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Ask HN: How to get into quantitative trading?

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Re: Ask HN: How to get into quantitative trading?

#81
post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Insider trading Market rigging Survivor bias (not shenanigans that one)

Insider trading: there's a lot of information freely available that can be used to make predictions Market rigging: the market can be affected by your behaviour without you rigging anything Survivorship bias: this can be argued for any competitive industry. Don't engage in it unless you're good at it.

Sigh! People really want to believe there is some magic trick to trading. There is not.

> Insider trading: there's a lot of information freely available that can be used to make predictions

The efficient market hypothesis deals with that. The freely available information is priced in (nothing is free, and it takes time)

> Market rigging: the market can be affected by your behaviour without you rigging anything

I am talking of things like: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Libor_scandal and https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Forex_scandal. These are incidences where the traders got caught. Given the millions at stake, do you think many are caught?

To win at active trading you need an edge nobody else has. There have been cases of traders having insights not known to others. Pairs trading is the only example I know of. In that case the people who kept it secret made out like bandits for a few years, then the secret leaked and it is no longer profitable

The most common legal edge players have is scale: They are huge and nimble and can take advantage of opportunities at scale. It goes really well, until it does not, and another trading house collapses.

The most common edge I believe, after studying it for a decade, is crime. Big trading house, big crime

Re: Ask HN: How to get into quantitative trading?

#82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Did they pinky promise not to access the data or are there some actual barriers in place?

It being illegal seems like a pretty big barrier to me.

> It being illegal seems like a pretty big barrier to me.

That speaks volumes about your integrity. Good on you!

But it is not true.

Re: Ask HN: How to get into quantitative trading?

#83
post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It being illegal seems like a pretty big barrier to me.

> It being illegal seems like a pretty big barrier to me. That speaks volumes about your integrity. Good on you! But it is not true.

I wouldn't be so sure about that. Also, even if people cross the barrier it doesn't mean it is not there or isn't big. But thanks for the compliment!

Re: Ask HN: How to get into quantitative trading?

#84
post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How many hedge funds are there? A few thousand? How many beat the s&p? Of those how much can be attributed statistically to skill rather than luck?

> How many hedge funds are there? A few thousand? How many beat the s&p? The average index fund fails to outperform the S&P. How many passive index funds are there worldwide? Thousands? How many beat VTI or S&P500? Answer: QQQ and small cap. > Of those how much can be attributed statistically to skill rather than luck? If you are picking S&P as your champion, then I am allowed to pick a hedge fund as my champion. And…

>The average index fund fails to outperform the S&P

This is a straw man as most people understand investing in indexes as buying a an index that tracks the s&p.

>If you are picking S&P as your champion, then I am allowed to pick a hedge fund as my champion.

You are making a false equivalence. The s&p is a proxy for the us market and therefore is a benchmark. It captures the captures the bets placed by all market participants including citadel.

Citadel does something beyond buying and selling equities to generate that alpha. And it’s likely not just restricted to equities. Nonetheless they are an outlier. Which is the point I was making. Most people won’t do better than the us market in aggregate over a similar stretch of time.

Re: Ask HN: How to get into quantitative trading?

#85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

it's usually front month ES, depending on volume. And MES for smaller accounts.

I'd love to talk to you more. I tried to make a Mastodon account to reach you. I just have questions about how you might know this/what else I could learn from you. I don't trade or anything like that, just interested in learning if you'd like to chat more.

I don't trade, either. I just code custom data collection, quantity allocation, future roll and automated execution algorithms for certified trading advisors.
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