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Groupon Plunges as Board Members Reportedly Leaving

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Re: Groupon Plunges as Board Members Reportedly Leaving

#51

Post by dxbydt »

mcknz wrote: post #23
mikemarotti wrote: post #8

Is it too late to think about shorting this stock?

Yes. Probably no stock available to borrow. There are put options but those are likely already at a premium.

Yeah but he doesn't have to do straight puts. He ca do a synthetic short. The June 9 puts are a dollar, as are the 11 call. So you sell the 11 call & buy the 9 put with the proceeds. Essentially you pay absolutely nothing. On June 12, if grpn stays below $9 you make the difference. If its between $9 and $11 you are ok as well. If its above $11, you cough up the difference. (Am NOT endorsing this trade - just pointing out that it does exist.)

Re: Groupon Plunges as Board Members Reportedly Leaving

#52

Post by moocow01 »

OzzyB wrote: post #50
xxbondsxx wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Rumor has it that Google got a look at their books during the negotiation and cancelled the deal. They publicly gave the story of groupon denying Google to allow them to save face and attract more investors

That's very unnerving if it's true, because, by going along with "Groupon is worth $6bn because Google offered that to us and we turned it down" , implies Google had a hand in creating that extremely high perception before their IPO. If Google did infact have the chance to look at the books (which I'm sure they did), and then allow that "$6bn meme" to circulate -- well, that's evil isn't it?

I'd imagine in those negotiations there are agreements that everyone has to basically be tight lipped even after the deal falls apart. On the flip side, if Google had said too much it might make other business nervous to enter into negotiations with them in the future.

Re: Groupon Plunges as Board Members Reportedly Leaving

#53

Post by wickedchicken »

Mizza wrote: post #35
corin_ wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Back then selling products online was enough to make you a "tech company", it's a very different landscape out there now.

So how many YC companies are "tech companies" by today's definition, then?

Quick question: has YC funded any fabless semiconductor shops? (this isn't snark, I legitimately don't know). That has always been my representative sample of 'a real tech company.' I may be biased though, since I was brought up as an EE :).

Re: Groupon Plunges as Board Members Reportedly Leaving

#54

Post by moron »

OzzyB wrote: post #50
xxbondsxx wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Rumor has it that Google got a look at their books during the negotiation and cancelled the deal. They publicly gave the story of groupon denying Google to allow them to save face and attract more investors

That's very unnerving if it's true, because, by going along with "Groupon is worth $6bn because Google offered that to us and we turned it down" , implies Google had a hand in creating that extremely high perception before their IPO. If Google did infact have the chance to look at the books (which I'm sure they did), and then allow that "$6bn meme" to circulate -- well, that's evil isn't it?

They would have gotten slimed with the evil moniker if they had decided to trash Groupon in the press. Damned if they [do|don't]. Adopting that slogan was one of the dumbest things they ever did, people love to bash them over the head with it.

Re: Groupon Plunges as Board Members Reportedly Leaving

#55

Post by moron »

nollidge wrote: post #15

What I'm wondering: are any of Groupon's competitor's (AmazonLocal, LivingSocial, Google Offers, etc.) more likely to succeed? Or is the business model the biggest problem here?

I wonder the same thing. I have friends working at LivingSocial, but also something about the whole business bothers me, so I'm never sure how to feel. I don't want their company to fail for their sake, but I don't really believe in it.

Re: Groupon Plunges as Board Members Reportedly Leaving

#56

Post by infocaptor »

antr wrote: post #11
mikemarotti wrote: post #8

Is it too late to think about shorting this stock?

Current market cap (equity value) is $6.8bn, with negligible income. It'll be interesting to see how much longer GRPN takes to trade at fundamentals.

They should have taken the $6 billion Google offered and still come out as heroes

Re: Groupon Plunges as Board Members Reportedly Leaving

#57

Post by tomrod »

chrisacky wrote: post #31

Big fat I told you so (to anyone on HN I've predicted this to in the past)... Board Member/Director leaves... and what this signals: [1] Employees Confused. [2] Investors are going to really pissed off. [3] Stock is most likely going to continue to fall. (The signalling from this step down is huge). [4] It hints at possibility that the directors have had something to hide; something has been discovered; they have bee…

Time to short the stock?

Re: Groupon Plunges as Board Members Reportedly Leaving

#58

Post by hdctambien »

corin_ wrote: post #37
Mizza wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So how many YC companies are "tech companies" by today's definition, then?

Good question, and I think the answer has to be subjective. My attempt at an answer: companies that either do things that couldn't be done before they were online because of the nature of the product/service, or where it couldn't be done before because the code has is complex. So pets.com, really they were doing what shops had been doing for years, they just happened to do it online. Reddit on the other hand, there's…

I think by this definition Groupon is a tech company.

Re: Groupon Plunges as Board Members Reportedly Leaving

#59

Post by [deleted] »

corin_ wrote: post #37
Mizza wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So how many YC companies are "tech companies" by today's definition, then?

Good question, and I think the answer has to be subjective. My attempt at an answer: companies that either do things that couldn't be done before they were online because of the nature of the product/service, or where it couldn't be done before because the code has is complex. So pets.com, really they were doing what shops had been doing for years, they just happened to do it online. Reddit on the other hand, there's…

[deleted]

Re: Groupon Plunges as Board Members Reportedly Leaving

#60

Post by usaar333 »

dxbydt wrote: post #51
mcknz wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes. Probably no stock available to borrow. There are put options but those are likely already at a premium.

Yeah but he doesn't have to do straight puts. He ca do a synthetic short. The June 9 puts are a dollar, as are the 11 call. So you sell the 11 call & buy the 9 put with the proceeds. Essentially you pay absolutely nothing. On June 12, if grpn stays below $9 you make the difference. If its between $9 and $11 you are ok as well. If its above $11, you cough up the difference. (Am NOT endorsing this trade - just pointing…

The premium is showing there though. This trade isn't even profitable unless grpn goes below $9 (and even then earnings are only $9-grpn_price). If grpn goes above $11, you lose grpn_price - 11. In other words, this is like shorting, only with $2 less on the upside - and that's where the premium shows. It's cheaper than buying straight puts, but way riskier.

(Also, a lot of brokerages won't allow you to write naked calls)

Disclaimer: I own a few grpn puts.

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