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What happened to the US machine tool industry?

construction-physics.com

131–140 of 226 posts

Re: What happened to the US machine tool industry?

#131

The world is flat. India has ~1.5 billion people and is growing. We need enough precision machine tooling and production capacity for self defense. But world competition is inevitable, and arguably better for the US economy. Our value proposition needs to be something greater than that of other countries. And that's where the economy and employment will thrive and thus support other service sectors.

How will the US economy thrive by outsourcing all the jobs to the billions of people in India?

Sounds like the rich are the only ones who will thrive in this scenario. It will absolutely devastate American workers.

Re: What happened to the US machine tool industry?

#132

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Aiugh. My brain just broke. How does a noob like me learn about these systems. I know it all probably makes sense to the learned. But with my folk (mis)understanding, these claims sound counterintuitive. Thanks. " don't worry, your intuition is right. you are on the right track when you say that your brain broke. you are more learned, or rather, more wise than those guys. because a lot of economics is BS, a hotchpot…

So you declare an entire field as BS and your basis of expertise is a high school class you took and a (probably underpaid and overworked) teacher who couldn’t satisfactorily answer your questions? Dunning-Kruger effect in action.

Further economics classes only pull the curtain farther back on what economics is: applied mathematics and applied sociology combined!

I'm personally undecided on dismissing economics and trying to learn more of it!

Re: What happened to the US machine tool industry?

#133

What was considered high-end precision machining a few decades ago is now standard and easily reproducible in cheap labor markets. For example, guitars made in SKorea used to be a bad joke. Their machining tolerances were too big and too inconsistent. Much like storage and bandwidth what used to be exotic cost-prohibitive is now cheap.

> guitars made in SKorea used to be a bad joke

Are they now considered good guitars??

Re: What happened to the US machine tool industry?

#134
post #121

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Bwahah. How easy was it for a normal American to buy a house, get an education, and get health care (in hours of labor) in 1950 vs now? How about fixing a broken bone? Or getting a basic checkup? Taiwan makes all the fancy chips. Apple designs things, but China makes them. The best cars are generally made in Japan. The vast majority of daily household items come from China. Food comes from the US for the most part, a…

chips, household products....what you're saying is manufacturing has left the US. fungible shitty unnecessary goods have rock bottom prices. costs of things human beings need to live like education/training, health care, food housing have skyrocketed. I completely agree with you that getting off the gold standard and letting a leprechaun like Yellen skyrocket inflation to cover for bad political mistakes, is a terrib…

The Bretton woods change was to allow stimulation of the economy - because things at home were losing momentum (relatively speaking) as other countries manufacturing bases and economies recovered from the damage from WW2. It was a way of keeping the US a few steps ahead.

Printing gold backed dollars quickly doesn’t work very well when you can’t increase the rate of mining gold quickly. Non gold backed dollars are a lot easier.

As long as goods and services can be made cheaper every year, it works well since inflation isn’t felt badly - there aren’t any supply restrictions where something is going to get noticeably too expensive.

All the things I talked about though all have that issue - they can’t be made cheaper somewhere else. someone can only build so many houses in LA before there is literally no more room, and someone building a house in Shanghai doesn’t help anyone in SF live closer to work. Building a new college/university in Vietnam isn’t going to help a kid in Oregon get their degree.

We’ve been exporting inflation because it’s worked. But when other countries stop being so much cheaper, or costs of critical things for the population finally exceed affordability, it doesn’t.

Yellen, Powell, and others are just following the rules and mandate they are given.

Re: What happened to the US machine tool industry?

#136

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> When forced to spin out and stand alone by corporate raiders, those companies were effectively doomed as you just ripped out their ability to do R&D. It would be just as fair to blame the original culture of having vertically integrated conglomerates to begin with. If there is anyone who should be able to figure out how to automate manufacturing with a small number of workers, it should be a bunch of machinists. Bu…

> you can't outsource plumbers and electricians Not yet. Wonder where west would be if politics threw trades to the wolves and kept machinists. Maintain manufacturing prowess and build cheap factories.

who needs to outsource when you can just open the borders.

Re: What happened to the US machine tool industry?

#137

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, exactly. The challenge - alluded to in the article - is that having a functional military requires a domestic manufacturing base and machine tool industry . The U.S. generally tries to keep its arms manufacturing in-house, for obvious national security reasons. But even if you've kept the existing defense contractors alive, you lose out on the ability to repurpose the country's civilian manufacturing base if it…

>Without the ability to quickly tool up, you'll end up defeated in any war of attrition. Why is this a risk? The biggest tool makers in the world are Germany and Japan which are in the US sphere of influence whether they want to or not and are therefore incentivized to sell to the US as many machines it would need to fight a war. The risk for Japan or Germany not wanting to sell tools to the US feels insignificant, a…

Japan and Germany are entirely metric. Pretty much the entire US manufacturing industry, or rather the zombie the pentagon keeps on life support, is in US standard.

That means everything needs to be adjusted or replaced. That's not viable in peace times, it's even less so in times of war.

Obviously this applies primarily to tanks and ships, not planes nor guns.

Re: What happened to the US machine tool industry?

#138

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, exactly. The challenge - alluded to in the article - is that having a functional military requires a domestic manufacturing base and machine tool industry . The U.S. generally tries to keep its arms manufacturing in-house, for obvious national security reasons. But even if you've kept the existing defense contractors alive, you lose out on the ability to repurpose the country's civilian manufacturing base if it…

>Without the ability to quickly tool up, you'll end up defeated in any war of attrition. Why is this a risk? The biggest tool makers in the world are Germany and Japan which are in the US sphere of influence whether they want to or not and are therefore incentivized to sell to the US as many machines it would need to fight a war. The risk for Japan or Germany not wanting to sell tools to the US feels insignificant, a…

It appears the western public's understanding of geopolitical realities is always a decade behind. _Right now_, all of NATO combined can't even outproduce Russia alone. We don't need to be talking hypotheticals, it is literally happening in real time.

plus if a conflict like that occurs then clearly the US has lost significant power. so why would it be a given that American neo-colonies stay on its side?

Re: What happened to the US machine tool industry?

#139

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, exactly. The challenge - alluded to in the article - is that having a functional military requires a domestic manufacturing base and machine tool industry . The U.S. generally tries to keep its arms manufacturing in-house, for obvious national security reasons. But even if you've kept the existing defense contractors alive, you lose out on the ability to repurpose the country's civilian manufacturing base if it…

>Without the ability to quickly tool up, you'll end up defeated in any war of attrition. Why is this a risk? The biggest tool makers in the world are Germany and Japan which are in the US sphere of influence whether they want to or not and are therefore incentivized to sell to the US as many machines it would need to fight a war. The risk for Japan or Germany not wanting to sell tools to the US feels insignificant, a…

That's why (well, one reason why) the U.S. keeps Japan and Germany in its sphere of influence. Same for Saudi Arabia (major oil producer) and Taiwan (major chip producer). Notice that U.S. / Saudi relations soured a fair bit after the U.S. became the largest global oil producer again (thanks to fracking and shale oil). We're a bit less willing to overlook an authoritarian dictatorship when we don't need them.

The challenge with all international relationships is that they're not stable. Germany almost didn't back us on Ukraine, for example, because Russia threatened to cut off the supply of natural gas and make its citizens freeze in the winter of 2022/2023. Only because the NordStream pipeline blew up anyway (an act of sabotage that American journalists have attributed to the U.S.) and the U.S. secured alternate sources of heating for Germany did they back us on Ukraine. Had it been a different regime in power in either the U.S. or Germany, that could've turned out very differently.

Re: What happened to the US machine tool industry?

#140

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>It works great, until the rest of the world decides that it wants to cut out the middleman. Isn't this why the US invests in having the world's biggest military by a long margin, plus the world's most powerful spy agencies? To make sure nobody dares cut them out of their privileged position otherwise they get a dose full of aircraft carriers, F-35 and B-2s after the NSA finds out what their plans is from the spyware…

Yes, exactly. The challenge - alluded to in the article - is that having a functional military requires a domestic manufacturing base and machine tool industry . The U.S. generally tries to keep its arms manufacturing in-house, for obvious national security reasons. But even if you've kept the existing defense contractors alive, you lose out on the ability to repurpose the country's civilian manufacturing base if it…

That’s interesting . Sounds like it will end badly.

I do think the next major war will be nuclear and not one of attrition. America is not going to fight a traditional war it can’t win.

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