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I used to not worry about climate change. Now I do [video]

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Re: I used to not worry about climate change. Now I do [video]

#801

Post by timschmidt »

RankingMember wrote: post #784
timschmidt wrote: post #416

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> we don't need 80 billion as a prerequisite to have more Your claim, unproven. My point is that 80 billions souls will produce 80 billions souls worth of art, science, literature, and culture. Which sounds divine. Why would you be opposed to such a thing if it can be accomplished sustainably? > It's bounded by an upper limit of humans living like turkeys in a turkey farm and tossing the weak in the chipper to blend…

> My point is that 80 billions souls will produce 80 billions souls worth of art, science, literature, and culture. Which sounds divine. This sounds like magical thinking. Even making the huge leap to say that cultural output would somehow scale commensurate with population infinitely, what does that actually look like in a reality with finite time and attention? I think we've already passed the point where anyone ca…

Nothing magical about observation. Seems to have scaled so far. Not sure what magic you think might interrupt individuals' desire to produce more art and science.

> I think we've already passed the point where anyone can keep up with all the cultural output (music, literature, graphical media) that is released each day.

Good thing that's not necessary for one to benefit from it. I, for one, am happy to benefit from all the medical innovation I can't keep up with.

Re: I used to not worry about climate change. Now I do [video]

#802

Post by tzs »

wmanley wrote: post #600
tzs wrote: post #401

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The problem with these "minor changes to their lifestyle" is that they need to accommodate exponentially growing population that already is a magnitude or more higher than persons who need to adjust. It was approximately exponential up until around 200ish AD, fell below exponential for a few hundred years, then was above exponential for around 600 years (the growth rate was going up approximately linearly), had a p…

> I was curious what it is called when the growth rate itself is going up exponentially The derivative of the exponential function is the exponential function. d/dx eˣ = eˣ So if it’s growing exponentially the rate of growth is exponential and the rate of that acceleration is also exponential.

There's two different ways to indicate how fast a function, F(x), is growing.

One is to look at host much its value changes as x goes to x+d, and divide that to d to get an average rate of change from x to x+d. Take the limit as d -> 0 to get the instantaneous rate of change at x.

That gives a rate of change of Limit as d->0 of (F(x+d) - F(x)) / d, which is pretty much the textbook definition of d/dx F(x).

The other way is to look not at the actual value of the change but rather how much of a fraction of F(x) it was. That gives this measure: ((F(x+d)/F(x) - 1) / d. The instantaneous value would be the limit as d -> 0. That limit is of the form 0/0, but using L'Hôpital's rule we can turn it into (using the notation F'(...) for d/dx (F...)) the limit as d -> 0 of F'(x+d) / F(x) which is F'(x) / F(x).

When people talk of growth rate they usually mean this second measure. The first is usually called the rate of change. BTW, note that rate of change and growth rate are related. The growth rate is the rate of change of log(F(x)).

Exponential functions have an exponential rate of change but a constant growth rate. It is that constant growth that makes the concept of a half-life work for things that exponentially decay.

Re: I used to not worry about climate change. Now I do [video]

#803

Post by gitaarik »

Version467 wrote: post #631
whoknowsidont wrote: post #269

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The whole premise of the book is a multi-layered hail mary, or a hail mary that continually plays out like a jackpot based on vibes and misconstruing the forces that are causing climate change. Not sure why you'd call this "fantastic" other than it's a feel-good book without any evidence to support it. >Carbon emissions per capita are actually down [1] It takes maybe 2 minutes, maybe upwards of 10, to realize why thi…

You're free to dislike the book, but I can't really follow your criticism. The book is clearly not "based on vibes". It's chock full of data to support the authors claims. Now you might argue that the data either doesn't support the claims made, or you might doubt its legitimacy, but instead of providing a reason you just told me that it should be obvious why the book is nonsense. That doesn't really give me a lot to…

Indeed, hopefulness is much better and productive than hopelessness. As long as it's done in a realistic way, not denying the facts, not cherry picking data, etc. Hopeful people can accomplish a lot more than hopeless people.

Re: I used to not worry about climate change. Now I do [video]

#804

Post by dang »

alexvoda wrote: post #140

@dang Is it just my impression that HN is drifting rigtwards on this topic? I remember HN being more in favour of proactive action against anthropic climate change. This thread feels dominated by attitudes reflecting inaction.

I really don't know. It's possible. If there is such a trend, I wouldn't necessarily call it 'rightwards' because there is always a range of different factors and left vs. right is only one.

All I can tell you for sure is that perceptions of trends on HN are usually unreliable. You definitely can't judge it by one thread. The Launch HN posts of startups working in climate tech generally get favorable receptions, for example.

Re: I used to not worry about climate change. Now I do [video]

#805

Post by Synaesthesia »

lozenge wrote: post #217
Synaesthesia wrote: post #131

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The big problem is the way that people want US-style lifestyles with big houses and cars. This consumes way more energy than European or Asian style living in apartments with public transport. Overpopulation will solve itself as countries develop. We’ve seen that over and over.

Well, the bulk of them want more meat, washing machines and air conditioning. The main increase of energy usage has been due to this, not people in urban areas eskewing apartments and public transport to drive cars and live in suburban houses. https://youtu.be/6sqnptxlCcw?si=FfqAqooG9qg4kejC Another fun fact: 80% of the world's population has never flown, and only 2-4% fly abroad in a year.

The amount of concrete needed to build such big homes contributes to carbon emissions, not to mention destruction of nature, and it also costs more to heat and cool.

Re: I used to not worry about climate change. Now I do [video]

#806

Post by fulafel »

AndrewKemendo wrote: post #644
zug_zug wrote: post #637

Just a contextual note -- one thing Sabine says is: AI won't help because we know the exact solution, we just aren't willing to do it. Presumably she's referring to her first proposal -- a carbon tax. It's my understanding that there's nearly consensus among economists that a carbon tax is the most efficient solution to global warming, but political consensus that it would never happen when framed as a tax. If you do…

A global tax requires global enforcement No sovereign is going to agree to subordinate itself without all others doing the same Classic prisoners dilemma

A lot of places already have carbon pricing in place (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_emission_trading#Exampl...).

The international political system has a long track record of cajoling nations into joining treaties that theoretically are like this.

It's not prisoner's dilemma, because the main property of the PD problem is that parties are prevented from communicating and cooperating with each other. When there's negotiations, transparencency/monitoring, etc, parties can cooperate. If you think international treaty development is like PD, you are due for a for a big optimism update!

Re: I used to not worry about climate change. Now I do [video]

#807

Post by wolverine876 »

AndrewKemendo wrote: post #800
wolverine876 wrote: post #796

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't understand your point: There are bad things in the world, so everything is bad? We could point to lots of good things too. In fact, you live better - far better - than anyone in history. It's not even close. It was built by the post-war 'neoliberal' order, on a foundation of human rights and free markets. For us to quit and complain after all the work our predecessors did, remaining optimistic and working in…

I’m not sure what to tell you here cause you’re not looking at reality because life is hard for a lot of people and getting harder. I suggest you read this: https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rstb.2022.026...

> life is hard for a lot of people and getting harder.

Life is hard and always has been, but it's far easier than the lives of our ancestors (on average, of course).

Just look at the people who lived through - or the (200?) million who died in and more who lost everything in - WWII, less than 100 years ago, right after the Great Depression, right after WWI. And they were optimistic and energetic enough to build historically free, peaceful, and prosperous postwar order.

There is far more to do, absolutely. Let's get to work.

Re: I used to not worry about climate change. Now I do [video]

#808

Post by coalteddy »

tomtomistaken wrote: post #177
coalteddy wrote: post #125

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This site looks very interesting but I'm not quite sure what I'm looking at. What is that map for and how does it filter sources, since it seems like it doesn't include all airports.

There’s a lot of information there. They literally answer the question “What am I looking at?” in the first popup you get (How to use, top left corner).

My bad. Didnt show on mobile.

Re: I used to not worry about climate change. Now I do [video]

#809

Post by harambae »

hiAndrewQuinn wrote: post #403
LightBug1 wrote: post #382

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Self recommending! Come to Finland and help us build a stronger democracy, whatever that means to you. " How are you finding life as an enviromental migrant?

Great! Much nicer than Boston.

You were already in Boston and worried about global warming?

How much do you think it’s going to warm?

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