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Intel's Humbling

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Re: Intel's Humbling

#321
post #303

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The Meteor Lake CPU [...] has obvious difficulties in reaching high clock frequencies, Not sure where that's coming from? The released parts are mobile chips, and the fastest is a 45W TDP unit that boosts at 5.1GHz. AMD's fastest part in that power range (8945HS) reaches 5.2GHz. Apple seems to do just fine at 4GHz with the M3. I'm guessing you're looking at some numbers for socketed chips with liquid cooling?

The 5.1 GHz Intel Core Ultra 9 processor 185H is the replacement for the 5.4 GHz Intel Core i9-13900H Processor of previous year. Both are 45-W CPUs with big integrated GPUs and almost identical features in the SoC. No liquid cooling needed for either of them, just standard 14" or 15" laptops without special cooling, or NUC-like small cases, because they do not need discrete GPUs. Both CPUs have the same microarchite…

That's getting a little convoluted. I still don't see how this substantiates that Intel 4 "has obvious difficulties in reaching high clock frequencies".

Intel is shipping competitive clock frequencies on Intel 4 vs. everyone in the industry except the most recent generation of their own RPL parts, which have the advantage of being being up-bins of an evolved and mature process.

That sounds pretty normal to me? New processes launch with conservative binning and as yields improve you can start selling the outliers in volume. And... it seems like you agree, by pointing out that this happened with Intel 7 and 14nm too.

Basically: this sounds like you're trying to spin routine manufacturing practices as a technical problem. Intel bins differently than AMD (and especially Apple, who barely distinguish parts at all), and they always have.

Re: Intel's Humbling

#322

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wouldn't call them shenanigans. At least Intel publishes numbers (Apple does not). There are simply a lot of power states Intel CPUs are capable of engaging, and many configuration options about when and under what circumstances to do so. Much of this is configurable by the OEM and is not hard-set by Intel, or even under Intel's control after the processor leaves the fab. The Anandtech article seems to indicate tha…

So you’re aware of this Intel TDP chicanery but trying to say with a straight face that these chips achieve similar performance and efficiency to the M1. I think that’s pretty disingenuous.

Again, there's not chicanery going on. You asked for examples of chips Intel produced which were suitable for laptops as you claimed they produced none. I provided one.

Re: Intel's Humbling

#323

I'm kind of bullish on Intel right now. They've moved up so many process nodes so quickly and have made some earnest headway in being an actual fab. Let's ignore the elephant in the room which is taiwan and it's sovereignty, and only focus on the core r&d. Intel flopped so hard on process nodes for 4 years up until Gelsinger took the reigns... it was honestly unprecedented levels of R&D failure. What happened over th…

The biggest Intel's problem is that a lot of good people left over the previous years of shitty management. Pouring money into R&D certainly helps but with wrong people in key positions the efficiency of the investments will be low.

Re: Intel's Humbling

#324

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don’t think Xi is as independent as you believe, but that’s a matter of personal opinion. I just don’t think it’s very likely for just about any leader putting themselves into the position you are describing. This is a reoccurring narrative in western media, and I’m not here to defend dictators, but i feel like reality is less black and white than that. Many of the "crazed leaders" we are told are acting irrational…

Also Saddam was told by the US ambassador that the US has no opinion on Arab-Arab conflicts...

yup. there are more examples than i can muster up to write. One more gut-wrenching than the former. The US calling anyone irrational is pretty rich anyways. After all, invoking the use Brainwashing in war after war, instead of accepting the existence of differing beliefs isn’t the pinnacle of rationality either. Neither is kidnapping your own people in an attempt to build your own brand of LSD-based brainwashing. Neither is infiltrating civil rights movements, going so far as attempting to bully MLK into suicide. Neither is spending your people’s tax money on 638 foiled assassinations of Castro. Neither is committing false-flag genocides in Vietnam, or PSYOPing civilians into believing they are haunted by the souls of their relatives.

none of those claims are anything but proven, historical facts by the way.

Wanna lose your appetite? The leadership in charge of the described operations in Vietnam gleefully talked about their management genius. They implemented kīll quotas.

this list also is everything but exhaustive.

Re: Intel's Humbling

#325
post #119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Isn't that true for virtually EVERY big tech merger? Like, which ones have actually worked?

Mostly true, but there are exceptions: Apple does really well on its rare acquisitions, but they aren't very public as they get successfully absorbed. PA Semi, Intrinsity, more I can't remember. ATi and Xilinx have by all accounts worked out really well for AMD.

The iPod

Re: Intel's Humbling

#326

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Nope. Intel crushed them. The problem is that Intel has had a defensive strategy for a long time. Yes, they crushed many attempts to breach the x86 moat but failed completely and then gave up attempts to reach beyond that moat. Mobile, foundry, GPUs etc have all seen half-hearted or doomed attempts (plus some bizarre attempts to diversify - McAfee!). I think that, as Ben essentially says, they put too much faith in…

Part of the problem is Intel is addicted to huge margins. Maybe of the areas they have tried to enter are almost commodity products in comparison so it would take some strong leadership to convince everyone to back off those margins for the sake of diversification. They should have been worried about their process leadership for a long time. IIRC even the vaunted 14nm that they ended up living on for so long was pret…

100%! Also in a way reversing what Moore/Grove did when they abandoned commodity memories. Such a hard thing to do.

Re: Intel's Humbling

#327

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is a good chance for Intel to recover, but that remains to be proven. From their long pipeline of future CMOS manufacturing processes with which Intel hopes to close the performance gap between them and TSMC, for now there exists a single commercial product: Meteor Lake, which consists mostly of chips made by TSMC, with one single Intel 4 die, the CPU tile. The Meteor Lake CPU seems to have finally reached the…

> TSMC 5-nm process of almost 4 years ago N5 is interesting because it's the first process fully designed around EUV and because it was pretty much exclusive to Apple for almost two years. It launched in Apple products in late 2020, then crickets until about late 2022 (Zen 4, RTX 4000, Radeon 7000). Launches of the other vendors were still on N7 or older processes in 2020 - RTX 3000 for example used some 10nm Samsung…

Exactly. N5 is sort of an outlier, it's a process where a bunch of technology bets and manufacturing investment all came together to produce a big leap in competitive positioning. It's the same kind of thing we saw with Intel 22nm[1], where Ivy Bridge was just wiping the floor with the rest of the industry.

Improvements since have been modest, to the extent that N3 is only barely any better (c.f. the Apple M3 is... still a really great CPU, but not actually that much of an upgrade over the M2).

There's a hole for Intel to aim at now. We'll see.

[1] Also 32nm and 45nm, really. It's easy to forget now, but Intel strung together a just shocking number of dominant processes in the 00's.

Re: Intel's Humbling

#328
post #94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Intel's flaw was trying to push DUV to 10nm (otherwise known as Intel 7). Had Intel adopted the molten tin of EUV, the cycle of failure would have been curtailed. Hats off to SMIC for the DUV 7nm which they produced so quickly. They likely saw quite a bit of failed effort. And before we discount ARM, we should remember that Acorn produced a 32-bit CPU with a 25k transistor count. The 80386 was years later, with 275k…

N7, TSMC's competitor to Intel 7, does not use EUV either.

There are multiple versions of N7. The N7 and N7P are DUV while the N7+ is EUV.

Re: Intel's Humbling

#329

Earlier quoted context omitted.

i honestly don’t see what you are seeing in terms of taiwans future sovereignty. Of course, China would like to do something about Taiwan, especially now with their economy kind of in the dumps and a collapsing real estate bubble. But when you look at the facts of it all, there’s absolut ZERO chance chine can muster up what it takes to hold their own in such a conflict. Their military isn’t up to snuff and they are o…

> they are one broken dam away from a huge mass casualty event. Are there any dam-having countries for which this isn't the case?

none or VERY few are even remotely close to the impact a potential breach of the three gorges dam would have. [1] Seriously, it’s worth reading up on, it’s genuinely hard to overstate.

[1]: https://www.ispsw.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/718_Lin.pdf

"In this case, the Three Gorges Dam may become a military target. But if this happens, it would be devastating to China as 400 million people live downstream, as well as the majority of the PLA's reserve forces that are located midstream and downstream of the Yangtze River."

Re: Intel's Humbling

#330

I'm kind of bullish on Intel right now. They've moved up so many process nodes so quickly and have made some earnest headway in being an actual fab. Let's ignore the elephant in the room which is taiwan and it's sovereignty, and only focus on the core r&d. Intel flopped so hard on process nodes for 4 years up until Gelsinger took the reigns... it was honestly unprecedented levels of R&D failure. What happened over th…

This blog

https://semiaccurate.com/

has told the story for more than a decade that Intel has been getting high on its own supply and that the media has been uncritical of the stories it tells.

In particular I think when it comes to the data center they’ve forgotten their roots. They took over the data center in the 1990s because they were producing desktop PCs in such numbers they could afford to get way ahead of the likes of Sun Microsystems, HP, and SGI. Itanium failed out of ignorance and hubris but if they were true evil geniuses they couldn’t have made a better master plan to wipe out most of the competition for the x86 architecture.

Today they take the desktop for granted and make the false claim that their data center business is more significant (not what the financial numbers show.). It’s highly self-destructive because when they pander to Amazon, Amazon takes the money they save and spends it on developing Graviton. There is some prestige in making big machines for the national labs but it is an intellectual black hole because the last thing they want to do is educate anyone else on how to simulate hydrogen bombs in VR.

So we get the puzzle that most of the performance boost customers could be getting comes from SIMD instructions and other “accelerators” but Intel doesn’t make a real effort to get this technology working for anyone other than the Facebook and the national labs and, in particular, they drag their feet in getting it available on enough chips that it is is worth it for mainstream developers to use this technology.

A while back, IBM had this thing where they might ship you a mainframe with 50 cores and license you to use 30 and if you had a load surge you could call you up and they could turn on another 10 cores at a high price.

I was fooled when I heard this the first time and thought it was smart business but after years of thinking about how to deliver value to customers I realized it’s nothing more than “vice signaling”. It makes them look rapacious and avaricious but really somebody is paying for those 20 cores and if it is not the customer it is the shareholders. It’s not impossible that IBM and/or the customer winds up ahead in the situation but the fact is they paid to make those 20 cores and if those cores are sitting there doing nothing they’re making no value for anyone. If everything was tuned up perfectly they might make a profit by locking them down, but it’s not a given at all that it is going to work out that way.

Similarly Intel has been hell-bent to fuse away features on their chips so often you get a desktop part that has a huge die area allocated to AVX features that you’re not allowed to use. Either the customer or the shareholders are paying to fabricate a lot of transistors the customer doesn’t get to use. It’s madness but except for Charlie Demerjian the whole computer press pretends it is normal.

Apple bailed out on Intel because Intel failed to stick to its roadmap to improve their chips (they’re number one why try harder?) and they are lucky to have customers that accept that a new version of MacOS can drop older chips which means MacOS benefits from features that were introduced more than ten years ago. Maybe Intel and Microsoft are locked in a deadly embrace but their saving grace is that every ARM vendor other than Apple has failed to move the needle on ARM performance since 2017, which itself has to be an interesting story that I haven’t seen told.

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