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As much as you ever wanted to know about 155M artillery shell production

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Re: As much as you ever wanted to know about 155M artillery shell production

#231

Post by MagnumOpus »

jabl wrote: post #138
dghughes wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I watched a news segment where a former government official close to Putin said people don't understand him. Putin goes into incredible detail when planning military campaigns. For Georgia and Ukraine Putin had been planning the attacks for decades. Plus he has a Plan B, Plan C etc. all that he wants he's decided already years ago and is not interested in anything else. You missed your chance for peace talks by a dec…

Planning the lightning strike and capture of Kyiv for decades? Truly a strategic genius, Putin is.

Underestimating the enemy rarely ends up well.

The decapitation strikes might have worked if Ukraine didn't have advance warning from very detailed intelligence, and if the Russian military was as competent as everyone assumed.

Re: As much as you ever wanted to know about 155M artillery shell production

#232

Post by BlueTemplar »

dageshi wrote: post #181
BlueTemplar wrote: post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But that only means that the US would give up on Taiwan before the fight would get any serious (from USA's point of view). I also kind of doubt that China is going to try, at least in the next decade or so, because those so far irreplaceable chip factories are almost certainly booby trapped and are a critical piece of the global economy, so China would be sabotaging itself first. (And Xi has probably a long way to go…

I don't really understand why people get so caught up on the fabs in Taiwan, as if their presence is the actual goal or the important thing. An invasion of Taiwan would probably effectively destroy globalisation, China exports would be sanctioned, China imports of energy and raw materials would be heavily disrupted (China's supply of fossil fuels is very vulnerable). It would be the most disruptive event to the world…

I guess that I am much more confident about globalization quickly finding alternative ways (consider how sanctions on Russia have trouble working, especially for oil).

Re: As much as you ever wanted to know about 155M artillery shell production

#233

Post by Paradigma11 »

zmgsabst wrote: post #223
Paradigma11 wrote: post #213

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Russia will always "be open" to negotiations if only to create cracks in the western support for Ukraine. But what are they offering? Last I head Putin was only prepared to negotiate based on the understanding that all occupied territories would stay under Russian control. Ukraine should have handled this better and also signaling being open for negotiations. On the condition of returning all territories that are wit…

Russia annexed those territories, following referendums, because Ukraine refused to negotiate. Russia views them as Russian territory now — and has said they’re willing to use nuclear weapons in their defense (as they would for any territory). De facto those are Russian. Ukraine has passed a law saying they absolutely refuse to negotiate a peace settlement with Putin. Again, you can believe that’s righteous… but all…

Who says that Russia would have honored that settlement? It didnt all the others. Russia invaded and annexed Crimea, then started the proxy war in the Donbas and then a few years later came back for a full invasion. Dont forget the plethora of different reasons Putin gives for the invasion. Bio Labs, nuclear weapons aspirations, language laws, civil war(that he himself started).......There will always be more than enough reasons for Russia to invade and annexes its neighbors. And they will do it.

This is nothing else than your typical post colonial/imperial war where Ukraine fights for its independence while Russia tries to reclaim some its former imperial territories.

Just watch what Russian politicians say, what is being written in the news, what all those political talkshows say. They are not even trying to hide it. Its mostly here in the west that you have those discussions.

Re: As much as you ever wanted to know about 155M artillery shell production

#234

Post by krapp »

schainks wrote: post #63
krapp wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So because the Department of Defense invented packet-switching networks fifty years ago, we owe them fealty? Respect? Hitler designed the original Volkswagen Beetle. Who cares? All of us tech people used to know a fascist when we smelled one, now some of us lick their boots for a paycheck.

Fealty is acknowledgment of loyalty, which is not what my my post suggests at all. If you were the son of a fascist, would you not still tell people the truth about your dad even if you told him to shove it long ago?

If I were the son of a fascist, I would tell people the truth that my father was a fascist.

If people were complaining about the influence of fascism on, say, the footwear industry, I would not tell people the truth that my father invented those plastic things on the ends of shoelaces (that are called aglets and whose true purpose is sinister) because that would come off as an apology for fascism.

That DARPA invented one small part of what would become the internet half a century later isn't germaine to criticisms of the influence of the government, intelligence or military on that internet. Silicon Valley has always been in the pocket of the military industrial complex, but most of the tech industry, to say nothing of tech and hacker culture, isn't from there and doesn't need to worry about biting the hand that feeds it.

Re: As much as you ever wanted to know about 155M artillery shell production

#235

Post by MagnumOpus »

consumer451 wrote: post #23
duped wrote: post #16

I don't think it's a "problem" that we don't have enough munitions to launch at other humans. It's a testament to our time that there aren't incentives for manufacturing death.

In the case of Russia vs NATO, the lack is also because Russia blew up a large ammunition depot inside the Czech Republic in preparation for the invasion of Ukraine. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Vrb%C4%9Btice_ammunition_...

And not just the Czech one.

2017 Balakliia, Ukraine https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Balakliia#2017%E2%80%932019_ar...

2017 Kalnyvka, Ukraine https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_Kalynivka_ammunition_depo...

2011, 2015, 2020 in Bulgaria https://www.thedailybeast.com/bulgaria-accuses-six-russians-...

All in preparation for the eventual invasion, in hindsight.

Re: As much as you ever wanted to know about 155M artillery shell production

#236

Post by denton-scratch »

jncfhnb wrote: post #127
lmm wrote: post #117

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> 10,000 shells can be displaced by 100 missiles. That might still be a bad tradeoff given that these 155mm shells are apparently $8,000 each, whereas a Storm Shadow is apparently $3,200,000 a pop.

You’re not hitting the same targets with a storm shadow

I read that the UK Storm Shadows are configured as bunker-busters, with two warheads - one for breaking into the bunker, one to explode inside it. The French Storm Shadows (can't remember what they call them) carry cluster warheads, which I suspect are more use to Ukraine during the current positional warfare.

Re: As much as you ever wanted to know about 155M artillery shell production

#237

Post by Paradigma11 »

somenameforme wrote: post #229
Paradigma11 wrote: post #211

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US can not even be bothered to pay 5% of its defense budget for Ukraine aid and you really think that they would invade Russia?

You could replace [Russia] there with the countless other countries we invade/occupy, for far lesser rewards than Russia would offer. So, yes I'm 100% certain we would.

Nobody cares about Russia unless it invades its neighbors or tries to fuck things up for the rest in another way. Russia is a gas station with nuclear weapons that is inherently self limited due to its kleptocracy.

And again, the US cant even be bothered to kill off Russia by supplying some insignificant amount of aid and you think that there would be boots on the ground?

Re: As much as you ever wanted to know about 155M artillery shell production

#238

Post by another2another »

maxglute wrote: post #221
hugryhoop wrote: post #209

Earlier quoted context omitted.

US in Korea or UK in HK were not in a survival situation as Taiwan would be. > drop 50-100k troops That's fantasy land, most of those planes would be shot down, and if not the soldiers would land in a kill zone with no reinforcements.

This is about PRC willingness to eat nukes for security interests independant of TW willingness to survive. Shoot down with what, preempt air campaign would have destroyed most of TW anti air. Fantasy is thinking TW has any chance to deny the air game. Planner for porcupine model US advocates doesn't assume TW has any chance to deny PRC air superiority, only hope they sink enough amphib to deny mass invasion, and bar…

Taiwan's better option would be to build submarines with Nukes, and position them all over the Pacific.

Capturing the mainland won't help you at all in that case, and there's no way you would get them all. It would be a MAD situation, and that's all TW needs.

Re: As much as you ever wanted to know about 155M artillery shell production

#239

Post by jabl »

MagnumOpus wrote: post #231
jabl wrote: post #138

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Planning the lightning strike and capture of Kyiv for decades? Truly a strategic genius, Putin is.

Underestimating the enemy rarely ends up well. The decapitation strikes might have worked if Ukraine didn't have advance warning from very detailed intelligence, and if the Russian military was as competent as everyone assumed.

Not saying Putin should be underestimated. Even if his strategic cunning is on the level of a village idiot, he clearly has a lot of men and material to throw into the meat grinder. And pretty clearly he doesn't give a shit about casualties either.

That the West has been unable to provide sufficient support to Ukraine to stand against this aggression is a mark of shame that will take a long time to wash away.

Re: As much as you ever wanted to know about 155M artillery shell production

#240

Post by hackandthink »

mopsi wrote: post #107
hackandthink wrote: post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Stupid politics and not enough diplomacy didn't work there. https://www.mearsheimer.com/public_talks/why-is-ukraine-the-...

Mearsheimer is literally on Russian payroll. His works have received financial support from Russian government through the so-called Valdai club. Andrei Kozyrev, the minister of foreign affairs of the Russian Federation (1990-1996), had this to say about the purpose of the club and people like Mearsheimer: I ask Kozyrev about a debate that has roiled the American foreign policy establishment in the leadup to this war…

Kozyrev statements are interesting, it is a tragedy that he failed and that the revanchists won.

But Ukraine's und USA's way to deal with the revanchists (full confrontation) was reckless and stupid.

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