Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

What happened to the US machine tool industry?

construction-physics.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

121–130 of 226 posts

Re: What happened to the US machine tool industry?

#121

Post by lazide »

hasty_pudding wrote: post #120
lazide wrote: post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The issue isn’t MBAs. They are just a symptom. What the issue is, is that we’re essentially in the third ‘wave’ of US economic change post WW2 manufacturing boom. Post WW2, the United States was the only manufacturing economy that hadn’t been bombed to smithereens, has not only little to no real debt, but a lot of debtors that would repay them, and had massive amounts of undeveloped land ripe for development, and a m…

> MBA’ism is because long ago the economy switched from ‘actually leaps and bounds ahead of competitors’ to optimization False. Many companies make more money now than ever. American GDP and technology is leaps and bounds ahead of other countries as well. MBA's exist to create shareholder value while fucking the consumer and the laborers as much as possible without getting into trouble. melanine in baby food, and sui…

Bwahah.

How easy was it for a normal American to buy a house, get an education, and get health care (in hours of labor) in 1950 vs now?

How about fixing a broken bone? Or getting a basic checkup?

Taiwan makes all the fancy chips.

Apple designs things, but China makes them.

The best cars are generally made in Japan.

The vast majority of daily household items come from China.

Food comes from the US for the most part, and some random heavy manufacturing and other parts.

The US may have the largest GDP, but that is a measure of turnover - and is supported by the Dollar being the reserve currency.

We’ve been inflating it a lot. And we’ll see what happens.

Re: What happened to the US machine tool industry?

#122

Post by FirmwareBurner »

nostrademons wrote: post #118
specialist wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'd love to understand statements like this. Lemme try: Because trade deficits induce demand for dollars? Like how Japan and now China hold a bajillion US dollars? So if the US had (prolonged) trade surplus, no one would be holding dollars? But wouldn't trade partners still need US dollars to buy US goods? Like the situation post-WWII? So then we'd "loan" partners US dollars to buy our stuff? Aiugh. My brain just bro…

You're on the right track. In a normal, non-reserve-currency situation, the demand for a country's currency is proportional to the demand for its products. After all, that's what you use a currency for: to buy the products that are sold in that currency. This has a well-behaved equilibrium, because if a country produces a lot of good products, that means the value of its currency will rise, which makes goods develope…

>It works great, until the rest of the world decides that it wants to cut out the middleman.

Isn't this why the US invests in having the world's biggest military by a long margin, plus the world's most powerful spy agencies? To make sure nobody dares cut them out of their privileged position otherwise they get a dose full of aircraft carriers, F-35 and B-2s after the NSA finds out what their plans is from the spyware they put in their iPhone.

Re: What happened to the US machine tool industry?

#123

Post by jschveibinz »

The world is flat. India has ~1.5 billion people and is growing. We need enough precision machine tooling and production capacity for self defense. But world competition is inevitable, and arguably better for the US economy. Our value proposition needs to be something greater than that of other countries. And that's where the economy and employment will thrive and thus support other service sectors.

Re: What happened to the US machine tool industry?

#124

Post by cycrutchfield »

fuzztester wrote: post #87
specialist wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'd love to understand statements like this. Lemme try: Because trade deficits induce demand for dollars? Like how Japan and now China hold a bajillion US dollars? So if the US had (prolonged) trade surplus, no one would be holding dollars? But wouldn't trade partners still need US dollars to buy US goods? Like the situation post-WWII? So then we'd "loan" partners US dollars to buy our stuff? Aiugh. My brain just bro…

"Aiugh. My brain just broke. How does a noob like me learn about these systems. I know it all probably makes sense to the learned. But with my folk (mis)understanding, these claims sound counterintuitive. Thanks. " don't worry, your intuition is right. you are on the right track when you say that your brain broke. you are more learned, or rather, more wise than those guys. because a lot of economics is BS, a hotchpot…

So you declare an entire field as BS and your basis of expertise is a high school class you took and a (probably underpaid and overworked) teacher who couldn’t satisfactorily answer your questions?

Dunning-Kruger effect in action.

Re: What happened to the US machine tool industry?

#125

Post by Animats »

jd3 wrote: post #6

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QU6nsfoNWDI for a trip down memory lane (and coincidentally, an apt example of how far we've fallen). Can you think of a single modern US-based industry/association which produces educational, instructional, and/or historical videos like this one anymore?

Yes.[1]

And, after 10,000 hours of apprenticeship, you can make as much as $50,000 to $100,000 a year as a tool and die maker!

I have some entry-level skills at that sort of thing, from my TechShop days. There's a lot of stuff to learn and you have to do a lot of it to get good.

[1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l-7ivFEAzw8

Re: What happened to the US machine tool industry?

#126

Post by nostrademons »

FirmwareBurner wrote: post #122
nostrademons wrote: post #118

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're on the right track. In a normal, non-reserve-currency situation, the demand for a country's currency is proportional to the demand for its products. After all, that's what you use a currency for: to buy the products that are sold in that currency. This has a well-behaved equilibrium, because if a country produces a lot of good products, that means the value of its currency will rise, which makes goods develope…

>It works great, until the rest of the world decides that it wants to cut out the middleman. Isn't this why the US invests in having the world's biggest military by a long margin, plus the world's most powerful spy agencies? To make sure nobody dares cut them out of their privileged position otherwise they get a dose full of aircraft carriers, F-35 and B-2s after the NSA finds out what their plans is from the spyware…

Yes, exactly.

The challenge - alluded to in the article - is that having a functional military requires a domestic manufacturing base and machine tool industry. The U.S. generally tries to keep its arms manufacturing in-house, for obvious national security reasons. But even if you've kept the existing defense contractors alive, you lose out on the ability to repurpose the country's civilian manufacturing base if it doesn't exist. This was pretty critical in WW2: General Motors made more TBM Avengers than Grumman, Chrysler made more tanks than all German manufacturers combined, Kaiser made Liberty Ships by the hundreds. Without the ability to quickly tool up, you'll end up defeated in any war of attrition.

There's a pretty significant risk that we'll find out that the U.S. is a paper tiger if it comes to any sort of prolonged war with a near-peer power.

Re: What happened to the US machine tool industry?

#127

Post by Joel_Mckay »

sct202 wrote: post #113
Joel_Mckay wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The cost of porcelain is similarly constrained by labor, energy cost, and space. I learned a lot from a domestic slip-casting company as a kid. It taught me big heavy things are not economical to ship, and thus remain locally competitive in a global market even when competitors are 100% subsidized. Amazon shifted this calculus a bit, but is still constrained by energy/fuel costs. The power of plastic is automated cyc…

That press you mentioned in an interesting example of the globalization of machine tools. Commissioned by an American company and made in Italy by a Hong Kong Chinese owned company, which now makes them in China.

There is no longer enough domestic infrastructure to fabricate complex equipment within a competitive budget.

Re: What happened to the US machine tool industry?

#128

Post by FirmwareBurner »

nostrademons wrote: post #126
FirmwareBurner wrote: post #122

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>It works great, until the rest of the world decides that it wants to cut out the middleman. Isn't this why the US invests in having the world's biggest military by a long margin, plus the world's most powerful spy agencies? To make sure nobody dares cut them out of their privileged position otherwise they get a dose full of aircraft carriers, F-35 and B-2s after the NSA finds out what their plans is from the spyware…

Yes, exactly. The challenge - alluded to in the article - is that having a functional military requires a domestic manufacturing base and machine tool industry . The U.S. generally tries to keep its arms manufacturing in-house, for obvious national security reasons. But even if you've kept the existing defense contractors alive, you lose out on the ability to repurpose the country's civilian manufacturing base if it…

>Without the ability to quickly tool up, you'll end up defeated in any war of attrition.

Why is this a risk? The biggest tool makers in the world are Germany and Japan which are in the US sphere of influence whether they want to or not and are therefore incentivized to sell to the US as many machines it would need to fight a war.

The risk for Japan or Germany not wanting to sell tools to the US feels insignificant, as they aren't in a position of power to refuse to play ball.

Re: What happened to the US machine tool industry?

#129

Post by jimt1234 »

FirmwareBurner wrote: post #122
nostrademons wrote: post #118

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're on the right track. In a normal, non-reserve-currency situation, the demand for a country's currency is proportional to the demand for its products. After all, that's what you use a currency for: to buy the products that are sold in that currency. This has a well-behaved equilibrium, because if a country produces a lot of good products, that means the value of its currency will rise, which makes goods develope…

>It works great, until the rest of the world decides that it wants to cut out the middleman. Isn't this why the US invests in having the world's biggest military by a long margin, plus the world's most powerful spy agencies? To make sure nobody dares cut them out of their privileged position otherwise they get a dose full of aircraft carriers, F-35 and B-2s after the NSA finds out what their plans is from the spyware…

I heard this was the real reason the US took out Saddam Hussein. Basically, Saddam had been saying for years that he wanted Iraq to abandon the dollar for trading its oil. If he was successful at this, other Arab Nations would most likely do the same. This wasn't acceptable to the powers in the US, so the US tax payers funded the war in Iraq to send a message to other nations: Don't even think of abandoning the dollar.

Not sure if there's any truth to that at all, but it's at least believable.

Re: What happened to the US machine tool industry?

#130

Post by hasty_pudding »

lazide wrote: post #121
hasty_pudding wrote: post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> MBA’ism is because long ago the economy switched from ‘actually leaps and bounds ahead of competitors’ to optimization False. Many companies make more money now than ever. American GDP and technology is leaps and bounds ahead of other countries as well. MBA's exist to create shareholder value while fucking the consumer and the laborers as much as possible without getting into trouble. melanine in baby food, and sui…

Bwahah. How easy was it for a normal American to buy a house, get an education, and get health care (in hours of labor) in 1950 vs now? How about fixing a broken bone? Or getting a basic checkup? Taiwan makes all the fancy chips. Apple designs things, but China makes them. The best cars are generally made in Japan. The vast majority of daily household items come from China. Food comes from the US for the most part, a…

chips, household products....what you're saying is manufacturing has left the US.

fungible shitty unnecessary goods have rock bottom prices. costs of things human beings need to live like education/training, health care, food housing have skyrocketed.

I completely agree with you that getting off the gold standard and letting a leprechaun like Yellen skyrocket inflation to cover for bad political mistakes, is a terrible idea and 1971 is a huge inflection point in United States on numerous economic graphs and indicators, as we've both seen the website.

Keep in mind the late 60s were also when immigration started it's upward trajectory as well with the 1965 immigration act, and now we're letting in the equivalent of an entire new U.S. state every year.

Post reply on HN