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A man who invented VR goggles 50 years too soon (2016)

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Re: A man who invented VR goggles 50 years too soon (2016)

#91
post #27
post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Even in mid-late nineties I would have never paid for a cell phone personally (too expensive), but they were becoming cheap enough that it was common for employers to see the value in making sure you had one.

Most kids had cell phones in mid late nineties where I lived, the phones themselves were cheap but using them were not very cheap, but giving a kid a phone so you could call them if the parent needed seemed popular.

There was maybe a 5-10 year period when personal cell phones were something you had for emergencies or when you were meeting up with people but didn't casually use for extended conversations much less to replace a landline.

Re: A man who invented VR goggles 50 years too soon (2016)

#92
post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You really underestimate timing here, and I feel overestimate how great the first iPhone and iPad was. They didn't take technical genius. All the elements preceded them. Most of the design preceded thrm. They didn't engineer anything particularly new. The only previously unavailable component they got made was better glass, which was great, but not where the deal breaker was for previous iterations. I find it funny w…

> They didn't take technical genius. All the elements preceded them. Most of the design preceded thrm. They didn't engineer anything particularly new. That sounds quite mediocre! Except where were all these non-geniuses with their just-as-not-new phones putting Microsoft, Palm, Sony, Blackberry, etc., to shame? Most of that was crap in comparison. And despite many (many) revamped product lines (Microsoft!) trying to…

> That sounds quite mediocre! Except where were all these non-geniuses with their just-as-not-new phones putting Microsoft, Palm, Sony, Blackberry, etc., to shame? Most of that was crap in comparison. And despite many (many) revamped product lines (Microsoft!) trying to take smart phones mainstream. (I give the Blackberry kudos for being very good at what it did.)

They had built phones with the same kind of interfaces 4-5 years earlier, and then moved on because the hardware wasn't ready then. You keep comparing to products that appears because of the market rejection of the first tablet/touch device fad, and use that to argue that it was timing, while ignoring the many devices that were conceptually far more similar a few years before that.

As I've said: Apple's genius was paying attention to when the hardware was ready for another try at the "pure" devices that "everyone" else tried too early.

And bringing up the Blackberry is comical to me, because even at the time it was an aberrant offshoot used by people who scoffed at the touch-focused devices, and not a relevant comparison. They were an entirely different device category.

> You are vastly underestimating the value and work of getting lots of details right (so many, and so "unimportant", most people never notice what holds products back), and finding a way to fit it all together in a way that works well.

No, I'm aware of the products that were actually built over the preceding years and which design decisions were driven purely by what was actually available vs. were intentional choices, and so don't give credit for simply having better, cheaper components available. Apple does great at polishing things, and they deserve credit for that, but what the 1st gen iPhone and iPad brought was not that.

The also did great at timing it right, and I do give them a lot of credit for that, and that is important - a whole lot of smart people got that very wrong, and frankly it's a lesson the tech industry needs hammered in over and over because we have a tendency to rush ahead without asking ourselves if the market is ready and/or if a product is wrong or just not right yet, and ending up making stupid decisions. I'm not trying to downplay what Apple achieved. I'm trying to drive home the point that Apple achieved this by vastly outperforming their competitors in deploying their resources in a more efficient way, by not rushing into something that was doomed (in the 2000 timeframe). That was, and is, impressive.

"Just" building a smartphone and tablet at the level of the original iPhone and iPad was good, but nothing special, nor visionary in terms of engineering. They had one or two features that were unusual (gestures was), and lots of missing features, and great industrial design, but very little technical innovation. Overall they did amazingly well in hitting the right balance for a first version, and that outweighs pushing the envelope on the technical side by a huge margin - it's irrelevant if you make technical advances if your company folds and/or the product disappears of the face of the earth.

> You know what is true of every breakthrough theorem in math? If you break down the proof, its just made of steps of already known relations. It wouldn't be a proof if it was otherwise. Nothing new.

Great, but this again implies that there were lots of elements that were put together in some completely novel way, but there were not, and suggesting there were is just pure revisionism that just shows that you're unaware of what that field was like in those years.

Nobody went around wondering if capacitative touch would be better or not - we all knew it was. Nobody wanted as little RAM or flash as in the early devices. Nobody wanted big bezels. Nobody wanted slow CPUs. Nobody wanted low capacity batteries. All of the steps to go from ~2000-era tablets and full-screen touch devices to an iPhone and iPad level device were cost-reduction and component improvements.

Heck, the original iPhone didn't even have installable apps, which was a huge step back compared to earlier devices that was only rectified later when Apple realised they'd made a huge misstep (remember Steve Jobs pushing web apps as sufficient? I do).

Apple got the timing right, and then they did an amazing job at iterating to fix the many defects in their original product before their competitors realised they'd gotten the timing right. Getting the timing right was genius. That's impressive enough that there's no reason to push unsupportable ideas about things that weren't new. Most of the things I've mentioned weren't new when I worked on them in 2000 either - we invented next to nothing, and we knew we didn't.

Re: A man who invented VR goggles 50 years too soon (2016)

#93
post #88
post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I worked on devices that didn't need styluses 6 years before the iPhone. They were not unusual at all. What kept people using styluses was that resistive touch is shit and imprecise, and on small screens they were awful to use. So this boils down to capacitative touch of sufficient quality having gotten cheap enough.

Did they offer finger scrolling? PalmOS basically didn't, just because the scroll bars were too thin.

Not gestures, but pulling on scroll bars was certainly a thing. Gestures were definitely an improvement, but pretty much not something you want to try on a bad quality small resistive screen unless you want the user to throw their device at the wall in frustration.

The funny thing is with number of those kinds of early devices I had for use or testing, they all seemed awesome at the time, but I know I probably shouldn't ever pick any of them up again, because I know logically that the experience would be awful given what I know about the tech and compared to current iterations of the same tech... It's funny how memory works.

I still wish for the reality where having a pure-unadulterated Linux installation on a tablet that early remained a thing, though - the current locked-down tablet ecosystems in many ways (but not the hardware!) still feels like a big step back in many respects.

Re: A man who invented VR goggles 50 years too soon (2016)

#94
post #27
post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Even in mid-late nineties I would have never paid for a cell phone personally (too expensive), but they were becoming cheap enough that it was common for employers to see the value in making sure you had one.

Most kids had cell phones in mid late nineties where I lived, the phones themselves were cheap but using them were not very cheap, but giving a kid a phone so you could call them if the parent needed seemed popular.

Definitely early adopter neighborhood though

Re: A man who invented VR goggles 50 years too soon (2016)

#95
post #62

The problem is that the guy didn't "invent" anything, more like had a farfetched idea and left all "the practical details" to others to work out. That's like saying that Meliès invented space travel - he too had the idea of flying to the Moon in a gun projectile ... It was only non-functioning mockup, at best, because the vacuum tube electronics of the era was simply incapable of producing a wireless device with thos…

That seems a little unfair to me. In many cases an original idea, regardless of ability to execute, is priceless. I agree that execution is everything in terms of winning, though.

I think it depends on the nature of the idea. Some are so original that just the idea independent of the execution are worthy of note (famous conjectures in mathematics come to mind).

Some seem so obvious that it seems likely that many people dreamt of them at the same time. Hard to tell in this case.

Re: A man who invented VR goggles 50 years too soon (2016)

#96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That seems a little unfair to me. In many cases an original idea, regardless of ability to execute, is priceless. I agree that execution is everything in terms of winning, though.

Ideas are a dime a dozen, anything that can be thought of eventually will be. It's no coincidence that new discoveries tend to get made by multiple people on different sides of the planet at roughly the same time once they have access to the same technological starting point to work from. Leibniz and Newton, Wright Brothers and Dumont, Bell Labs and Westinghouse, etc. This is why patents are harmful imo (without even…

How do you reconcile a patentless world with things that require massive R&D budgets? Like it or not many industries require very complicated ideas that are extremely expensive and labor intensive to generate the idea.

For example, new pharmaceuticals (of which there are very few being discovered) take over 10 years of R&D and cost multiple billions of dollars to whittle down ~10,000 candidates into a single government approved drug.

But once that single drug has been identified from the haystack of failing options, and rigorously tested, and trialed in humans for years, recreating that molecule is quite trivial. The actual production is very cheap compared to the fact it took thousands of people billions of dollars over 10+ years to get there.

This is just one example of how ideas can be very expensive to develop, but very cheap to copy.

Re: A man who invented VR goggles 50 years too soon (2016)

#97
post #27
post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Even in mid-late nineties I would have never paid for a cell phone personally (too expensive), but they were becoming cheap enough that it was common for employers to see the value in making sure you had one.

Most kids had cell phones in mid late nineties where I lived, the phones themselves were cheap but using them were not very cheap, but giving a kid a phone so you could call them if the parent needed seemed popular.

1) Kids? You mean only high schoolers, right? I lived that time period and can't imagine any kid who didn't drive having a cell phone, then.

2) I graduated in the early '00s and I think maybe 5% of the kids in my graduating class, at most, had a cell phone by graduation. Mostly some shitty Nokia with a phone-only or low-texting plan (texting was still crazy-expensive), mainly for contacting parents about after school activity stuff.

Middle-class-spectrum car-dependent exurb. Maybe it was different for, like, kids growing up in Brooklyn or something? Or rich kids, perhaps.

A more-common perk for children of free-spending parents, in my town, was still a second POTS line, though I do think that was starting to tip the other way just at the end.

Re: A man who invented VR goggles 50 years too soon (2016)

#98
post #62

The problem is that the guy didn't "invent" anything, more like had a farfetched idea and left all "the practical details" to others to work out. That's like saying that Meliès invented space travel - he too had the idea of flying to the Moon in a gun projectile ... It was only non-functioning mockup, at best, because the vacuum tube electronics of the era was simply incapable of producing a wireless device with thos…

That seems a little unfair to me. In many cases an original idea, regardless of ability to execute, is priceless. I agree that execution is everything in terms of winning, though.

I just don’t see value in original ideas. IMO ideas are statistical outcomes that are bound to cowme to muktiple people, typically with ever-increasing audiences and likelihood as the world advances.

So there may some some first mover advantage in being lucky enough to be (among) the first to have an idea, but first mover itself is of debatable advantage.

Help me see why you think an original idea can be priceless?

Re: A man who invented VR goggles 50 years too soon (2016)

#99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That seems a little unfair to me. In many cases an original idea, regardless of ability to execute, is priceless. I agree that execution is everything in terms of winning, though.

Ideas are a dime a dozen, anything that can be thought of eventually will be. It's no coincidence that new discoveries tend to get made by multiple people on different sides of the planet at roughly the same time once they have access to the same technological starting point to work from. Leibniz and Newton, Wright Brothers and Dumont, Bell Labs and Westinghouse, etc. This is why patents are harmful imo (without even…

I think patents are better overall for society as it encourages rapid disclosure of new ideas and applications, instead of people withholding information because they are worried of being copied after they go to market.

As an aside, there are plenty of inventions that were developed or rediscovered long after they were technologically feasible. The whole Middle Ages occurred because we forgot how to do things they knew how to do in ancient times and never documented, like how to use concrete. Other things were just never thought of until much later, like the analog phonograph could have been created in ancient times but no one tried running a pin over a grooved surface.

Re: A man who invented VR goggles 50 years too soon (2016)

#100
post #91
post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most kids had cell phones in mid late nineties where I lived, the phones themselves were cheap but using them were not very cheap, but giving a kid a phone so you could call them if the parent needed seemed popular.

There was maybe a 5-10 year period when personal cell phones were something you had for emergencies or when you were meeting up with people but didn't casually use for extended conversations much less to replace a landline.

For one thing, they sounded like absolute shit even compared to digital landlines.
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