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Can Earthquakes Be Predicted? (2022)

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Re: Can Earthquakes Be Predicted? (2022)

#31

There was a recent article on predicting earthquakes with GPS signals.. https://phys.org/news/2023-07-gps-earthquake-predictor.html

There is a response to this paper on the journal website: https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adg2565#eletters... (the eLetters section), which claims the signal from GPS is just noise.

Re: Can Earthquakes Be Predicted? (2022)

#32
post #6
post #3

What if earthquakes could not only be predicted, but manually triggered? Imagine the warfare implications.

It's much easier to cause something than to predict when it will happen naturally. As Alan Kay famously said, "The best way to predict the future is to invent it."

> All stable processes we shall predict. All unstable processes we shall control. — JvN

Re: Can Earthquakes Be Predicted? (2022)

#33
post #3

What if earthquakes could not only be predicted, but manually triggered? Imagine the warfare implications.

Fracking does this on a small scale. I had an excellent geology professor, Donald Prothero, who argued manually triggering earthquakes could be a much better idea in high tension areas than waiting for them to happen organically, as we could prepare, and the triggered earthquakes wouldn’t be as bad as waiting for them to happen. But the paperwork would be a nightmare(:

Fracking triggers earthquakes, but not on demand.

Re: Can Earthquakes Be Predicted? (2022)

#34
I've read that there is a strong correlation between the timing of earthquakes and the volume of gasses like hydrogen and methane leaking out of the earth. The volume of gas can change very significantly before and after an earthquake. There is newfound attention on this topic because there is a race to discover and harvest natural geologic hydrogen (look up latest news about "natural hydrogen").

I found this research pretty mind blowing and took these notes to highlight this topic.

Underground “Natural Hydrogen”: Notes on Research Review Paper by Viacheslav Zgonnik - https://docs.google.com/document/d/1ucnE0B_WQA4zo8tTTsZyBu0i...

Re: Can Earthquakes Be Predicted? (2022)

#35

I've read that there is a strong correlation between the timing of earthquakes and the volume of gasses like hydrogen and methane leaking out of the earth. The volume of gas can change very significantly before and after an earthquake. There is newfound attention on this topic because there is a race to discover and harvest natural geologic hydrogen (look up latest news about "natural hydrogen"). I found this researc…

My notes on earthquakes from that doc:

Hydrogen is associated with Earthquakes and can maybe even predict them!

In areas with recent tectonic activity: “Higher hydrogen concentrations were observed,” and “hydrogen gas was observed in ground water.” [pg 20]

“[Correlated with earthquakes,] hydrogen concentrations measured at continuous monitoring sites show abrupt changes in concentration over several orders of magnitude, up to 10 times, in a short period of time.” [pg 40]

“Indeed, at epicenters of large earthquakes a reduction in the ozone layer above them has been observed.” [pg 40]

“A systematic study of hydrogen in aquifers shows that H2 concentrations are in- versely correlated with the age of the area's last tectonic activity.” [pg 41]

“Another study shows that hydrogen concentrations in earthquake-associated faults are usually much higher than concentrations in non-earthquake faults.” [pg 41]

‘During earthquakes hydrogen concentrations in fault zones have been shown to increase by several orders of magnitude.” [pg 41]

“Numerous articles discuss hydrogen as a good earthquake indicator and the possibility of monitoring hydrogen for the prediction of seismic events.” [pg 41] More detail below

Re: Can Earthquakes Be Predicted? (2022)

#38
post #37

So basically his answer is “No, and anyone who says you can is lying to get funding.”

But don't they say ('they say' - legit source) that dogs can predict earthquakes?

There are claims and anecdotal reports but (caveat that I'm not an earthquake scientist lol) doesn't seem to have expert consensus and I'm not seeing anything that passes the bar of not being able to be explained by people who've heard that animals predict earthquakes retroactively blaming any behavior they noticed on earthquake awareness.

Review article linked from usgs.gov: https://pubs.geoscienceworld.org/ssa/bssa/article-abstract/1...

Re: Can Earthquakes Be Predicted? (2022)

#40
despite all the claims to the contrary https://www.youtube.com/@dutchsinse manages to predict earthquakes. (with some variability of course)

seems to offend scientific types and be shunned for some reason, and yet the video evidence is there of his forecasts being correct, and his methodology is documented.

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