Earlier quoted context omitted.
The US military is very much interested in fusion, as an energy source. The Desert Storm conflict cost something like $1T (yes a Trillion dollars) just for gasoline. There was on this site a description of a military effort to create a low-yield fusion generator that would fit on a military truck. It only had to fuel a mobile camp, not a city. If I recall, it was something like the Lockheed plan, to create a vortex (…
Setting aside the wildly suspect 1T claim, I’m not convinced by the argument. Fusion power plants are fixed large-scale facilities. In a war zone you need mobile power sources. I could see a fusion reactor powering a ship and maybe powering temporarily shore-based facilities. AFAIK the military is looking at solar for mobile power in forward deployments though which makes sense. Unless the argument is that fusion is…
Momentary fusion breakthroughs face hard reality
51–60 of 71 posts
Re: Momentary fusion breakthroughs face hard reality
#52Earlier quoted context omitted.
The US military is very much interested in fusion, as an energy source. The Desert Storm conflict cost something like $1T (yes a Trillion dollars) just for gasoline. There was on this site a description of a military effort to create a low-yield fusion generator that would fit on a military truck. It only had to fuel a mobile camp, not a city. If I recall, it was something like the Lockheed plan, to create a vortex (…
> a low-yield fusion generator that would fit on a military truck. another word for that is "drone target."
Re: Momentary fusion breakthroughs face hard reality
#53Earlier quoted context omitted.
The US military is very much interested in fusion, as an energy source. The Desert Storm conflict cost something like $1T (yes a Trillion dollars) just for gasoline. There was on this site a description of a military effort to create a low-yield fusion generator that would fit on a military truck. It only had to fuel a mobile camp, not a city. If I recall, it was something like the Lockheed plan, to create a vortex (…
That seems wildly high? The figure widely quoted for the total cost of the Gulf War is $60B in 1991 dollars, or $137B today, so clearly the gasoline costs alone can't exceed that number. It's only the extremely prolonged conflicts like the War in Afghanistan that get into the trillions of dollars total.
Here's an estimate of the costs of air conditioning tents in the mideast conflicts: https://www.npr.org/2011/06/25/137414737/among-the-costs-of-...
Re: Momentary fusion breakthroughs face hard reality
#54Imagine a second Manhattan Project, except this time, it's to produce fusion energy and try to save the world from climate disasters instead of making a weapon. Who would you tap to participate in/lead this?
Elon Musk and his ability to gather financing and top engineers
Re: Momentary fusion breakthroughs face hard reality
#55Imagine a second Manhattan Project, except this time, it's to produce fusion energy and try to save the world from climate disasters instead of making a weapon. Who would you tap to participate in/lead this?
Also we probably shouldn't count on a miracle to save us from climate change.
Re: Momentary fusion breakthroughs face hard reality
#56Earlier quoted context omitted.
> a low-yield fusion generator that would fit on a military truck. another word for that is "drone target."
Everything in war is a target
Re: Momentary fusion breakthroughs face hard reality
#57Earlier quoted context omitted.
One of the biggest challenges is that the fusion reaction can't be fully contained. There are particles without electric charge that simply go through your magnetic containment field and smash into the reactor wall, continuously destroying it. You don't really care about preserving the shell of your bomb. You care about preserving the shell of your reactor.
How do fusion researchers handle that problem?
This is yet another reason that fusion research is expensive and time consuming, the cost involved in manufacturing these components and time lost in painstaking teardowns and overhauls between test runs.
Re: Momentary fusion breakthroughs face hard reality
#58Earlier quoted context omitted.
What’s your math on $15/MWh? As far as I can tell, the steam turbine is a pretty insignificant part of the price of coal energy generation
$15/MWh is 1.5 ¢/KWh, right? that's pretty darn cheap and means that the other 10~20 cents would be transmission and fuel, yes?
Re: Momentary fusion breakthroughs face hard reality
#59> Plenty of other obstacles remain than those noted above, too. Current calculations compare energy generated against the NIF laser’s output, but that brushes over the fact that the lasers draw more than 100 times the power from the grid than any fusion reaction yields. That means either energy gains or laser efficiency would need to improve by two orders of magnitude to break even in any practical sense. The NIF’s f…
I think you answer your own question.
NIF does a lot more than weapons. Ignition is also a different problem than sustaining a fusion reaction, but both are important aspects of the fusion energy generation problem. You can think of this like the difference between static friction and kinetic friction. You would never try to generate power by performing tons and tons of ignitions. You generate power by doing the ignition and then sustaining the reaction. There's even people working on setups just like this. You can see how ITER works here[0]. You can modify this procedure to have laser based ignition (or some other form) and then feed this into the toroidal reactor. There's a bunch of ideas out there but I think this is the most straightforward.
As to a more systematic approach to answering "why" and why this type of language is pervasive regardless of the domain, is because a lot of people have a difficult time differentiating TRLs[1]. Or maybe even more bluntly, research from products. I think it won't be hard to find high rated HN comments on research works that come out of universities who's critique is that the process is expensive and doesn't beat current industrial processes, but this is a grave misunderstanding of how technological progress happens. It's overly dismissive. Technology often progresses by iterative discontinuous S-curves, which at a zoomed out level looks more smooth. So new technology often starts off way worse but the key part of this is the theoretical maximum. A good example of this might be in batteries or solar panels. People are highly dismissive of any technology that is yet to become a product (TRL 6-7-ish). Which it is good to not jump to assertions that a low TRL result means new products, but it's the same type of error, just in the other direction. Either way, critical context is being ignored.
I think if we more appropriately contextualized technological development then we wouldn't have these issues. I don't like them either tbh. I'd rather be honest. But truth has bounded simplicity and lies don't. Since a lot of people ignore nuance it creates an incentive system to exaggerate or leave out important details. Frustrating, but understandable. Hopefully understanding can help us to disrupt this systematic incentive system and instead promote more nuanced and honest discussions. But I think we need to recognize expertise does not transfer between domains well and discourage claims and comments that lack nuance. But nuanced and accurate comments require more words, so we might just be fucked and this is just a pipedream. Some people think we can't rely on humans being nuanced and intelligent creatures but I'm not convinced and more convinced these are just products of environmental pressures. I guess we'll see.
[0] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5tH4obUsY64
[1] https://www.nasa.gov/directorates/somd/space-communications-...
Re: Momentary fusion breakthroughs face hard reality
#60Earlier quoted context omitted.
NIF uses inefficient lasers because they were cheap to build at the time and because NIF is a science experiment. Lasers have gotten better. And lasers aren't the only way ICF fusion could be carried out, it may be possible to use ion beams instead[0]. It does not matter if fusion reactions last microseconds if they generate more energy. Using optimistic, but not unrealistic assumptions, it appears feasible for elect…
Those numbers don't seem feasible. Near as I can tell, a steam generator with a magical source of never-ending heat would cost $15/MWh. There is no way a high-tech facility and the personnel required to run it are costing $10/MWh.
1. Move to supercritical Co2 turbines (lower mass —> lower cost), need RnD on corrosion resistant alloys
2. Move to thermoelectric or photovoltaic generators
3. Use aneutronic fusion
Directly use the charged particles