Earlier quoted context omitted.
What does this even mean? (not sarcastic)
I worked at (American drink company in Japan) previously and saw what the poster may be referring to. Management Consulting sells ideas, many of them silly or not important that are marketed and packaged as era-defining. A manager who implements #FASHIONABLE_IDEA can look forward to upwards mobility, while boring, realistic, business-focused ideas from people in the trenches usually get ignored (unless you want a lat…
Intel's Humbling
401–410 of 414 posts
Re: Intel's Humbling
#402Honestly I think the real deathwatch started during spectre/meltdown. Intel had a real choice. They could own the issue, patch and use it as a chance to retool a largely broken architecture when corporate money was still 0% interest or negative interest. They didnt. Every press conference downplayed deflected and denied the performance issues, every patch to the Linux kernel was "disabled by default." They lied throu…
I think you’re vastly overestimating how much Wall Street cares about technical issues like this. Spectre/meltdown barely registers on the radar of issues that Intel has. People are still mostly buying Intel CPUs in laptops, desktops, and servers, and the N100 seems to be gaining ground in the Raspberry Pi space. Maybe it gave an opening for AMD in some markets, but Intel really hasn’t seen some huge tarnished reputa…
Re: Intel's Humbling
#403I'm kind of bullish on Intel right now. They've moved up so many process nodes so quickly and have made some earnest headway in being an actual fab. Let's ignore the elephant in the room which is taiwan and it's sovereignty, and only focus on the core r&d. Intel flopped so hard on process nodes for 4 years up until Gelsinger took the reigns... it was honestly unprecedented levels of R&D failure. What happened over th…
For the rebound you're theory is probably more true. It has been better for AMD obviously, but INTC has almost doubled in value since its $25 low, which is not slouching by any means.
I can agree on being bullish long term (I had short puts exercise back in the $20s). Like a lot of tech, INTC has more money than God and they'll get it right eventually.
Re: Intel's Humbling
#404i worked at intel between 97 and 07. MFG was absolute king. Keeping that production line stable and active was the priority that eclipsed all. i was a process engineer, and to change a gas flow rate on some part of the process by a little bit, i'd have to design an experiment, collect data for months, work with various upstream/downstream teams, and write a change control proposal that would exceed a hundred pages of…
I have similar stories where adding a standard wafer-rinse step took a year of testing, documenting, pitching to customers, etc.
Re: Intel's Humbling
#405Earlier quoted context omitted.
It's grossly overstated because TW doesn't have the type or numbers of ordnance to structurally damage gravity dam the size of three gorges. And realistically they won't because the amount of conventional munitions needed is staggering, more than TW can muster in retaliatory strike, unless it's a coordinated preemptive strike, which TW won't since it's suicide by war crime. The entire three gorges meme originated fro…
i seem to have been throughly wrong about the three gorges dam. But i think you also have misunderstood the scenario i was imagining. I was actually entirely unaware of there being a meme about the thing collapsing on its own. I was strictly referring to its viability as a strategic target for infrastructure terrorism if that’s the term to use here. I was imagining a scenario where the US is going to town in support…
I think you're talking about US, willing to escalate to mainland attack, specifically strategic targets that support war economy. Nuclear plants being sensation overblown since it's basically jsut another piece of hard power infra. Which BTW very few US strategic planners have actually indicated willingness to do, but also inevitably must since PRC can prosecute TW (and SKR/JP) war completely from mainland.
To which IMO, most also vastly underestimate the effort needed. Reality right now is, the amount of fire power US can surge in region (naval strikes, aviation regional runway access, CONUS long range bombers), is very limited relative to number of PRC strategic targets, and in contested space theatre. To be blunt, PRC mainland is significantly larger (more targets) and capable (less ability to hit targets) than any previous US adversaries. By 1-2 order of magnitude. Most don't grasp this.
For reference the US+co air campaign in Gulf War, where US+co surged 6 carriers and had extremely geographically favourable regional basing to supplement land aviation, conducted ~100,000 sorties in 40 days, on Iraq, a country 20x smaller (realistically 10x since PRC targets are mostly east half of country), with 80x less people (even less aggregate productive/manufacturing ability). And that campian was essentially UNCONTESTED, since IIRC the french who designed Iraqi anti-air network sold out entire system to west. And it was efficient since regional base (CENTAF Saudi) was close enough that US fighters can sortie with minimal refueling.
None of that is true in PRC campaign, distances involved and limited basing US has access to (at least relative to PRC access to their entire military infra), means US unlikely to forward deploy as much aviation, and sorties need midair tanking (possibly multiple times) to deliver weapons, assuming those fighters aren't shot down/destroyed on the ground in the first place. Same with navy - US can throw in all but the effects won't scale proprotionally since US can't actually sustain/replenish surge for more than a few weeks, assuming support assets don't get destroyed themselves when they restock in port. So to summarize PRC is 10x-20x bigger than Iraq, 80x+ more targets, in contested region where PRC has home team advantage and where US has visiting team disadvantage (with regional partners factored in), in manner that US might not even be able to sustain forward posture for more than a few weeks (vs 5 weeks of initial Gulf War campaign). If you just naively scale Iraq air campaign to PRC, it would take US 5+ years to degrade PRC same way it did Iraq.
That's the scale of problem. Granted it's very hand wavy and napkin mathy but it illustrates how gargantuan PRC actually is and how big the challenges has become relative to US military capability that is calibrated to stomp small/medium sized countries. IMO why planners last 10 years have focused on SLOC/energy blockade, because land war in Asian is stupid. But even blockade talk is going to quiet down (and IMO US supporting TW militarily) in a few years when PRC roles out CONUS conventional strike with ICBMs to mutual conventional homeland vunerability. But that's another matter entirely, the TLDR is US game theory on TW going to be very different when they realize 200-300 oil refineries and lng plants and a few F35 assembly plants can significantly degrade CONUS and NATO. The other part of hitting a 100s of smaller targets vs 1 large target that triggers nuclear retaliation is there's more rungs/opportunity to deescalate, which is probably top priority in actual US/PRC war.
Re: Intel's Humbling
#406>>> Notice what is happening here: TSMC, unlike its historical pattern, is not keeping (all of its) 5nm capacity to make low-cost high-margin chips in fully-depreciated fabs; rather, it is going to repurpose some amount of equipment — probably as much as it can manage — to 3nm, which will allow it to expand its capacity without a commensurate increase in capital costs. This will both increase the profitability of 3nm…
Of course we don't need to know everything, but in terms of news, maybe we could reference key technologies in use that have the largest effect on performance targets and downstream process modification.
Re: Intel's Humbling
#407Earlier quoted context omitted.
There are a few areas where they are under pressure: - The wintel monopoly is losing its relevance now that ARM chips are creeping into the windows laptop market and now that Apple has proven that ARM is fantastic for low power & high performance solutions. Nobody cares about x86 that much any more. It's lost its shine as the "fastest" thing available. - AI & GPU market is where the action is and Intel is a no-show f…
> Apple has proven that ARM is fantastic for low power & high performance solutions Apple has proven that Apple Silicon on TSMC's best process is great. There are no other ARM vendors competing well in that space yet. SOCs that need to compete with Intel and AMD on the same nodes are still stuck at the low margin end of the market.
Re: Intel's Humbling
#408Earlier quoted context omitted.
It sounds like Apple just wanted to vertically integrate, to me. Which is a fine reason to do something. But doesn't require misrepresenting competitors or constructing a past which never happened. You do you though.
Intel laptops cant even sleep anymore. I have a 11th Gen Intel space heater that invalidates every claim you've made in this thread. People aren't stupid, we've owned these shitty Intel products for years, you're fooling nobody.
Re: Intel's Humbling
#409Earlier quoted context omitted.
To be fair, they jump on that particular trend because the banks will punish them if they don't. They have tens of trillions in assets under their management and they make sure that capital won't flow to companies that refuse their agenda. In effect the banks dictate the direction society moves towards. And people say it's a conspiracy theory. > ESG investment funds in the United States saw capital inflows of $3.1 bi…
This is utterly incorrect. The amount of funds with an environmental or social mandate is trivial; and nearly all of those mandates require essentially nothing. It is sad how easy it is to dupe mediocre men into believing thinking they are victims, when in fact they are simply whiny little snowflake losers.
Re: Intel's Humbling
#410Earlier quoted context omitted.
> TSMC 5-nm process of almost 4 years ago N5 is interesting because it's the first process fully designed around EUV and because it was pretty much exclusive to Apple for almost two years. It launched in Apple products in late 2020, then crickets until about late 2022 (Zen 4, RTX 4000, Radeon 7000). Launches of the other vendors were still on N7 or older processes in 2020 - RTX 3000 for example used some 10nm Samsung…
Exactly. N5 is sort of an outlier, it's a process where a bunch of technology bets and manufacturing investment all came together to produce a big leap in competitive positioning. It's the same kind of thing we saw with Intel 22nm[1], where Ivy Bridge was just wiping the floor with the rest of the industry. Improvements since have been modest, to the extent that N3 is only barely any better (c.f. the Apple M3 is... s…