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Physical cash is dying–and you don't need to be a conspiracist to worry

prospectmagazine.co.uk

181–190 of 498 posts

Re: Physical cash is dying–and you don't need to be a conspiracist to worry

#181
post #131

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Would it raise the value of the currency if the central bank didn't know this stash was destroyed? It seems like this pile of cash would still be considered to be "in circulation" until the central bank declared it to not be.

A better question is do I make everyone else’s dollar worth more for the duration that I hold and don’t spend my dollars

Yes. That is precisely why we don't get runaway inflation when people own a ton of property or have tons of money in index funds. That money supply isn't doing anything in particular.

Re: Physical cash is dying–and you don't need to be a conspiracist to worry

#182

> [On] 23rd August 1994, the chaotic music duo and performance artists Bill Drummond and Jimmy Cauty burned £1m of notes behind a boathouse on the Scottish island of Jura. They are not alone in attempting to reduce money’s power… They literally increased the purchasing power of each remaining pound by doing so.

The Bank of England destroys between 10-30 billion pounds worth of notes per year (no longer fit for circulation). Sterling has other issuing banks too beyond BoE. I don’t think it’s possible to measure 1m notes going absent by any observable metric. Even if it were possible, the purchasing power wouldn’t change - you coffee shop wouldn’t reduce their prices but they might adjust staffing levels in an extreme case (n…

"The Bank of England destroys between 10-30 billion pounds worth of notes per year (no longer fit for circulation)."

The difference is that when BoE destroys notes they are accounted for by either the issuing of new notes and or crediting their withdrawal with a bank-entry credit thus the money in circulation does not change.

Burning notes willy nilly effectively reduces the amount of currency in circulation because the central bank thinks the money still in circulation and doesn't replace it. This is why in many countries defacing or destroying the currency is unlawful.

Re: Physical cash is dying–and you don't need to be a conspiracist to worry

#183

There are two fallacies I frequently feel the need to debunk in this discussion. - Cash is anonymous - Cash is an "old" or "low" technology. When a serious crime is committed you might be surprised how much the police can do to trace cash. Serial numbers in and out of ATMs and shops are tracked, and frequently your face is captured by cameras in stores, ATMs and vending machines. Modern cash is high technology . Look…

> Smart people at the top...

Who exactly? Where are these people in power defending physical cash or recommending an alternative monetary medium resilient to grid failure?

Re: Physical cash is dying–and you don't need to be a conspiracist to worry

#184
post #119

It's strange that governments are not minting more digital currency if the demand for physical currency is falling.

Tell me you're a bitcoin guy that's never taken a single Macro class without telling me... Government prerogative is to create currency ex-nihilo; there's no need waste a bunch of energy in that process.

A money printer doesn't just magically create money out of thin air. Printing it as a cryptocurrency would use less energy than printing it physically. Alternatively the government could just edit a bank account it already has and just increase its balance.

Re: Physical cash is dying–and you don't need to be a conspiracist to worry

#185

There are two fallacies I frequently feel the need to debunk in this discussion. - Cash is anonymous - Cash is an "old" or "low" technology. When a serious crime is committed you might be surprised how much the police can do to trace cash. Serial numbers in and out of ATMs and shops are tracked, and frequently your face is captured by cameras in stores, ATMs and vending machines. Modern cash is high technology . Look…

What the police and other authorities 'can do' is a world away from what they 'actually do', in 99% of cases.

You could be unlucky if your crime passes a certain threshold or affects someone with power but, most of the time, it will not be investigated with the resources of the state.

Re: Physical cash is dying–and you don't need to be a conspiracist to worry

#186

There are two fallacies I frequently feel the need to debunk in this discussion. - Cash is anonymous - Cash is an "old" or "low" technology. When a serious crime is committed you might be surprised how much the police can do to trace cash. Serial numbers in and out of ATMs and shops are tracked, and frequently your face is captured by cameras in stores, ATMs and vending machines. Modern cash is high technology . Look…

>how much the police can do to trace cash

It doable but not at all trivial.

>It's well past the point of being worth forging

The news seem to indicate plenty of forgers still, e.g.:

https://www.europol.europa.eu/media-press/newsroom/news/poss...

>it is likely that future banknotes will use einks

einks are too expensive right now?

Re: Physical cash is dying–and you don't need to be a conspiracist to worry

#187

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The central bank's knowledge isn't relevant in any way. The value of the currency goes up because the willingness of people to spend it went down. You can't spend money that doesn't exist, so this effect will occur regardless of anyone's knowledge of anything.

I don't really understand your comment. Generally it's accepted that the value went up because it became more rare as the number of unit went down. Or similarly because if all the money represents the price of everything in the economy, as there is less money and assuming that everything in the economy didn't change, then everything has now a slightly lower price.

> Generally it's accepted that the value went up because it became more rare as the number of unit went down.

That's true.

> Or similarly because if all the money represents the price of everything in the economy, as there is less money and assuming that everything in the economy didn't change, then everything has now a slightly lower price.

That can't be true in any meaningful way, because all the money doesn't represent the price of everything in the economy. "Everything in the economy" is always worth many multiples of "all the money".

The definition you'll see in economics is MV = PY. It's defined with reference to the concept of GDP, and the variables are:

M is the amount of money (that year).

V is the "velocity of money", the average number of times that a particular dollar gets spent (that year).

P is the price level. The value of money (that year) is 1/P.

Y is the amount of non-monetary stuff that is produced (that year).

(I would be happier if Y was the amount of non-monetary stuff that existed, but that does not appear to be how economists prefer to talk about it. This set of definitions lets you say that MV is equal to NGDP.)

You can characterize the effect of destruction of money as a reduction in M or as a reduction in V. If you take the view that the money still exists, because it's listed on a balance sheet somewhere, then M has not gone down, but under that view V still has; it's impossible to spend that money. Assuming everyone's urge to spend as a function of their ability to spend stays unchanged, you'll see that the party who locked up $1 million (by destroying it) will, as a result, spend less. Everyone else in the relevant universe is unaffected and spends just as much as they would have anyway. Then, by our special analysis, the amount of total money spent has gone down, and the amount of money in existence hasn't, so the velocity of money has gone down.

Y is unaffected by the destruction of money. For PY to go down while Y stays constant, P must go down, which means that 1/P, the value of money, goes up.

------

Note that the implication of this velocity-based analysis is that, if a miser with tons of money in bank accounts that he'll never use happens to one day withdraw some of that money and destroy it, there will be no effect on the value of money. This is correct; that money had already been effectively destroyed when the miser committed to not spending it.

(Over a much longer term, the effect of destruction would be visible when the miser's heirs inherited a smaller amount of money than otherwise and consequently spent less.)

Re: Physical cash is dying–and you don't need to be a conspiracist to worry

#188

Not using cash means someone gets a cut of a processing fee. Every time, with almost no exceptions. I’m not down to have rent seeking companies taking a slice of my hard earned money just so I don’t have to manage a few pieces of paper. You’re generally paying 3-4 percent of every transaction now, as that’s pretty standard for debit cards on businesses, and it doesn’t matter if it’s charged to the card holder or the…

> I’m not down to have rent seeking companies taking a slice of my hard earned money just so I don’t have to manage a few pieces of paper. You’re pretending as if there weren’t any costs associated with handling cash. There’s almost always a handling fee if you want to put the cash into an account, which you will need to do if you want to pay people that are somewhere else than you are. If you have larger quantities…

> There’s almost always a handling fee

Citation needed. I've been depositing cash for years, with multiple banks, and nobody has ever charged a "handling fee".

> safe transportation of the funds

Yes, a lot of people have this irrational reaction to carrying large amounts of cash, as if your unremarkable Toyota miraculously sports a giant "BRINKS" logo every time you carry cash, attracting the attention of would-be criminals everywhere. I assume you believe that thieves and pickpockets are regularly carrying millimeter-wave scanners to see what's in your pockets, briefcases, backpacks, etc?

Re: Physical cash is dying–and you don't need to be a conspiracist to worry

#189

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> high social trust. With the rise of ML, and people salivating over the data inherent in currency flow, I suspect that trust may soon go the way of the dodo. In the US, anything that makes money tends to get helped along. Regulators look the other way (until some knucklehead starts stealing from rich people), and even the lowest-level employees become "stans" of their bosses. I am a believer in the promise of social…

it is dangerous to assume that the US culture is the default culture. social trust is not a new thing in Scandinavia. it has been a part of the society for centuries. Denmark is arguably also more capitalistic than the US. the median wealth is almost double that of the US. hence the Danish system, despite some of the world's highest taxes, easier allow people to build wealth.

I understand. I was raised overseas, and am intimately familiar with non-US cultures.

I love Scandinavian socialism, but I have also watched as US-style capitalism has permeated even the most resistant societies.

The Internet, and the platform it provides for social contagion, are probably responsible for that.

Additionally, it is easy to have socialism, with a relatively heterogeneous population, but nations like the US and, increasingly, many other nations, make it a lot more difficult.

Re: Physical cash is dying–and you don't need to be a conspiracist to worry

#190

Not using cash means someone gets a cut of a processing fee. Every time, with almost no exceptions. I’m not down to have rent seeking companies taking a slice of my hard earned money just so I don’t have to manage a few pieces of paper. You’re generally paying 3-4 percent of every transaction now, as that’s pretty standard for debit cards on businesses, and it doesn’t matter if it’s charged to the card holder or the…

The reality is most business prefer the 3% fee because the cost of Cash processing is higher when you factor in Bank Fees, Security, Accounting, Theft, and other factors.

[1] https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20180130005244/en/New...

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