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Birth rates are falling in the Nordics. Are natalist policies no longer enough?

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Re: Birth rates are falling in the Nordics. Are natalist policies no longer enough?

#31
post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The ratio of housing cost vs real income almost tripled over the last 20 years in Sweden I think this is all that needs to be said on these articles. (There's a lot more that _could_ be said, such as how few actual birthing HN readers there are, but I think the economics is really simple at the root of it.) Besides, even the countries with really the worst outlook and conditions aren't falling all that fast. Russia…

But what is driving the housing prices up in the Nordics? Population decline would suggest weakening demand. The EU is famous for long lasting housing so lack of new inventory shouldn't hit supply side that hard.

Rising lifespans and immigration has made our population grow despite relatively low fertility.

Another huge problem right now is that the high prices has made it tricky for _older_ people to move, a large rent controlled apartment for an retired person is far cheaper than even the smallest new apartments if the lease is changed, so you have tons of retired people with kids that moved out (or should have moved out) living in 4-5 bedroom flats whilst families are crammed into smaller ones.

The only way out is to buy an apartment/house instead of renting, but here profit-taxation comes into play making elder people hesitant about selling because the huge price increases (often 90%) makes the 30% profit tax almost 30% of their selling price so they actually can't even afford to buy something reasonable since it'd anything relatively smaller would be too expensive for them.

One way out of this would be to lower the profit-tax of a dwelling by 0.5-1% for each year lived in it, that'd make retired people able to sell their dwellings w/o hardly any taxes and should enable a more dynamic market.

Re: Birth rates are falling in the Nordics. Are natalist policies no longer enough?

#32

Crossposting from my own Reddit comment about the same article: No, it's just that the policies aren't changing fast enough to match the drop in culture pressure/attitudes that used to push people to have kids (especially religious ones). Major things that have pushed people to have kids: * De facto retirement plan / can actually make you richer (sorta) * Cultural/religious pressure * Emotional personal reasons: you…

> Making parenting net zero on your budget is a radical suggestion that politically would probably be unpopular, especially among people who absolutely don't want kids: because NOT having kids is currently viewed as the 'smart financial choice', being financially equal with parents would likely be viewed as oppression. They would view it as a subsidy from a childfree lifestyle to a child-supporting one...which is exactly correct, of course, because currently the child-supporting lifestyle ends up supporting the childfree one when it comes time to retire.

Exactly. For years there's been all kinds of shaming of poor mothers. It's drilled into people that being a parent when you aren't financially independent is a bad choice. Not really surprising that people don't want to take that on if they don't have to. Parenting isn't all that popular in the broader political discourse sphere.

Re: Birth rates are falling in the Nordics. Are natalist policies no longer enough?

#33
post #5

Solution is simple and well-known but requires balls: separate childbearing from marriage politically, and treat it as a full-time job. Institute flat tax charged from all adult population and use it to pay salaries to all women (not "families") with children based on number of children without regard to "quality", variating (guaranteed inflation-adjusted till age of 18) salaries, and taxes, according to the birthrat…

>this will be exploited by the poorest underclass women who will have lots and lots of children to milk the taxpayer (and that's fine!)

It blows my mind that people think this way. You're going to get a lot of children who are wanted for fiscal benefits, but are unwanted from a maternal benefit. So yes, number goes up, but at what non-fiscal cost?

Re: Birth rates are falling in the Nordics. Are natalist policies no longer enough?

#34
post #5

Solution is simple and well-known but requires balls: separate childbearing from marriage politically, and treat it as a full-time job. Institute flat tax charged from all adult population and use it to pay salaries to all women (not "families") with children based on number of children without regard to "quality", variating (guaranteed inflation-adjusted till age of 18) salaries, and taxes, according to the birthrat…

People as cattle.

I see some issues with that.

Re: Birth rates are falling in the Nordics. Are natalist policies no longer enough?

#35
post #5

Solution is simple and well-known but requires balls: separate childbearing from marriage politically, and treat it as a full-time job. Institute flat tax charged from all adult population and use it to pay salaries to all women (not "families") with children based on number of children without regard to "quality", variating (guaranteed inflation-adjusted till age of 18) salaries, and taxes, according to the birthrat…

You will get downvotes from people who expected to increase quality when improving quantity at the same time.

I think the idea is horrible but didn't downvote.

I think I don't even have the button to.

Re: Birth rates are falling in the Nordics. Are natalist policies no longer enough?

#36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're right. We've gotten too rich. Every bit of data seems to show that the wealthier we get, the fewer babies we have. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1328574/fertility-rate-w...

It's a lot more complicated than that. France has a higher GDP per capita than South Korea, but has a fertility rate of 1.7 vs .7. 1.7 isn't replacement but it's not national extinction. There's a cultural element here besides pure economics.

Oh yeah. The truth is obviously way more complicated and nuanced.

I was just being snippy at the parent comment giving the really tired complaint that it's all about not having enough money (obviously false).

Re: Birth rates are falling in the Nordics. Are natalist policies no longer enough?

#37

Crossposting from my own Reddit comment about the same article: No, it's just that the policies aren't changing fast enough to match the drop in culture pressure/attitudes that used to push people to have kids (especially religious ones). Major things that have pushed people to have kids: * De facto retirement plan / can actually make you richer (sorta) * Cultural/religious pressure * Emotional personal reasons: you…

Agree with all this. I think the lowered birthrate is all explained by the accessibility & acceptability of birth control. Before birth control, if you didn't want to have kids, you had to be celibate, which uh no, thanks. So lots of people had kids whether they wanted them or not. Now that we have a choice, we're finding many people just choose not to.

If this is a problem that we want to solve, then the solution IMO is to treat child rearing as the full-time job that it is. I don't mean subsidies or tax breaks, I'm talking a full $70k/year salary for the job of Being A Parent. As a childless person myself, I would support this.

Re: Birth rates are falling in the Nordics. Are natalist policies no longer enough?

#38

The ratio of housing cost vs real income almost tripled over the last 20 years in Sweden. Add a looming climate crisis and a self-fulfillment-oriented culture and you get very few new babies.

I found this article fascinating. It's about the uk affordability of housing but with 175 years of data.

https://www.schroders.com/en-gb/uk/individual/insights/what-...

You can clearly see the impact of ww1 and the influenza pandemic in the 1914-18 period.

Re: Birth rates are falling in the Nordics. Are natalist policies no longer enough?

#39
post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The ratio of housing cost vs real income almost tripled over the last 20 years in Sweden I think this is all that needs to be said on these articles. (There's a lot more that _could_ be said, such as how few actual birthing HN readers there are, but I think the economics is really simple at the root of it.) Besides, even the countries with really the worst outlook and conditions aren't falling all that fast. Russia…

But what is driving the housing prices up in the Nordics? Population decline would suggest weakening demand. The EU is famous for long lasting housing so lack of new inventory shouldn't hit supply side that hard.

A baby born today isn't going to add demand for housing for almost 2 decades.

Re: Birth rates are falling in the Nordics. Are natalist policies no longer enough?

#40
post #25

The ratio of housing cost vs real income almost tripled over the last 20 years in Sweden. Add a looming climate crisis and a self-fulfillment-oriented culture and you get very few new babies.

Upper-middle and upper class aren't having children either though, so my bet is on the latter side of your argument. Huge opportunity costs for having kids before your mid 30s, and afterwards, it's a bit late to have more than a couple kids to have sustainable population numbers. Definitely a bit hypocritical of me, since I'm also a part of the problem who doesn't want to have kids. But, at least for me, it's not wor…

>Upper-middle and upper class aren't having children either though

Interesting. In USA fertility is tub / U shaped [0]. Filthy rich just hire nannies and bang away and dirt poor have none to negative opportunity cost

[0] https://twitter.com/theHauer/status/1222514313723875332/phot...

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