably burn throu…

I'm delighted you enjoyed the piece so much. Honestly, I expected to get 20 views on the whole thing, as I felt like a crazy person researching this area for like 6 months. That collapsed in the belief I probably can't do much to help, at which point I just wanted to get it out there for anyone else in the wilderness.

I did speak to a few missile manufacturers facing the same thing, including DOD's lack of urgency, which I interpret as Congress' lack of urgency. In the nightmare situation of a hot war in the Pacific, that attitude would change on a dime, and I still think Operation Warp Speed is the primary example of how we would respond to direct threats. Similar to COVID, I would much rather deter such a situation with bold action now than wait until we're certain we'll need them, which will cost many more lives.

And I've heard dubious things on Replicator too, but thankfully, smart defense private money is going to truly disruptive dual-use tech that is autonomous, resilient, and ultimately attritable. That combination is the best answer for democratic countries that care about soldiers' lives vs. authoritarians sending human waves.

Re: As much as you ever wanted to know about 155M artillery shell production

#304

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To add, the keys, targeting coordinates, orders, and control of the weapons was with the Russians in the Kremlin. Kazakhstan and Turkey also housed nuclear weapons. No one argues they were a nuclear power stripped of their defense.

Missiles were built by Ukraine.

Rocket engines, which were dual use with peacetime space exploration, I might add. They did not build warheads.

Re: As much as you ever wanted to know about 155M artillery shell production

#305

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And shelling Donetsk City is somehow different?

I am also against the Ukraine war and believe a peaceful settlement is possible. NATO (the US) is using Ukraine to fight Russia to the last Ukrainian, though having to fight two wars at once is causing them to rethink their position. ICJ did rule against Russia, and it makes sense since they invaded, but the roots of the conflict go back to attacks on Donetsk like you say since 2014 and various aggressive moves by NA…

The roots of the conflict go back to attacks on Donetsk and moves by NATO since 1991

All I can tell you is -- just because intellectual-sounding people like Chomsky, Mearsheimer et al; not to mention Putin himself -- whom you are apparently cribbing from, knowingly or otherwise -- say things like this, doesn't make it so. If you actually walk back and look at the event chronology you'll find there's no substantial basis for either of these narratives.

NATO (the US) is using Ukraine to fight Russia to the last Ukrainian,

The implication you are making here is that the Ukrainians at large have no real agency in the situation, and basically have no idea why they're actually fighting.

Re: As much as you ever wanted to know about 155M artillery shell production

#306

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> these shells have been redirected to Israel and are being used in Gaza The front in Gaza is not Israel's only wartime front, not in the current conflict and not during past conflicts: Currently, Israel needs this ammunition to defend itself from Hezbollah forces in Southern Lebanon that have engaged in heavy indiscriminate rocket launching against Israeli civilian populations in the Northern Israel. At least 65,000…

The attacks from Lebanon are in defense of Gaza and are part of Lebanon's legal obligation to prevent genocide. Aiding Israeli forces that are conducting illegal acts is complicity. > are performed to limit casualties of non-engaged civilians in the conflict. Over 20k Gazans have died, few of them resistance members because they are in tunnels. The majority of dead are women and children. Israel is attacking the fami…

The attacks from Lebanon are in defense of Gaza

Sorry, but this is simply naive. Hezbollah and Iran are doing what they're doing out of long-standing ulterior geopolitical motives. Not because they could give a flying toss about the Palestinians.

Re: As much as you ever wanted to know about 155M artillery shell production

#307

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The attacks from Lebanon are in defense of Gaza and are part of Lebanon's legal obligation to prevent genocide. Aiding Israeli forces that are conducting illegal acts is complicity. > are performed to limit casualties of non-engaged civilians in the conflict. Over 20k Gazans have died, few of them resistance members because they are in tunnels. The majority of dead are women and children. Israel is attacking the fami…

The attacks from Lebanon are in defense of Gaza Sorry, but this is simply naive. Hezbollah and Iran are doing what they're doing out of long-standing ulterior geopolitical motives. Not because they could give a flying toss about the Palestinians.

I wonder if those geopolitical motives has something to do with Israeli expansionism and settler-colonialism, which founded the Israeli state with the Nakba, the ethnic cleansing of Palestinians, in 1948? Surrounding states have been highly sympathetic to the Palestinian plight. Israel invaded Lebanon multiple times.

Re: As much as you ever wanted to know about 155M artillery shell production

#308
post #145

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Taiwan could build it's own nukes in a few months if it wanted. Chinese preparations for an invasion would take more than that.

Even the attempt to make them again might provoke China to react. Eventually with an invasion, after slagging the facilities with cruise missiles or air bombardment. They will be committed to overwhelm any air defense to accomplish that. What to do with them anyways? Taiwan would need plentiful supply of them and a reliable delivery mechanism. Japan surrendered because the US had total air superiority and bluffed abo…

> Japan surrendered because the US had total air superiority and bluffed about their supply of nukes.

This is at best disputed, and alternative explanations have a great deal more supporting evidence.

Re: As much as you ever wanted to know about 155M artillery shell production

#309

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The attacks from Lebanon are in defense of Gaza Sorry, but this is simply naive. Hezbollah and Iran are doing what they're doing out of long-standing ulterior geopolitical motives. Not because they could give a flying toss about the Palestinians.

I wonder if those geopolitical motives has something to do with Israeli expansionism and settler-colonialism, which founded the Israeli state with the Nakba, the ethnic cleansing of Palestinians, in 1948? Surrounding states have been highly sympathetic to the Palestinian plight. Israel invaded Lebanon multiple times.

Which founded the Israeli state with the Nakba,

Look, we all know the history. Please don't be so arrogant.

The main point is, if you were to break down the reasons why the theocratic regime in Iran really opposes Israel at every turn - as opposed to what the narratives that they're happy to let you believe, such as the above, say about these motives - you probably wouldn't be blithely repeating those narratives.

Re: As much as you ever wanted to know about 155M artillery shell production

#310
post #6

This reminds me of the excellent series "Blueprint for Armageddon" in Dan Carlin's Hardcore History podcast [1]. It's about the First World War. WWI tends to get less attention than WW2 and while there are good reasons why we focus on the atrocities of WW2, in some ways WWI was far more devastating. The artillery production mentioned here reminds me of how scales changed from the beginning to the end of the war. At t…

I'm a huge Dan Carlin fan. I started my career as a mechanical engineer, and I have a deep appreciation for chemistry and materials science, as everything rests on that. Most of the early transistor legends were chemists after all. Hence, I wanted to go a little deeper on the technical side with this blog, focused on the here and now.
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