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As much as you ever wanted to know about 155M artillery shell production

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Re: As much as you ever wanted to know about 155M artillery shell production

#271

Post by oneshtein »

inglor_cz wrote: post #194
MagnumOpus wrote: post #158

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> would never ever had access to launch codes What do you think, how many hours does it take to remove and jury-rig launch signal electronics for a motivated nation state at the cutting edge of weapons technology? If the Soviet troops had agreed to leave the bombs in situ, Ukraine would have had some sort of nuclear capability within the week. (And even if the Russians had sabotaged it, Iran and NorK prove that obtai…

"Ukraine would have had some sort of nuclear capability within the week." For how long? Nukes need maintenance. To maintain them, you will need to rebuild the entire supply chain on Ukrainian territory. Do you even have the necessary know-how? What percentage of GDP are you willing to spend on it? Until today, Ukraine has lower GDP than Czechia. In the 1990s, it was even worse. With their economy destroyed by decades…

Maintenance of nuclear missiles was done in Ukraine prior to the war. Ukraine built missiles, so Ukraine performed their maintenance.

Re: As much as you ever wanted to know about 155M artillery shell production

#272

Post by oneshtein »

somenameforme wrote: post #167
TulliusCicero wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, these pacifist-style comments are really tone deaf and out of touch. Yes, we'd all prefer peace and leaving each other alone, but if some other nation comes to kill your countrymen and replace your democracy with a puppet, suddenly just relying on pacifist ideals doesn't work well anymore. Most of the time, these commenters don't want to engage with reality as it currently exists. If you ask them what exactly y…

I agree that we should engage with reality as it currently exists. Davyd Arakhamia [1] is a Ukrainian member of parliament, in Zelensky's party. He was one of the negotiators early on with Russia. He stated that Russia's main demand was simply that Ukraine agree to not join NATO. Meduza has an article about it (which also links to the interview itself) here, as well as spin from various sides. [2] If you're unaware o…

Russia promised not to invade and then invaded, then promised not to invade, then invaded, then promised not to invade, then invaded, then promised not to invade Ukraine. Did the same trick for all former parts of Russian Empire, including Poland, Baltic States, Finland, etc.

Re: As much as you ever wanted to know about 155M artillery shell production

#273

Post by KptMarchewa »

samus wrote: post #145
hugryhoop wrote: post #128

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Taiwan could build it's own nukes in a few months if it wanted. Chinese preparations for an invasion would take more than that.

Even the attempt to make them again might provoke China to react. Eventually with an invasion, after slagging the facilities with cruise missiles or air bombardment. They will be committed to overwhelm any air defense to accomplish that. What to do with them anyways? Taiwan would need plentiful supply of them and a reliable delivery mechanism. Japan surrendered because the US had total air superiority and bluffed abo…

Tens of thousands of NK artillery pieces is a propaganda.

Re: As much as you ever wanted to know about 155M artillery shell production

#274

Post by KptMarchewa »

Log_out_ wrote: post #126
XorNot wrote: post #103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't know how to parse this comment. Why would the US give up on Taiwan "before it gets serious". If the US is involved in a shooting conflict in the Taiwanese strait, they either win or lose it conventionally but if it happens at all then nukes aren't getting involved unless mainland territorial invasions go on the table - and they're not going to. The reality is the US would very much like to avoid having to neg…

The US is currently loosing to Russia in Europe, it's all talk no walk, similar to west - europe.

With few hundred thousand russian casualties, and 0 US armed forces ones, Russia triumphally wins over US empire.

Re: As much as you ever wanted to know about 155M artillery shell production

#275

Post by KptMarchewa »

bbsz wrote: post #243
Log_out_ wrote: post #126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US is currently loosing to Russia in Europe, it's all talk no walk, similar to west - europe.

How? How US can be loosing a war it doesn't fight in? It's the same as saying that North Korea is loosing against Ukraine because they deliver ammunition to Russia. A fallacy. And even if you'd want to use that metric. How exactly loosing zero US personnel at the cost of getting a real-life assessment of NATO combined mobile warfare against the Soviet artillery superiority doctrine is a lose situation for US?

Which assessment of NATO mobile warfare we can talk about when there's literally no NATO's biggest asset - aviation and no biggest enabler or mobile warfare - battlefield isolation?

Re: As much as you ever wanted to know about 155M artillery shell production

#276

Post by _xnmw »

None of this explains HOW is it that the Russians are able to produce artillery shells at 7 times the rate of the entire Western world, while being sanctioned? If they can do it, why can't we?

[1] https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-ammunition-manufactur...

Re: As much as you ever wanted to know about 155M artillery shell production

#277

Post by KptMarchewa »

BlueTemplar wrote: post #232
dageshi wrote: post #181

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't really understand why people get so caught up on the fabs in Taiwan, as if their presence is the actual goal or the important thing. An invasion of Taiwan would probably effectively destroy globalisation, China exports would be sanctioned, China imports of energy and raw materials would be heavily disrupted (China's supply of fossil fuels is very vulnerable). It would be the most disruptive event to the world…

I guess that I am much more confident about globalization quickly finding alternative ways (consider how sanctions on Russia have trouble working, especially for oil).

People have a big tendency to overestimate how hard is to get over some temporary problema and it's long term importance, when those problems actually tend to commoditize over medium term. Now there are chips, before it was manufacturing and shipping, even before there was oil.

Re: As much as you ever wanted to know about 155M artillery shell production

#278

Post by snowpid »

_xnmw wrote: post #276

None of this explains HOW is it that the Russians are able to produce artillery shells at 7 times the rate of the entire Western world, while being sanctioned? If they can do it, why can't we? [1] https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-ammunition-manufactur...

I give it a try: - Russia gives more into DIB. Putin sees the war as essential. - Day and Night Production. - No enviroment laws involved.

Re: As much as you ever wanted to know about 155M artillery shell production

#279

Post by distances »

somenameforme wrote: post #198
jltsiren wrote: post #180

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The root issue is the culture of fear among Russian leadership. They are constantly afraid that someone is trying to stab them in the back. (And they are often right, but the backstabber is usually another Russian leader.) Because they live in fear, they cannot afford being trustworthy. And because they are not trustworthy, Russia's neighbors seek protection from other powers. Which in turn fuels the fears of Russian…

Imagine Russia completely disarmed itself, destroyed all nuclear weapons, deposed its entire military, and all military weapons and production capability. Exactly how long do you think it would be before the US invaded? We might debate the timeline, but I don't think you can argue in good faith that they wouldn't be invaded. But if you accept this then it becomes clear that trust is impossible. You have a power that…

That's wildly delusional. Russia is aggressive and expansionist so it imagines all other countries must be the same.

In truth, absolutely nobody is interested in invading Russia, perhaps China notwithstanding as it is also authoritarian and carries some bad blood from Russia annexing its territory back in the day. Western countries have no such interest and likely would outright reject any suggestions of returning the lands Soviet Union stole within Europe.

Russia would still of course not survive in its current form without military, but that's because it's a colonial empire that would quickly break apart if given a chance.

Re: As much as you ever wanted to know about 155M artillery shell production

#280

Post by NikkiA »

MagnumOpus wrote: post #158
butterknife wrote: post #131

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ukraine only housed Soviet nuclear missiles. They (Ukraine) would never ever had access to launch codes. That it is stated in Budapest memorandum along with the rest of the Soviet army leaving does not in any way make Ukraine a former nuclear power. We had Soviet nukes stationed in Czechia too. Does that make us a former nuclear power? I thought not... Slava Ukraini

> would never ever had access to launch codes What do you think, how many hours does it take to remove and jury-rig launch signal electronics for a motivated nation state at the cutting edge of weapons technology? If the Soviet troops had agreed to leave the bombs in situ, Ukraine would have had some sort of nuclear capability within the week. (And even if the Russians had sabotaged it, Iran and NorK prove that obtai…

'Launch signal' isn't the issue, you'd need to work past the PAL used for the weapon to be any significant threat, and soviet PALs were relatively complex based on multiple path lengths and timing deviations.

You could just rip the PAL out and build a new detonation timing system, but then you'd be re-doing a large part of the trial-and-error phase of the manhatten project.

It's not something that could happen in hours or weeks. Realistically more like months or years.

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