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More misdrilled holes on 737 MAX in latest setback

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Re: More misdrilled holes on 737 MAX in latest setback

#371
post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is irrational. Since November 2001, there has been one death aboard a major airline operating in the U.S.[1]. That was a Southwest flight where an entire engine self-destructed. It was an issue with the CFM engine, Not with anything Boeing did. You might choose to include one more. An Asiana flight tumbled end over end after arriving short at SFO. Everyone survived the crash, but a passenger was killed when an eme…

There were a total of three fatalities resulting from Asiana 214. Two passengers died onboard, as a direct consequence of the crash. As for the third, it was later speculated that they could possibly have already died before encountering airport fire and rescue vehicles. This is still controversial; it is also possible that the original sequence of events was correct. The primary cause of the crash was a profound lac…

I should have double-checked. I was going off memory. I lived in SF at the time, and I remembered only the person who died after the crash. My memory was wrong. If I could go back and amend my comment to address this (and other inconsistencies pointed out by others), I would.

Re: More misdrilled holes on 737 MAX in latest setback

#372
post #340
post #291

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> domestic flyers in the U.S. deserve something better than a 1967 design. And Boeing was working on a replacement for the entire 737-757 line, a brand new airplane using many of the same concepts as the 787 "Dreamliner" but it took a long time and in 2011 Southwest blackmailed them if they need to retrain their pilots then they might as well buy Airbus. Sources. First for the replacement airplane. https://www.dallas…

Obviously 2011 Boeing couldn't see into the future, but I do wonder if standing firm against Southwest -- even if they went and bought Airbus -- would still have been better for the company in the long run. Wikipedia says Southwest has the fourth-largest fleet in the world (today, dunno about in 2011); while that's a lot, that's still only 800-some planes; did Boeing really let an airline with a 7%-or-so share of the…

American airlines don't buy new planes. Third-world airplanes buy new airplanes and once they've taken depreciation for them they sell them to American airlines. Even if they quit making new 737s, Southwest could be still flying old 737s 40 years from now.

It's tempting to say that some of the worst airports in the US (say Newark) are "third-world" but the truth is that a bad airport in the third world is often a lot better than any airport in the U.S.

This prof was talking about defects in the last generation 737

https://www.ithaca.com/news/cornell-expert-boeing-737-plane-...

Re: More misdrilled holes on 737 MAX in latest setback

#373

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> You don’t think twice about hopping into a passenger vehicle. I think twice quite regularly about hopping into a Tesla, and after years of avoiding them solely for aesthetic dislike, I found that they also have been burying quality control issues rather than repairing them — just like Boeing! — and so I intend to continue avoiding riding in them whenever possible. > You don’t […] refuse to hop in an Uber driving th…

[flagged]

> you’re anti-Maxx

Well, I was a big fan of the Maxx when it broadcast back of the 90s, I think?, but I haven’t rewatched it since then, so I don’t really have any opinion anymore. Maybe I’ll take a look again, though I admit I don’t follow how it’s related.

> I don’t trust Pfizer / Boeing

Their Covid vaccine is second to none for me, of all the different vaccines I’ve received since 2015. You’re definitely missing out — I encourage giving them a second chance for your next booster. Is there some financial connection between Pfizer and Boeing that I should be aware of?

Re: More misdrilled holes on 737 MAX in latest setback

#374

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If the anecdotes are accurate > It's also certainly not clear that Elon has an engineering-first mindset If A, then B. Struggle with definitions all we want, Boeing needs a dose of Musk's attitude towards engineering and manufacturing. It is the most important thing they do, and I don't think the C-suite understands that. That's the most distilled version of what I'm saying. Musk is the best recent example of this…

> If A, then B If Elon's thoroughly understands the products his companies develop, he has an engineering-first mindset? That logic would also apply to many CEOs we wouldn't consider "engineering-first" CEOs. > Struggle with definitions all we want, For me, this is the only discussion. My focus is not at all on whether Elon would be a good fit for Boeing. I don't give a shit about that conversation.

I don't want Elon to run Boeing, that's never been part of my argument. I want leadership at Boeing that elevates engineers, understands that engineering is absolutely critical, and punishes bean-counters for pushing against a good engineering culture.

Re: More misdrilled holes on 737 MAX in latest setback

#375
post #357

Earlier quoted context omitted.

346 people died in two similar crashes of two Boeing 747 Max planes. Boing and the FAA initially cast the blame on supposedly lower standards at the Indonesian and Ethiopian airlines operating the planes, but this was completely unsupported and incorrect speculation. Poor processes at Boeing and the FAA were in fact responsible. Unfortunately the incorrect narrative has persisted.

Sure, but there are really two questions: 1) Do we believe that the issues that caused those two crashes were not sufficiently dealt with, such that they might recur? 2) Do we believe that there are other issues that could cause catastrophic failures that could result in further deaths? I feel pretty safe in saying "no" for #1. #2 is harder to answer. So far the new issues found are unlikely to cause further deaths,…

> IIRC there was a report about a third plane that (after at least the first crash, not sure if it was before or after the second) ran into the same issue with MCAS, but correctly followed the recovery procedure and was fine. Now, it could be that the recovery procedure is unreliable, and that third cockpit crew got lucky. But I don't recall what came of all that.

> And on top of that, the two planes that crashed didn't have optional equipment (a disagree indicator, IIRC) that would have likely given the pilots extra and sufficient information to understand what was wrong and avoid a crash.

The first plane had experienced unwanted/incorrect runaway MCAS activation on the flight before the accident flight; the pilots turned off electric trim for the rest of the flight (which is part of the memory checklist) [1], and the aircraft was subsequently cleared by mechanics for the accident flight.

On the second accident flight, it seems that the pilots were unable to complete the specialized checklist for improper MCAS activation, as aerodynamic forces made manual trim impossible. Wikipedia notes that the earlier 737-200 had a procedure for recovery in this situation, but it had not been part of training for quite some time.

> And on top of that, the two planes that crashed didn't have optional equipment (a disagree indicator, IIRC) that would have likely given the pilots extra and sufficient information to understand what was wrong and avoid a crash.

I don't think knowing that the airspeed indicators disagree is enough to know what to do, in absence of knowledge of the MCAS. Perhaps, it could have helped the 2nd accident crew, if they had been able to connect the dots and disable electric trim before trim position became too extreme to manually correct. For the first airplane, I don't think it would have helped, because the implications of wrong airspeed information were unknown; maybe it would have resulted in the broken sensor being replaced after the penultimate flight though.

Sensible limits on automation would likely have prevented both accidents (and was implemented after the second accident). Transparency about MCAS may have helped with the first accident, but clearly wasn't enough for the second. Separate cutoff switches for automation and electric trim would have helped with the second flight (there's two switches already!), but knowledge of MCAS would be a prerequisite.

In the first accident, both the pilot and first officer were quite experienced, but in the second, the first officer had less than 400 hours of flight time, which is significantly less than the 1,500 hours required to be a first officer in the US. Increased flight experience may or may not have helped in this case, but is an area where US carriers differ from international carriers.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lion_Air_Flight_610#Investigat... see "previous flight problems"

Re: More misdrilled holes on 737 MAX in latest setback

#376
post #364

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That doesn't sound likely. They can wait for existing planes to age out and then buy a competitor's planes. For many reasons including fuel efficiency, when an airline retires a plane they are not going to replace it with the exact same plane. So some levels of pilot retraining is expected.

The A320neo family has a backlog of over 7000 orders. As much as Airbus is ramping up production in the past few years, with their current ~600 goal for 2024 that’s still a 12 year wait if you order one today.

And that only gets you so far because Spirit Aerosystems supplies major components for Airbus as well (including A320neo): https://www.spiritaero.com/company/programs/

Re: More misdrilled holes on 737 MAX in latest setback

#377

This is to the point where, although it's irrational but I know statistically I'd be fine, I'd be scared to fly on any new generation Boeing.

I really hope that airlines start to offer a discount to fly on a 737MAX. I'd be all over that.

Don't forget that Airbus also uses Spirit AeroSystems.

Re: More misdrilled holes on 737 MAX in latest setback

#378

I've read in a different place that the many problems could be a result of uncareful and miscoordinated outsourcing, particularly in the software domain. Is there any good information / insight on this?

Both this issue and issue with the door bolts were caused by Spirit, who Boeing outsourced the production of fuselages to. There's lots of info on the quality troubles with them going back years. For example here is an article from May of last year [1] about a quality issue with Spirit that had been going on for 4 years. Here [2] is one from last October which says "The goal of the agreement is to stabilize Spirit’s…

> Both this issue and issue with the door bolts were caused by Spirit

This seems like a good time to mention that Airbus also uses Spirit AeroSystems.

Re: More misdrilled holes on 737 MAX in latest setback

#379

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's actually exactly the wrong thing to do. The problem, at least in this case, is that Boeing chose to break off what is now known as Spirit Aerosystems into a separate entity, and now Spirit has Boeing by the balls because Boeing can't replace them and has to deal with the consequences of their shitty manufacturing and QC.

>The problem, at least in this case, is that Boeing chose to break off what is now known as Spirit Aerosystems into a separate entity Spirit is nothing more than a basket of limited liability set up by Boeing for precisely such an ocurrence. Pretending that it's anything else is just buying into their BS corporate spin.

A simple web search will show that's not true, unless you have some evidence to back up your claim?

Re: More misdrilled holes on 737 MAX in latest setback

#380

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the real problem here is over-reliance on cost-savings as a single dimension of quality.

Cost savings and quality live on different scales so.

If a customer wants to buy thousands of a widget at $1500 and you usually sell them at $2000 a widget but you can move the slider on maintainability or make an agreement that the customer accepts some reduced quality -- if that's something the two businesses can agree on and it's not a negligent change to make then it's probably worth prioritizing that. I think we might agree on that.

Trying to figure out what to do in any given business situation is usually challenging because the devil is in the details. It happens that in this particular case, Boeing should be checking that their supplier installs bolts and drills holes correctly because their supplier has screwed it up so many times. But in a lot of industries, cheaping out on materials is a reasonable thing to do if your customers agree it's a reasonable thing to do and it's not going to kill anyone.

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