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As much as you ever wanted to know about 155M artillery shell production

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201–210 of 367 posts

Re: As much as you ever wanted to know about 155M artillery shell production

#201

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

>ust ask Angela Merkel about their sincerity: > In an interview published in Germany's Zeit magazine on Wednesday, former German chancellor Angela Merkel said that the Minsk agreements had been an attempt to "give Ukraine time" to build up its defences. What's wrong with that? Obviously, you don't think anyone has a right to defend themselves against aggression from Russia.

That’s obviously Ukraine and Western allies not implementing Minsk in good faith, as the post I was responding to claimed.

Re: As much as you ever wanted to know about 155M artillery shell production

#202
post #145

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Even the attempt to make them again might provoke China to react. Eventually with an invasion, after slagging the facilities with cruise missiles or air bombardment. They will be committed to overwhelm any air defense to accomplish that. What to do with them anyways? Taiwan would need plentiful supply of them and a reliable delivery mechanism. Japan surrendered because the US had total air superiority and bluffed abo…

If Taiwan sees China assembling an invasion force, why not build a nuke then, China already signaled that it's going to attack anyway. A nuke is easy to hide, we are not talking about global second strike capability here, just delivering a couple of them to close coastal cities, even by smuggling them in some civilian transport. Can China be 100% sure that not one slipped through? Taiwan could do a proof detonation o…

> A nuke is easy to hide

This doesn’t make sense. The point of nukes is to say you have them so no one touches you. You become a prickly porcupine.

The only country that doesn’t follow this rule is Israel, but they just present it differently (“MAYBE I’m a prickly porcupine. Touch me and find out.”)

Re: As much as you ever wanted to know about 155M artillery shell production

#203

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

> I only pointed out Russia’s behavior to highlight they’ve consistently worked towards an amicable settlement In what world is annexing territory you don't even control on the basis of a referendum you canceled before rescheduling due to losses on the battlefield working towards an amicable settlement? Since February 2022, I haven't seen much evidence that Russia has made any serious attempts to achieve an amicable…

Russia was negotiating even after hostilities escalated — up until April 2022, when Boris Johnson scuttled the peace settlement.

Since then, Russia has repeatedly offered to negotiate a settlement, but Ukraine refuses to negotiate.

You can believe that’s a good idea, but indisputably it’s Ukraine who won’t negotiate.

Re: As much as you ever wanted to know about 155M artillery shell production

#204
post #199

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Mainland China wants Taiwan back since WW2, chip fabs are a bonus, maybe that is. The big problem of a Chinese invasion so is: the Taiwan straight. They have to get the invasion force across, that meens a lot of big, slow, fat transport vessels. Those are easily sunk, meaning not enough boots on the ground. Which leaves pounding Taiwan with missiles.

Chinese don't have to invade Taiwan to conquer it. They can take Kinmen isle without breaking a sweat. No one is crazy enough to go to war over it, and that might put Taiwan into panic mode. Another is to isolate it politically and create a soft blockade around it.

Soft blackade, that is pointless. And a hard one is basically an escalation to war (see: Cuban Missile Crisis).

A country in, maybe, panic mode is not conquered. And if said island is strategically important enough, yes, people will go to war over it. And if it isn't, there is no real point beyond symbolism to take it in the first place.

Re: As much as you ever wanted to know about 155M artillery shell production

#205

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, these pacifist-style comments are really tone deaf and out of touch. Yes, we'd all prefer peace and leaving each other alone, but if some other nation comes to kill your countrymen and replace your democracy with a puppet, suddenly just relying on pacifist ideals doesn't work well anymore. Most of the time, these commenters don't want to engage with reality as it currently exists. If you ask them what exactly y…

I agree that we should engage with reality as it currently exists. Davyd Arakhamia [1] is a Ukrainian member of parliament, in Zelensky's party. He was one of the negotiators early on with Russia. He stated that Russia's main demand was simply that Ukraine agree to not join NATO. Meduza has an article about it (which also links to the interview itself) here, as well as spin from various sides. [2] If you're unaware o…

I find this summary https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/did-ukraine-miss-an-ear... pretty convincing. It basically says that the massacres of Bucha and the disastrous Russian performance in their attack on Kyiv are the reason that Ukraine did not negotiate a seize fire. Plus, while Russia started very tough in the negotiations, after their Kyiv convoy broke down they basically agreed to everything. If you know anything about Russian military history, you know that this means they wanted to use negotiations to consolidate their forces and try again better prepared.

We in the western world tend to see such conflicts like a game/puzzle where there is always a winning door that leads to happiness for all participants. Since there are only two choices and the current situation is bad, Ukraine must have made the wrong choice and we would be living happily ever after, if they only had agreed to a deal.

Needless to say that Putin loves to play on this mindset by saying all the things all the time. There will always be many groups in the west that will pick out quotes to bolster their favorite narrative and ignore the rest.

Re: As much as you ever wanted to know about 155M artillery shell production

#206

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If Taiwan sees China assembling an invasion force, why not build a nuke then, China already signaled that it's going to attack anyway. A nuke is easy to hide, we are not talking about global second strike capability here, just delivering a couple of them to close coastal cities, even by smuggling them in some civilian transport. Can China be 100% sure that not one slipped through? Taiwan could do a proof detonation o…

> A nuke is easy to hide This doesn’t make sense. The point of nukes is to say you have them so no one touches you. You become a prickly porcupine. The only country that doesn’t follow this rule is Israel, but they just present it differently (“MAYBE I’m a prickly porcupine. Touch me and find out.”)

I meant is easy to hide for the purpose of transporting it, for example in a shipping containers, millions of which go to/from China.

Re: As much as you ever wanted to know about 155M artillery shell production

#207

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Pretty much. On paper US anti missile intercepts has been performing well in UKR and Red Sea, but consider the actual numbers. In UKR, 6 Kinzhals, alleged moving at shit tier mach ~3 speed end up damaging a patriot. In Red Sea, shit tier Houthi/Iranian cruise (subsonic) / ballistics, launched in even less coordinated salvos, realistically singles since description of multi missile attacks report these events unfold o…

>IMO people behind the scenes also sees the writing on the wall for large surface ships. Considering this and Taiwan, it's funny that Congress isn't pushing for more SSGNs and accelerating the SSN(X) program.

IMO when seriously consider the math, the firepower:acquisition cost ratio doesn't make much sense, especially against PRC. SSGN with ~150 tomahawks, subsonic, easier to intercept, will likely never be reloadable at sea, and may not be able to operate permissively around PRC in due time. PRC ASW is improving rapidly, and they're deploying subsea ASW infra within 1st island chain. Not much info on projected upgrade of hypersonics to subsurface flee, but if extrapolate from zumwalt hypersonic projections current 80 cells for TLAM (tomahawks) whittles down to 12 CGHBs (common hypersonic glide bodies), that's ~20 more lethal CGHBs on subs and combined with multi week roundtrip to reload and get back into theatre, it's essentially nothing. For reference it's estimated taking out PRC SCS island bases will require 400-500 tomahawks, and that may only temporarily disable runways. Even if US can take out entire PLANavy, PRC can sustain massive war effort from mainland aviation/rocketry, the latter could feasibly hit CONUS. I think that's whats ultimately driving procurement decisions, trying to deliver the most survivable firepower which a lot of these larger projects are subpar at (again relative to PRC) if war ever escalates to homeland strikes. Hence Navy Force Design focusing on expanding with smaller unmanned ships / distributed lethality model (which will include lots of unmanned subsurface). In the meantime, large, expensive, eggs in a basket platforms that are difficult to crew, impossible to replace during war, that's been in pipeline for a long time and are being pursued to institutional inertia, because brass doesn't want to kill their baby.

VS 100+ B21s with less labour and per unit cost that can deliver around the clock, probably difficult to shoot down unless they're parked in hardened hanger or their midair tanking (if needed) gets degraded, but losing one is a couple pilots and 1/10th the cost.

Re: As much as you ever wanted to know about 155M artillery shell production

#208
post #83

The US government-owned facilities are not the only US source of 155mm rounds. NAMMO [1] is a major manufacturer, and they have a facility in Mesa, AZ. Here's their marketing video for 155mm rounds.[2] Nammo's management complains that they are being offered 3-4 year contracts, and they need 10-15 year contracts to build new factories. Peacetime demand for large-caliber ammo is very low, so when there's not a war on,…

> Peacetime demand for large-caliber ammo is very low

Even in the US?

Re: As much as you ever wanted to know about 155M artillery shell production

#209

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Taiwan has underground facilities from it's previous attempt at building nuclear weapons. Even after a Chinese decimation attack, if the invasion force is not immediatly ready Taiwan will still have enough time to build the nukes.

And how would they deliver? By the time they get a device (untested), every entrance to underground facilities would have been destroyed with persistent aerial coverage for follow on strikes to make sure they stay destroyed. If TW was credibly trying to nuclearize, both US/PRC would be coordinating to try stop it because PRC would directly attribute TW nuclear use to US negligence. Realistically if PRC seriously thin…

US in Korea or UK in HK were not in a survival situation as Taiwan would be.

> drop 50-100k troops

That's fantasy land, most of those planes would be shot down, and if not the soldiers would land in a kill zone with no reinforcements.

Re: As much as you ever wanted to know about 155M artillery shell production

#210
post #83

The US government-owned facilities are not the only US source of 155mm rounds. NAMMO [1] is a major manufacturer, and they have a facility in Mesa, AZ. Here's their marketing video for 155mm rounds.[2] Nammo's management complains that they are being offered 3-4 year contracts, and they need 10-15 year contracts to build new factories. Peacetime demand for large-caliber ammo is very low, so when there's not a war on,…

> Israel is unhappy that the US stores of ammo in Israel are being sent to Ukraine Yes, they have their own ground-leveling to do after all..

Grounds not going to level itself now is it
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