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Birth rates are falling in the Nordics. Are natalist policies no longer enough?

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Re: Birth rates are falling in the Nordics. Are natalist policies no longer enough?

#131

Post by kwere »

maxglute wrote: post #103
nickd2001 wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I was thinking of countries more like India and Nigeria, both of which, despite becoming richer and having lower fertility themselves, have populations projected to exceed China's, and both projected to become too hot to live in without big problems. Its not literally an "endless" supply, but its easily enough to cover gaps in the west. If fertility fell 75% in the west, could probably fill it with people from those…

I think endless supply of "brown" people is going to become limited supply of brow immigration because voices in rich western countries are not going to see that as win-win.

human capitals in these countries is not distribuited the same as in the western world or even most of asia. Thats reality under the luxury belief that anybody can be "integrated"

Re: Birth rates are falling in the Nordics. Are natalist policies no longer enough?

#132

Post by somenameforme »

anovikov wrote: post #124
somenameforme wrote: post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Russia's not a great example to look at. They're one of the only 'Western' countries that's historically actually maintained a healthy fertility rate. The big catch in their numbers is that in the 90s the country turned into a near anarchic hellhole. But they managed to pull out of that and have had a growing fertility rate since 1998, which has been met with an ever widening array of pro-natal incentives, and a gene…

Macrotrends is a spam site which is full of completely erroneous data on almost every topic. Just look up their China demographic data - it's just laughable. Russia has lower fertility rate than EU average, at 1.50 vs 1.53. And a higher and faster growing share of Muslim population than Europe. Overall, death rate is about 1.37x more than birth rate in Russia (999.14 vs 728.02 per 100K in first 10 months of 2023 - li…

I'm not sure of their source, but you get the exact same figures on Statista. [1] Somebody who has an account should be able to get the source from that site, which I'm quite curious of. I was initially ready to dismiss you as a nutter, but I do agree actually - even Russian official numbers give lower rates, so far as I can tell.

That said, your analysis is a bit misleading. Because while deaths/births are ultimately what fertility comes down to, it's a long lagging result. Taken to extremes, if a country of 20 year olds had a rapid extinction level fertility rate of 0.1, births would still far outpace deaths for many decades. Vice versa if there was a country made up of mostly of the elderly and then a small number of high fertility youth, deaths would outpace births for many years - in spite of [now] healthy demographics.

So fertility is what matters. And no, I don't think Russia is the epitome of what we should do. They have endless problems including alcohol abuse, a hugely imbalanced sex ratio, high suicide rates, and more. But I do think they're working to solve their problems in a way that is likely to create a better and more sustainable future for themselves. By contrast much of the Western world today seems content to behave in a generally myopic and reactionary fashion. Even in this very thread you see some people positive about lower fertility rates because climate. It's like seeing your house burning down and being happy that you won't have to fix that leaking sink anymore.

[1] - https://www.statista.com/statistics/1033851/fertility-rate-r...

Re: Birth rates are falling in the Nordics. Are natalist policies no longer enough?

#133

Post by somenameforme »

thriftwy wrote: post #112
somenameforme wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One of the big issues in housing is ultra urbanization though, where everybody wants to move into a tiny handful of locations. This just drives housing costs upwards basically without end. This graph of Stockholm's population [1] is just completely bonkers. But beyond this it also creates environments that aren't especially good for raising a family in, at least in general. [1] - https://worldpopulationreview.com/wor…

You can just build . Perhaps the "never lived lavishly, no reason to begin" attitude would have hepled. [1] https://yandex.ru/images/search?text=мурино [2] https://yandex.ru/images/search?text=кудрово [3] https://yandex.ru/images/search?text=парнас [4] https://yandex.ru/images/search?text=филатов%20луг

I completely agree with the attitude, but not necessarily the implementation. Would you want to live in any of those places? Let alone raise a family in one? In the second link, I think the difference between the presumably idealized/proposed [1] version of one of these areas, and what it inevitably turns into [2] demonstrates the issue.

So it would probably be reasonably affordable, but only because you'd make it less desirable to live there. Then enter the general problem of people's complete disregard for other's property in many places in the Western world and those places would become highly unpleasant, if not unsafe, quite quickly - especially if they were very affordable. There's a reason "the projects", everywhere, end up the way they do.

[1] - https://avatars.mds.yandex.net/i?id=e67240f3f995f865b864bee1...

[2] - https://avatars.mds.yandex.net/i?id=05678345cd91e9579bd7e719...

Re: Birth rates are falling in the Nordics. Are natalist policies no longer enough?

#134

Post by shadowgovt »

kwere wrote: post #129
shadowgovt wrote: post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Alternatively, we just don't worry about it. We are a planet trying to find the resources for eight billion human beings and we already know the backbone of our global agriculture solution is an unsustainable fossil-fuel-based phosphate cycle. People choosing to not have replacement-number of children is one of the more humane ways to balance the cold equations for subsequent generations.

malthusian bollocks, earth can sustain tens of billions of human beings, the downside that 10 acre mcmansions and huge pickup trucks will be unaffordable for the "middle class". We produce already enough resources, we waste them on allocation

How do we handle the fundamental need for fossil fuel to create the phosphates that underpin modern agriculture?

Re: Birth rates are falling in the Nordics. Are natalist policies no longer enough?

#135

Post by hahamaster »

toomuchtodo wrote: post #17
stonemetal12 wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But what is driving the housing prices up in the Nordics? Population decline would suggest weakening demand. The EU is famous for long lasting housing so lack of new inventory shouldn't hit supply side that hard.

Population decline lags affordable property shortages (see Japan [1], where property price declines are following after rural population declines). The results of fertility decisions take years, or even decades, to see (although total fertility rate and annual births is a lower lag indicator). For example, declining school enrollment in the US is from fertility decisions made half a decade ago [2], because that's abo…

If you're waiting for your life to be stable enough to have children, most likely you're never going to have them.

As years go by, life becomes more complicated, not less. With or without children.

Having children also involves sacrifice, improvisation, unpredictability, suffering... and lots of people are apparently allergic to all of those things.

Re: Birth rates are falling in the Nordics. Are natalist policies no longer enough?

#136

Post by maxglute »

nickd2001 wrote: post #127
maxglute wrote: post #103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think endless supply of "brown" people is going to become limited supply of brow immigration because voices in rich western countries are not going to see that as win-win.

Do you foresee a massive upsurge in racism then? I hope not, and that over time people will become more sensible about seeing those who look different from them as simply "other people". In the UK, some of the most racist people are dying out and being replaced with people who are used to growing up in a multi-ethnic society and having friends that look different. There was some hoo-hah a couple years back when polit…

I'm in Canada and pro-immigration young demographics liberal leaning are starting to signal against immigration - too much inflows driving costs up (housing which I think UK understands). PoC right-wing politicians and if UK constituent anything like Canadian conservatives, it reflects lots of immigrant PoCs have, fuck you, got mine, attitude towards new immigrants. They didn't claw their way to the west from global south, to "suffer" mass inflow from global south diminishing perks of the west. They like their priveledge as well. Maybe we can sort out cost of living crisis that reduces immigration friction, but I suspect not, because the fuck you, got mine interests runs deep.

Re: Birth rates are falling in the Nordics. Are natalist policies no longer enough?

#137

Post by maxglute »

kwere wrote: post #131
maxglute wrote: post #103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think endless supply of "brown" people is going to become limited supply of brow immigration because voices in rich western countries are not going to see that as win-win.

human capitals in these countries is not distribuited the same as in the western world or even most of asia. Thats reality under the luxury belief that anybody can be "integrated"

Yeah, there's a upper bound to skilled labour production in developing countries unless they massively improve education, but that's also an enviroment correlated with better development and less outflows. But there's plenty of bodies, IMO not everyone has luxury to prioritize skilled immigration like Anglo countries (who themselves lose cream to US), and even Anglo countries might eventually have to settle for less skilled if what is needed is just bodies to keep economy growing. Even if productiity return is subpar.

Re: Birth rates are falling in the Nordics. Are natalist policies no longer enough?

#138

Post by TulliusCicero »

marcosdumay wrote: post #46
TulliusCicero wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A few common counterarguments and my responses: Kids don't have to be super expensive! This is true, but it's also true for most people they are. To make them not expensive, you have to avoid a lot of things that most people consider a normal, middle-class part of a regular lifestyle or a middle-class way of raising children. I won't dispute that there are probably smarter low-cost ways to raise kids, but we're talki…

> To make them not expensive, you have to avoid a lot of things that most people consider a normal, middle-class part of a regular lifestyle or a middle-class way of raising children. Well, you can make the middle-class lifestyle affordable. It's not Disney vacations that make people give-up on childbirth. It's housing and schooling.

I 100% agree. Though even if those things were more reasonably priced, they would still be more expensive for people with kids. You do need some more space with kids to maintain the same standard of living, and most people prefer easier access to green space (yard and/or close by parks) when they have kids.

That's why huge subsidies to reach financial parity are probably necessary.

Re: Birth rates are falling in the Nordics. Are natalist policies no longer enough?

#139

Post by anovikov »

somenameforme wrote: post #132
anovikov wrote: post #124

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Macrotrends is a spam site which is full of completely erroneous data on almost every topic. Just look up their China demographic data - it's just laughable. Russia has lower fertility rate than EU average, at 1.50 vs 1.53. And a higher and faster growing share of Muslim population than Europe. Overall, death rate is about 1.37x more than birth rate in Russia (999.14 vs 728.02 per 100K in first 10 months of 2023 - li…

I'm not sure of their source, but you get the exact same figures on Statista. [1] Somebody who has an account should be able to get the source from that site, which I'm quite curious of. I was initially ready to dismiss you as a nutter, but I do agree actually - even Russian official numbers give lower rates, so far as I can tell. That said, your analysis is a bit misleading. Because while deaths/births are ultimatel…

That contradicts official statistics from Russia itself though. They claim 1.42 for 2022, not 1.82.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_federal_subjects_of_Ru... (the data is copied from https://fedstat.ru/indicator/31517# - Federal Statistics service of Russia - but it's closed for access from outside).

1.42 is worse than in 20 out of 27 EU countries and worse than in EU overall (1.53). With much lower readings in Russian-populated regions, i.e. it hangs on Muslims. Of which Russia has more and they grow faster than in any EU country. Some almost purely Russian-population regions rival South Korea in low fertility with Not sure why you are trying to find something good where it simply isn't.

Re: Birth rates are falling in the Nordics. Are natalist policies no longer enough?

#140

Post by somenameforme »

anovikov wrote: post #139
somenameforme wrote: post #132

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not sure of their source, but you get the exact same figures on Statista. [1] Somebody who has an account should be able to get the source from that site, which I'm quite curious of. I was initially ready to dismiss you as a nutter, but I do agree actually - even Russian official numbers give lower rates, so far as I can tell. That said, your analysis is a bit misleading. Because while deaths/births are ultimatel…

That contradicts official statistics from Russia itself though. They claim 1.42 for 2022, not 1.82. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_federal_subjects_of_Ru... (the data is copied from https://fedstat.ru/indicator/31517# - Federal Statistics service of Russia - but it's closed for access from outside). 1.42 is worse than in 20 out of 27 EU countries and worse than in EU overall (1.53). With much lower readings in…

Your reading comprehension could use a bit of a tune up.
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