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Real estate giant China Evergrande will be liquidated

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Re: Real estate giant China Evergrande will be liquidated

#91
post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The foreigners probably loaned money to Evergrande a long time ago, before the issues started appearing.

The issues were apparent since 2000. The vast majority of Evergrande's outstanding foreign debt is from >2012. BlackRock, HSBC, and UBS poured in about $3B of the $25B in 2021 alone... And, I'm sorry - if you didn't see a risk doing that in 2021 - you're gonna lose all your money sooner or later. In BlackRock's case - it was primarily for 401k-ers for exposure to Chinese bonds. I think the US should've made it illega…

If only someone had warned us!

Re: Real estate giant China Evergrande will be liquidated

#92
post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You would have to know mandarin (to read through government economic reports), and have access to Douyin videos. And these videos get taken down by the authorities fairly quickly

There's probably a dozen people reading this thread who know enough Mandarin to handle a few short Douyin videos if you could provide us with links. Though as a platform it lends itself well to amplifying extreme claims backed by speculation that play into people's fears, so unless the accounts in question have a history of well-sourced factual reporting, I'd be rather skeptical.

I'll paste one sample, it's safer

1、恒大,龙头房企,负债规模约2.6万亿,2021年9月正式宣告暴雷。

2、中梁,浙江房企,负债规模约2000亿,2022年4月公告美元债寻求展期,宣告暴雷。

3、俊发,云南房企,负债规模约1200亿,2022年4月2.19亿信托贷款未兑付,宣告暴雷。

4、融创,龙头房企,负债规模约1万亿,2022年3月美元债展期,宣告暴雷。

5、世茂,龙头房企,负债规模约4000亿,2022年3月公告60亿信托展期,宣告暴雷。

6、龙光,粤系房企,负债规模约2000亿,2022年3月公告美元债违约,宣告暴雷

7、祥生,浙江房企,负债规模约1500亿,2022年3月,1200万美元利息违约,宣告暴雷。

8、大发,上海房企,负债规模约300亿,2022年3月2228万元美元债利息无法偿还,宣告暴雷。

9、禹洲,闽系房企,负债规模约900亿,2022年3月美元债利息2125万美元违约,宣告暴雷。

10、正荣,闽系房企,负债规模约2000亿,2022年2月公告美元债违约,宣告暴雷。

11、富力,粤系房企,负债规模约3000亿,2021年12月7亿美元债展期,宣告暴雷。

12、华夏幸福,产城地产龙头,负债规模约2600亿,2021年2月首次承认52亿债务逾期,宣告暴雷。

13、佳兆业,粤系房企,负债规模约2300亿,2021年11月3亿理财产品未兑付,宣告暴雷。

14、阳光城,闽系房企,负债规模约3500亿,2021年公司理财未兑付,宣告暴雷。

15、奥园,粤系房企,负债规模约2500亿,2021年11月,6590万元信托贷款违约,宣告暴雷。

16、新力,江西房企,负债规模约1000亿,2021年10月2.5亿美元债违约,宣告暴雷。

17、花样年,粤系房企,负债规模约600亿,2021年10月2亿美元债违约,宣告暴雷。

18、当代置业,负债规模约800亿,2021年10月3亿美元债违约,宣告暴雷。

19、中庚地产,闽系房企,负债规模300亿,2021年10月9.3亿债务违约,宣告暴雷。

20、光耀地产,粤系房企,负债规模100亿,2021年9月宣告破产。

21、蓝光,川渝房企,负债规模约2000亿,2021年5月中期票据违约,宣告暴雷,目前逾期未偿还债务已达300亿。

22、阳光100,老牌房企,负债规模约400亿,2021年8月债券违约,宣告暴雷。

23、德润创展,深圳房企,负债20亿,2021年8月宣告破产。

24、广州粤泰,粤系房企,负债规模80亿,2021年8月宣告破产。

25、宝能地产,深圳房企,负债规模2000亿,2021年8月理财产品逾期,宣告暴雷。

26、实地,粤系房企,负债规模约200亿,2021年7月商票拒付,宣告暴雷。

27、三盛宏业,上海房企,负债规模约500亿,2019年10月员工理财未兑付,宣告暴雷,公司老板失踪,被法院悬赏1000万。

28、福晟,闽系房企,负债规模约700亿,2019年12月3亿基金违约兑付,宣告暴雷。

29、泰禾,闽系房企,负债规模约2000亿,2020年7月债券违约,宣告暴雷,目前逾期未偿还债务已达430亿。

30、卓达地产,北方房企,负债规模300亿,2018年开始,卓达24次被列入被执行人,此外还有7起股权冻结,涉及金额约9.14亿。

这30家房企的负债总规模是7.48万亿

also, https://www.reddit.com/media?url=https%3A%2F%2Fi.redd.it%2F%...

Re: Real estate giant China Evergrande will be liquidated

#93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It will be very interesting to see how the CCP navigates this coming recession.

I would call it a Great Depression https://www.forbes.com/sites/miltonezrati/2024/01/22/chinas-... . And the depression probably started in 2021 or 2022.

> And the depression probably started in 2021 or 2022.

GDP is generally a bogus metric but it's an odd kind of depression that has a 5% growth in it.

Re: Real estate giant China Evergrande will be liquidated

#94
post #75
post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Interesting. It's unclear how you liquidate the parent company without liquidating subsidiaries (who is going to buy Hengda RE?) and it seems like legally the HK decision should be binding: > Hong Kong and the mainland city of Shenzhen — where Evergrande is based — have a mutual insolvency recognition agreement, but it’s “effectively inoperative” But China basically ignores HK in this.

I'm very naive about all of this, can I ask what this means? Evergrande has been ordered to liquidate, on paper this means that the Chinese subsidiary Hengda must also liquidate, but China's just... not going to liquidate Hengda? So instead of Evergrande's creditors dividing up Evergrande+Hengda's assets only Evergrande's assets are going to be liquidated? If that's right, how does that work? Does Hengda get bought a…

> Does China just tell Evergrande's creditors "too bad"?

that sounds inline with standard operating procedures.

Re: Real estate giant China Evergrande will be liquidated

#95
post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

CNN has quotes to the contrary. Most of their Chinese assets are owned by Hengda Real Estate Group, which is legally independent. https://www.cnn.com/2024/01/29/business/evergrande-ordered-t...

Interesting. It's unclear how you liquidate the parent company without liquidating subsidiaries (who is going to buy Hengda RE?) and it seems like legally the HK decision should be binding: > Hong Kong and the mainland city of Shenzhen — where Evergrande is based — have a mutual insolvency recognition agreement, but it’s “effectively inoperative” But China basically ignores HK in this.

HK is where the foreign debt is.

This is freeing the Chinese business of its obligations of $25B in foreign debt.

Presumably that makes for a better business.

Who knows. Evergrande could easily be worth less than -$25B. No one wants to buy a business worth negative money. But it's definitely worth less negative money now.

Re: Real estate giant China Evergrande will be liquidated

#96

A couple of things to note: 1.) Why did it take Evergrande 3 years to liquidate? In western countries, liquidation happens in a few months. One should note that Evergrande did not get that big by itself; obviously it had the support of CCP elites to secure huge bank loans. Therefore, when it went bankrupt, the delay was to allow these elites to pull money/liquidable assets out of Evergrande. Thus after 3 years, Everg…

> This bodes very ill for creditors. Foreign creditors account only for $25B of the $300B liabilities for Evergrande. I'm sorry - but any foreigner who lent Evergrande money thinking this wasn't a huge risk is a moron. > This will accelerate the real estate price decline in all parts of China, on top of the 30-40% drop we're seeing in Tier 1 cities, on top of the 50-60% drop we're seeing in non-Tier 1 cities. Accordi…

> any foreigner who lent Evergrande money thinking this wasn't a huge risk is a moron.

Or they are very smart while investing your money. Check your country's pension fund, see who manages it and what they invest in. Or better yet, don't.

Re: Real estate giant China Evergrande will be liquidated

#97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would call it a Great Depression https://www.forbes.com/sites/miltonezrati/2024/01/22/chinas-... . And the depression probably started in 2021 or 2022.

> And the depression probably started in 2021 or 2022. GDP is generally a bogus metric but it's an odd kind of depression that has a 5% growth in it.

You can easily get 5% growth and worse living standards.

Expand your balance sheet to pay everyone to dig a hole.

GDP goes up.

As long as you ignore debt, GDP doesn't really mean anything.

Look at China's debt.

Re: Real estate giant China Evergrande will be liquidated

#98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would call it a Great Depression https://www.forbes.com/sites/miltonezrati/2024/01/22/chinas-... . And the depression probably started in 2021 or 2022.

> And the depression probably started in 2021 or 2022. GDP is generally a bogus metric but it's an odd kind of depression that has a 5% growth in it.

Is that 5% growth? Or is that a piece of paper with a number "5" in it? There is a difference.

Re: Real estate giant China Evergrande will be liquidated

#99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> This bodes very ill for creditors. Foreign creditors account only for $25B of the $300B liabilities for Evergrande. I'm sorry - but any foreigner who lent Evergrande money thinking this wasn't a huge risk is a moron. > This will accelerate the real estate price decline in all parts of China, on top of the 30-40% drop we're seeing in Tier 1 cities, on top of the 50-60% drop we're seeing in non-Tier 1 cities. Accordi…

cursory searches on western media reviews shows 20%, 25%, 30%. https://medium.com/alpha-beta-blog/even-beijing-home-prices-... https://fortune.com/2023/08/17/china-home-sales-worse-than-o... https://sccei.fsi.stanford.edu/china-briefs/tier-3-cities-ho... My sources are from real estate agents in China. Not sure why anyone would actually trust official numbers from China. China still claimed 5% gdp growth last year. p…

A Medium post isn't a source.

Your fortune article says PRICES are only down 2.4% (roughly the "official" stats).

Your other article is about T3 cities.

Re: Real estate giant China Evergrande will be liquidated

#100

This is only the Hong Kong business. Which is why it hasn't had the impact you would expect.

This reddit comment explains this quite well: https://old.reddit.com/r/Economics/comments/1adnx32/evergran... > HK is sort of what NY is to the US. It is a peripheral region with some minor degree of autonomy but because it just so happens to house the Chinese version of Wall Street this means it’s judiciary is a little bit special when it comes to dealing with insolvency and other corporate issues. This means that i…

If DC took NYC by force.
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