Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Real estate giant China Evergrande will be liquidated

nytimes.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

11–20 of 364 posts

Re: Real estate giant China Evergrande will be liquidated

#11

Post by downvotetruth »

aspenmayer wrote: post #7
s1artibartfast wrote: post #6

I cant help but recall a 2015 Peter Theil interview with Tyler Cowen [1] where he talked about the black magic predictive power of company names. Hard to unsee a company called "ever bigger" getting overextended. https://conversationswithtyler.com/episodes/peter-thiel/

There’s a word for that self-fulfilling prophetic philosophical/hypothetical principle: nominative determinism. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nominative_determinism

That is two words or a phrase. Also, it is understood to refer to the names of people and not all countries are known to be liberal as some in the legal equality of incorporated entities - maybe alethonym or an orthonym. More practically, in the US the SEC could take the initiative and at least extend https://www.sec.gov/news/statement/lizarraga-statement-names... to some of the absurd ticker names especially given the desire to focus on humorless freeway postings.

Re: Real estate giant China Evergrande will be liquidated

#12

Post by aspenmayer »

downvotetruth wrote: post #11
aspenmayer wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There’s a word for that self-fulfilling prophetic philosophical/hypothetical principle: nominative determinism. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nominative_determinism

That is two words or a phrase. Also, it is understood to refer to the names of people and not all countries are known to be liberal as some in the legal equality of incorporated entities - maybe alethonym or an orthonym. More practically, in the US the SEC could take the initiative and at least extend https://www.sec.gov/news/statement/lizarraga-statement-names... to some of the absurd ticker names especially given t…

> That is two words or a phrase.

In a word: no. Specifically, it’s a compound word (singular).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Compound_(linguistics)

Re: Real estate giant China Evergrande will be liquidated

#13

Post by seanmcdirmid »

ratg13 wrote: post #10
seanmcdirmid wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s worse than that. They have unfinished projects with units that have already been bought on mortgage. You have people making monthly payments for unfinished apartments (and I don’t mean just unrenovated, which is expected). That guy who was banned from trading in Hong Kong in 2016 for shorting the stock in 2012 must feel vindicated, at least.

You neglect to mention that they are unfinished on purpose. In reality these "homes" are nothing more than a concrete box for legal/tax reasons. These are second or third "homes" for people that were purchased as a poor investment. The investors should eat the losses.

Many of them aren't second homes. The ones in the ghost cities sure, but Evergrande has (had?) more legit projects that were designed as actual housing. In any case, given that the mainland stock market is pretty much known as a sham, real estate has been the only investment option for much of the middle class. Investors "eating" their losses basically means huge widespread social upheaval in China. Imagine everyone being equivalent to their 401k going belly up, that wouldn't be pretty.

Re: Real estate giant China Evergrande will be liquidated

#14

Post by calrain »

aspenmayer wrote: post #12
downvotetruth wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That is two words or a phrase. Also, it is understood to refer to the names of people and not all countries are known to be liberal as some in the legal equality of incorporated entities - maybe alethonym or an orthonym. More practically, in the US the SEC could take the initiative and at least extend https://www.sec.gov/news/statement/lizarraga-statement-names... to some of the absurd ticker names especially given t…

> That is two words or a phrase. In a word: no. Specifically, it’s a compound word (singular). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Compound_(linguistics)

I think this example is called an open compound word, or a phrase.

Re: Real estate giant China Evergrande will be liquidated

#15

Post by downvotetruth »

aspenmayer wrote: post #12
downvotetruth wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That is two words or a phrase. Also, it is understood to refer to the names of people and not all countries are known to be liberal as some in the legal equality of incorporated entities - maybe alethonym or an orthonym. More practically, in the US the SEC could take the initiative and at least extend https://www.sec.gov/news/statement/lizarraga-statement-names... to some of the absurd ticker names especially given t…

> That is two words or a phrase. In a word: no. Specifically, it’s a compound word (singular). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Compound_(linguistics)

With very few exceptions, English compound words are stressed on their first component stem; yet, stress appears both on the first syllable of NOM-uh-nuh-tiv and the dih-TUR verb portion.

Re: Real estate giant China Evergrande will be liquidated

#16

Post by aspenmayer »

calrain wrote: post #14
aspenmayer wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> That is two words or a phrase. In a word: no. Specifically, it’s a compound word (singular). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Compound_(linguistics)

I think this example is called an open compound word, or a phrase.

Yes, an open compound word, not two words in this technical context. Not a phrase, per se, which seems odd to me also, but in this linguistic context, words, uh, have meaning. /s

From the Wikipedia link I posted above, especially the last quoted line:

> Compounding occurs when two or more words or signs are joined to make a longer word or sign. If the joining of the words or signs is orthographically represented with a hyphen, the result is a hyphenated compound (e.g., must-have, hunter-gatherer). If they are joined without an intervening space, it is a closed compound (e.g., footpath, blackbird). If they are joined with a space (e.g. school bus, high school, lowest common denominator), then the result – at least in English – may be an open compound. A group of words that is not a compound is a phrase.

Re: Real estate giant China Evergrande will be liquidated

#17

Post by greenhexagon »

seanmcdirmid wrote: post #13
ratg13 wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You neglect to mention that they are unfinished on purpose. In reality these "homes" are nothing more than a concrete box for legal/tax reasons. These are second or third "homes" for people that were purchased as a poor investment. The investors should eat the losses.

Many of them aren't second homes. The ones in the ghost cities sure, but Evergrande has (had?) more legit projects that were designed as actual housing. In any case, given that the mainland stock market is pretty much known as a sham, real estate has been the only investment option for much of the middle class. Investors "eating" their losses basically means huge widespread social upheaval in China. Imagine everyone…

There is much about China that I don't understand, but I'm curious about the ownership in the "ghost cities".

Given the ability of the CCP to significantly control major industries and movement of people, is it not possible that someone might buy an apartment in a "ghost city" while living in a rural area or renting in another city, expecting that people and jobs would flow to the city once it was completed?

Basically I don't really understand all the details, nuance and different corporate and governmental players involved in the "ghost city" phenomenon, but I'd almost expect that the government could make a "ghost city" into a "real city" in no time, by shutting down factories in one city and opening them there, or by changing internal migration restrictions.

Re: Real estate giant China Evergrande will be liquidated

#18

Post by s1artibartfast »

greenhexagon wrote: post #17
seanmcdirmid wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Many of them aren't second homes. The ones in the ghost cities sure, but Evergrande has (had?) more legit projects that were designed as actual housing. In any case, given that the mainland stock market is pretty much known as a sham, real estate has been the only investment option for much of the middle class. Investors "eating" their losses basically means huge widespread social upheaval in China. Imagine everyone…

There is much about China that I don't understand, but I'm curious about the ownership in the "ghost cities". Given the ability of the CCP to significantly control major industries and movement of people, is it not possible that someone might buy an apartment in a "ghost city" while living in a rural area or renting in another city, expecting that people and jobs would flow to the city once it was completed? Basicall…

That is certainly the less cynical take.

Few real people buy homes knowing with certainty they would remain empty. People speculated on new development, future growth, and induced demand. For some reason, people online like to make them martyrs or idiots. lots of schadenfreude.

The reality is a lot more mundane. They were just a risky investment bubble that popped.

Re: Real estate giant China Evergrande will be liquidated

#19

Post by seanmcdirmid »

greenhexagon wrote: post #17
seanmcdirmid wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Many of them aren't second homes. The ones in the ghost cities sure, but Evergrande has (had?) more legit projects that were designed as actual housing. In any case, given that the mainland stock market is pretty much known as a sham, real estate has been the only investment option for much of the middle class. Investors "eating" their losses basically means huge widespread social upheaval in China. Imagine everyone…

There is much about China that I don't understand, but I'm curious about the ownership in the "ghost cities". Given the ability of the CCP to significantly control major industries and movement of people, is it not possible that someone might buy an apartment in a "ghost city" while living in a rural area or renting in another city, expecting that people and jobs would flow to the city once it was completed? Basicall…

The Chinese government isn’t as powerful as you think it is, nor as centralized. All of these ghost cities (more like ghost districts) are local government driven, so the central government doesn’t care much to fill them. The local governments can push state activity there, like as happened in Ordos (city) and kangbashi (ghost district of city), but they can’t really control the rest of the economic activity needed to make it a thriving place. In Ordos’s case, the downfall of coal is going to depress the city no matter what, the central government won’t bother to save them.

Re: Real estate giant China Evergrande will be liquidated

#20

Post by seanmcdirmid »

voisin wrote: post #8
seanmcdirmid wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s worse than that. They have unfinished projects with units that have already been bought on mortgage. You have people making monthly payments for unfinished apartments (and I don’t mean just unrenovated, which is expected). That guy who was banned from trading in Hong Kong in 2016 for shorting the stock in 2012 must feel vindicated, at least.

Jim Chanos?

No, Andrew Left. See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andrew_Left#:~:text=In%202016%... and https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/andrew-left-...

Basically, the Hong Kong stock exchange is increasingly a scam as well.

Post reply on HN