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I used to not worry about climate change. Now I do [video]

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Re: I used to not worry about climate change. Now I do [video]

#341
post #156

@dang Is it just my impression that HN is drifting rigtwards on this topic? I remember HN being more in favour of proactive action against anthropic climate change. This thread feels dominated by attitudes reflecting inaction.

The whole Western world has shifted rightwards in recent years as can be witnessed in election results.

The whole Western world? It seems mostly men, not women: https://www.reddit.com/r/LeftWingMaleAdvocates/comments/1ac0...

Re: I used to not worry about climate change. Now I do [video]

#342

I no longer worry. I'm extremely pessimistic about the impending climate change. I believe Sabine isn't pessimistic enough about what to anticipate. Consider the tundra methane emissions and the explosive release of methane-hydrates from the oceans, along with water vapor, a potent greenhouse gas. The disaster looming over all ecosystems (a mass extinction event) that will happen in decades and the doom-phase could l…

> We can't colonize Greenland

But we can dig it up fast enough ro build all those batteries we need.

Re: I used to not worry about climate change. Now I do [video]

#343

I no longer worry. I'm extremely pessimistic about the impending climate change. I believe Sabine isn't pessimistic enough about what to anticipate. Consider the tundra methane emissions and the explosive release of methane-hydrates from the oceans, along with water vapor, a potent greenhouse gas. The disaster looming over all ecosystems (a mass extinction event) that will happen in decades and the doom-phase could l…

Climate change is a catastrophe, but it's not going to be the apocalypse and if we keep working on mititgation, there is a good chance it will merely be a "normal" scale disaster. For example - it's possible that tundra methane emissions in many areas could be mitigated relatively quickly by the regrowth of birch and pine scrubland whose increased evapotranspiration will reduce water tables and eliminate methane emis…

What was that story about a frog which was slowly boiled in a pot and didn't know it about it until it was too late?

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7069279/

Re: I used to not worry about climate change. Now I do [video]

#344

Weird. I used to worry about climate change and now I don’t. I guess the world has a way of finding its equilibrium. I do however worry about the accidental introduction of invasive species and diseases, which seems to be accelerating (see: citrus greening disease).

I guess the world has a way of finding its equilibrium. Which might mean the end of complex life forms like humans. The world does not equal civilisation.

What warming scenario on Earth would lead to the end of complex life forms? You realize that humans colonized most of the planet thousands of years ago with stone-aged technology, survived ice ages, lived in all sorts of climates? That the dinosaurs evolved on a world far warmer than we're likely to see? Complex life forms didn't all go extinct back then.

Re: I used to not worry about climate change. Now I do [video]

#345

@dang Is it just my impression that HN is drifting rigtwards on this topic? I remember HN being more in favour of proactive action against anthropic climate change. This thread feels dominated by attitudes reflecting inaction.

And what if?? Why are you @-ing dang as if his job is to maintain some kind of particular consensus in order to ... idk, support some kind of political narrative? Hah!

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Re: I used to not worry about climate change. Now I do [video]

#346

Earlier quoted context omitted.

i don't think overpopulation is the problem, but maybe it's a symptom. the problem is we've forced our way up to an unrealistically high standard of living which is completely unsustainable, and now we're trapped in an inescapable death spiral because nobody wants to go back. people aren't willing to stop paying for conveniences because they're cheaply available, corporations aren't willing to stop selling them becau…

"Standards of living" are not some kind of homogeneous global state. The true hard pill to swallow is that YOUR (and a few others') standard of living is unsustainable.

The majority of Earth's population would like to have that standard of living and strives for it.

Re: I used to not worry about climate change. Now I do [video]

#347

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've thought about this as well. It's feasible to move soil only to certain regions. Greenland and Antarctica aren't among them (remember the ice shields; they will continue to scrape all the soil as they melt). Some islands in Antarctic Ocean could potentially sustain a population of 20-40k. However, you need to start moving the soil now, but you will also need to develop methods of preserving this soil until it is…

There's lots of room in Northern US, Canada and Russia. Not sure why Greenland and Antartica would be the only living places on Earth. There's also the Rockies, Andes, Himalayas and other mountain ranges. That's some extreme doomerism. I doubt most of Earth will become uninhabitable. Some places will be harder to maintain larger populations and grow crops.

Places without decent soil (i.e. Northern Russia, or high mountains) can only grow food in meaningful qualities if you bomb the soil with copious amounts of fertilizer. Fertilizer production requires fossil fuels and advanced civilization, both of which are not a given in the future.

Re: I used to not worry about climate change. Now I do [video]

#348
post #339

I no longer worry. I'm extremely pessimistic about the impending climate change. I believe Sabine isn't pessimistic enough about what to anticipate. Consider the tundra methane emissions and the explosive release of methane-hydrates from the oceans, along with water vapor, a potent greenhouse gas. The disaster looming over all ecosystems (a mass extinction event) that will happen in decades and the doom-phase could l…

> We can't colonize Greenland or Antarctica due to the lack of fertile soil, and it would take thousands of years to develop it. I wonder if it would be possible to rip soil off places that are no longer habitable and transport it to Antarctica.

It's all about timing. You need the ice shields to be gone before you deploy the new soil; otherwise, it will be scraped or eroded. You also need to consider rising sea levels. You may need to think about bringing the soil first and storing it there until it's usable. Otherwise, you could lose it.

Re: I used to not worry about climate change. Now I do [video]

#349
post #224

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They are correct: Daily Sea Surface Temperature (notice the new paradigm started in 2023 and extending into 2024): https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/ Daily Surface Air Temperature: https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/t2_daily/?dm_id=world Daily Sea Ice Extent (click on "Show Southern Hemisphere", also showing concerns of being low in 2023): https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/seaice/ The most shocking is the…

Is 1+ enough of a trend to disregard most of the models? Is there no other explanation for the "new paradigm" of accelerating warming? You're saying that extreme warming scenario is now the correct science. I don't think there is a consensus about this.

It's not enough to call it a change of trend. I have another comment here where there are other, more temporary factors that also came into play. There's not consensus until after we see the new trend. Likely there are some temporary factors that will make the lines go down again when they wear out. But the overall trend might still be accellerating, just that it's going slower than normal human reference of time.

The increasing sea surface temperature is concerning because it directly is starting to harm millions of sea creatures that cannot adapt fast enough. There are multiple die-offs happening already that might be due to this.

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/article/ocean...

What's concerning is that all the arrows are pointing just one way. The discussion is now wether it's accellerating or not..

Re: I used to not worry about climate change. Now I do [video]

#350
post #331

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sustainable means different things to different people. In a simulator, could you have 12 billion people with their needs met, living fulfilled lives and continuing into the far future? Yes. Is there a political and practical way to reach that state? No. "One study estimates it would take just over 5 Earths to support the human population if everyone’s consumption patterns were similar to the average American." Any U…

I'm not sure why they think Americans are a good standard of living. If we want people to be 30+ percent obese, unhappy with dating and the stuff we ordered to have shipped yesterday. There's programs to give efficient LEDs from comed to people for changing it slowly.

People can get a good standard of living by exercising more but habit forming is hard and people can be very short termist and sheep like. Sheep like can be a positive thing too though (in a more health obsessed city you might encourage others).
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