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Groupon Plunges as Board Members Reportedly Leaving

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Re: Groupon Plunges as Board Members Reportedly Leaving

#81
post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Quick question: has YC funded any fabless semiconductor shops? (this isn't snark, I legitimately don't know). That has always been my representative sample of 'a real tech company.' I may be biased though, since I was brought up as an EE :).

I'd be curious to know that, too. I'd be very surprised, as the capital outlay to start even a small ASIC team is not small. A single simulator license costs considerably more than what the fine folks at YC invest in the companies they have under their wing. (I don't think it needs to be that way, BTW).

The hardest part about fabless semiconductor startups is the lack of flexibility to pivot.

The time to design chips correctly is 10x-20x higher than doing the same in c++ (let alone a higher level language).

Example: in my previous company we needed to do some Jpeg decode in hardware. You have to buy a library for that. The library aint cheap so you have to evaluate vendors first, then work with lawyers to negotiate a licensing agreement. Then you design, implement, and test integration into your chip. All of this takes 2-3 man-months.

By contrast, we prototyped it in sw in an afternoon, and could be out the door with tests and production polish in less than a week.

You can use fpgas or low-NRE ASICs like eASIC to reduce the build costs, but engineering hardware is really slow.

Re: Groupon Plunges as Board Members Reportedly Leaving

#82
post #57

Big fat I told you so (to anyone on HN I've predicted this to in the past)... Board Member/Director leaves... and what this signals: [1] Employees Confused. [2] Investors are going to really pissed off. [3] Stock is most likely going to continue to fall. (The signalling from this step down is huge). [4] It hints at possibility that the directors have had something to hide; something has been discovered; they have bee…

Time to short the stock?

You can try. However, due to the precarious nature of the stock it would be hard to find anyone who will lend it to you. However, if you did find someone willing to lend you a portion, it would cost you almost 100% in fees: http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/11/15/us-groupon-shortse...

Re: Groupon Plunges as Board Members Reportedly Leaving

#83
post #82
post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Time to short the stock?

You can try. However, due to the precarious nature of the stock it would be hard to find anyone who will lend it to you. However, if you did find someone willing to lend you a portion, it would cost you almost 100% in fees: http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/11/15/us-groupon-shortse...

Note that if you'd bought the put option mentioned in the article you would have made a 4x return in 6 months. No borrowing needed.

Re: Groupon Plunges as Board Members Reportedly Leaving

#84
post #83
post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can try. However, due to the precarious nature of the stock it would be hard to find anyone who will lend it to you. However, if you did find someone willing to lend you a portion, it would cost you almost 100% in fees: http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/11/15/us-groupon-shortse...

Note that if you'd bought the put option mentioned in the article you would have made a 4x return in 6 months. No borrowing needed.

But you wouldn't use the same amount of capital on an options trade. For example, if you're bankroll is $25,000, you might use it all to short the stock but it would be foolish to use it all to buy a put. It's more likely that you'd use a much smaller fraction of your stock purchasing unit size for options trading since the risk of losing 100% is higher.

Re: Groupon Plunges as Board Members Reportedly Leaving

#85
post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Time to short the stock?

No. Right now, with the bad news already coming out, the harm is increasingly priced into the stock price. The time to short was when they IPO'd and half of everyone saw this coming. Normally I have a rule of "never short". Wish I'd broken it this time :-(.

Why never short?

Re: Groupon Plunges as Board Members Reportedly Leaving

#86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No. Right now, with the bad news already coming out, the harm is increasingly priced into the stock price. The time to short was when they IPO'd and half of everyone saw this coming. Normally I have a rule of "never short". Wish I'd broken it this time :-(.

Why never short?

Because a short has a hard limit on the possible gain (the amount you got when selling minus the borrowing cost, if you can buy it back at zero when you have to return the stock), but no limit on possible losses (if there is a rally or a short squeeze and the price at which you have to buy it back is ten or hundred times of what you sold it for). This is especially nasty if your trade partner knows you have shorted 40% of the traded stock and he controls 61%: he can demand any price he wants for the 1% you must buy from him to fulfill your side of the trade. http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/30/business/worldbusiness/30i...

Re: Groupon Plunges as Board Members Reportedly Leaving

#87
post #7

Could this be the beginning of the end of Bubble 2.0? I understand this is just one company, but what I'm wondering is if this could have a domino effect.

No. However, it will delight folks who are predicting the death of Groupon

Correction: Folks who have been predicting Groupon's death since pre-IPO.

Re: Groupon Plunges as Board Members Reportedly Leaving

#88
post #82
post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Time to short the stock?

You can try. However, due to the precarious nature of the stock it would be hard to find anyone who will lend it to you. However, if you did find someone willing to lend you a portion, it would cost you almost 100% in fees: http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/11/15/us-groupon-shortse...

you don't need to borrow the stock to short it. You could buy puts, sell calls, sell a CFD, spread bet...

Re: Groupon Plunges as Board Members Reportedly Leaving

#89

Big fat I told you so (to anyone on HN I've predicted this to in the past)... Board Member/Director leaves... and what this signals: [1] Employees Confused. [2] Investors are going to really pissed off. [3] Stock is most likely going to continue to fall. (The signalling from this step down is huge). [4] It hints at possibility that the directors have had something to hide; something has been discovered; they have bee…

Can you really say "I told you so" when the threads about the IPO were full of people saying "this is a terrible idea, how can I short the stock?"

Re: Groupon Plunges as Board Members Reportedly Leaving

#90
post #48
post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think Enron is actually a good example of what I mean. I maintain that any generally competent professional can have any legitimate accounting practice explained to them. "I don't get it, tell me where these numbers are coming from," will pretty much suffice. Enron's audit committee simply failed to ask the questions (due to laziness or conflicts). Enron's special purpose entities were sitting in the SEC filings wa…

I think you make a good point, but it still leaves open the idea that groupon may have made these changes to combat a (perceived) weakness in the committee.

Nahhh... No one disrupts a company this much unless something significant is coming.

Grab the popcorn folks, the fun is starting.

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