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What happened to the US machine tool industry?

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111–120 of 226 posts

Re: What happened to the US machine tool industry?

#111

Right, it seems the U.S. economy is trying to say, "making elementary machine tools is beneath us." The important bit is at the end: the U.S. is still a top buyer of machine tools (made elsewhere). Is the same thing to happen with software? When it becomes worth the time of the U.S. economy to produce basic machine tools again, they'll get to create new machine tools factories using all the latest technology: so it i…

Right. The US economy was well poised to tackle the massive task of computerizing humanity and, being a nascent technology stack with green field opportunities abounding, it was more profitable than continuing to produce machine tools. Meanwhile the Pax Americana has eliminated the risk premium to manufacturing overseas, so our entire economy has reconfigured itself around this task and opportunity of computerizing h…

The entire economy is configured around making quarterly profits for shareholders. Any good that happens to come out for humanity is purely incidental. The US economy is not some fairytale hero.

Re: What happened to the US machine tool industry?

#112

Right, it seems the U.S. economy is trying to say, "making elementary machine tools is beneath us." The important bit is at the end: the U.S. is still a top buyer of machine tools (made elsewhere). Is the same thing to happen with software? When it becomes worth the time of the U.S. economy to produce basic machine tools again, they'll get to create new machine tools factories using all the latest technology: so it i…

> Is the same thing to happen with software? I have a theory that one of the major challenges facing manufacturing in the US is actually the opposite. A manufacturing company in the US is competing for smart, numerate STEM graduates with the likes of Google who offer graduates $180,000 with zero experience (or so I'm told) But they're also competing with manufacturers in the far east, where $40,000 is a great salary,…

I think that’s right, and I think there’s a third aspect at play, which is that culturally the US doesn’t value jobs in manufacturing, machining, engineering, etc. as highly as it once did (after WW2, say) or as highly as it values finance and tech jobs today. I’m not sure how easily that could change.

Re: What happened to the US machine tool industry?

#113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Value blindness is the bane of my existence. Thin walled plastic everywhere. Things are difficult to clean because they are filled with grooves, because you need grooves and bends to make thin walled plastic stiffer. A very good criteria for quality and value is: how easy is it to clean? If it is hard then you probably are dealing with a low value disposable product. Consider porcelain, lasts forever, cleans beautifu…

The cost of porcelain is similarly constrained by labor, energy cost, and space. I learned a lot from a domestic slip-casting company as a kid. It taught me big heavy things are not economical to ship, and thus remain locally competitive in a global market even when competitors are 100% subsidized. Amazon shifted this calculus a bit, but is still constrained by energy/fuel costs. The power of plastic is automated cyc…

That press you mentioned in an interesting example of the globalization of machine tools. Commissioned by an American company and made in Italy by a Hong Kong Chinese owned company, which now makes them in China.

Re: What happened to the US machine tool industry?

#114

> Constant pressure to hit quarterly performance targets meant that machine quality often suffered. In some cases, machines would be shipped out the door unfinished so the delivery could be booked, and assembly would be completed by service technicians at the customer’s location. In his history of the American machine tool industry, Albert Albrecht states that “the actions of these larger corporations and conglomerat…

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Re: What happened to the US machine tool industry?

#115

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> When forced to spin out and stand alone by corporate raiders, those companies were effectively doomed as you just ripped out their ability to do R&D. It would be just as fair to blame the original culture of having vertically integrated conglomerates to begin with. If there is anyone who should be able to figure out how to automate manufacturing with a small number of workers, it should be a bunch of machinists. Bu…

> you can't outsource plumbers and electricians You can outsource trades (that's literally what almost every general contractor builder does->outsource specialist trades to subcontractors). You can't off-shore them (or at least not nearly so easily and completely).

AR enables offshoring the smarts at least, you treat the person at the location of the work as if they were a robot ... until the robots get good enough, I guess ...

Re: What happened to the US machine tool industry?

#116
post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Constant pressure to hit quarterly performance targets meant that machine quality often suffered. It’s not necessarily the case that greedy, ignorant MBAs came in and ruined everything. Like, if their practices were so inferior, then any domestic firm that didn’t get taken over by them should’ve had a leg up and could’ve dominated the domestic market. Don’t you think the more likely source of “pressure” was the int…

> It’s not necessarily the case that greedy, ignorant MBAs came in and ruined everything. Like, if their practices were so inferior, then any domestic firm that didn’t get taken over by them should’ve had a leg up and could’ve dominated the domestic market. In this instance, it was people like Icahn. Machine tools were a very cyclical market. Consequently, they did well as part of a vertically integrated conglomerate…

> However, to be fair, NOBODY had any answer to the fact that manufacturing automated and could get by on two orders of magnitude fewer employees.

Hasn't the answer been tons more products being made? More product designers, more tool manufacturers, more people in charge of designing factories, more automation engineers, more robotics engineers?

More people supporting those products, more people in sales, more people doing packaging design, logo design, and so on and so forth.

(None of this is environmentally sustainable, separate discussion!)

Re: What happened to the US machine tool industry?

#117

> A strong dollar made imports even cheaper by comparison I think that summarizes the article. It has been cheaper to import, so we do. The strong dollar policy supports some industries at the expense of others.

To quote economist Brad Delong: "... tax cuts created a half decade of deficit, boosting need for government debt which attracted foreign capital and helping to send a false signal to Midwest manufacturers to shrink starting the hollowing out of what became Rust Belt."

I think in the long term (and maybe short term) we will live to regret this error.

Re: What happened to the US machine tool industry?

#118

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is the answer to all American manufacturing woes. The dollar as a reserve currency gives the US a ton of global leverage but requires a trade deficit thus it comes at the expense of domestic industries.

I'd love to understand statements like this. Lemme try: Because trade deficits induce demand for dollars? Like how Japan and now China hold a bajillion US dollars? So if the US had (prolonged) trade surplus, no one would be holding dollars? But wouldn't trade partners still need US dollars to buy US goods? Like the situation post-WWII? So then we'd "loan" partners US dollars to buy our stuff? Aiugh. My brain just bro…

You're on the right track.

In a normal, non-reserve-currency situation, the demand for a country's currency is proportional to the demand for its products. After all, that's what you use a currency for: to buy the products that are sold in that currency. This has a well-behaved equilibrium, because if a country produces a lot of good products, that means the value of its currency will rise, which makes goods developed in that country relatively more expensive, which cuts demand, until everything equilibrates at a point which is roughly reflective of the actual quality and productivity of the country.

In a reserve-currency situation, the currency is used for many things other than buying the products of the country. For example, oil is priced in dollars; if India wants to buy oil from Saudi Arabia, it needs dollars to make the transaction, and then Saudi Arabia has an excess of dollars. Frequently it uses these to buy U.S. T-bills or invest in American tech startups like Uber or WeWork, both other sources of demand for dollars. The dollar is basically the currency of the global financial system: instead of directly converting rupee to riyal, you convert rupee to dollars, handle your transaction, and then convert dollars to riyal.

This creates a large source of demand for dollars outside of the traditional market for a national currency. Indeed, America's export here is basically financial services, which as a sector has been doing great since 1990, one of the few areas where you're likely to get paid handsomely. The other area is tech, which at its core is about enabling these cross-border commerce flows - Amazon, Google, Facebook, UpWork, Stripe, CoinBase, Ripple, Stellar, PayPal, E-bay, Shopify, AirBnB are all about creating global marketplaces where you can buy anything from anywhere.

Finance and tech crowd out everthing else that you would normally use dollars for. Basically America has specialized in being the global marketplace - it's only purpose is to be the common standard that every other country needs to transact in. Because there's so much demand for dollars simply to do international transactions, it pushes the price of the dollar up. This makes everybody who's trying to sell actual things in dollars (rather than take a commission when other people sell things in dollars) uncompetitive.

It works great, until the rest of the world decides that it wants to cut out the middleman. At that point, since we don't produce anything anymore, we're screwed. America's basically given itself Dutch Disease, where our only viable industry is financial services.

Re: What happened to the US machine tool industry?

#119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Is the same thing to happen with software? Offshoring in software development has been around for a very long time. Most large US companies have a mix of onshore and offshore devs. The more mundane the software, and the tighter the financial macro-environment, the more the ratio shifts toward offshoring. This is the way the offshoring cycle has worked for a long time. However, unlike hardware, software is about inf…

> I have seen firsthand that non-US teams building software for US consumers often don't quite understand the reasoning behind the requirements and may lack polish around basic things like English Something I'm curious about, have you seen this happen with countries culturally close to the US? Like teams based in Canada, Ireland, or the UK?

One of the biggest lies in cultural thinking is that countries like Ireland and the UK are "culturally close" to the USA. Sure they are close-er than say Italy or Japan, but anyone who thinks "close" means "similar enough that it doesn't matter" is in for a rude awakening.

In reality there are incredibly large gaps around even the most basic things like the meaning of words. As a very basic example: the meaning of the word "interesting" differs radically between cultures. Most US employees would think the boss is indeed interested when they describe an idea as "interesting" and may even bring it up again at some later date after more research. Meanwhile, someone from the UK means that it's the dumbest thing they've ever heard and they will be incredibly miffed if it is ever brought up again.

Re: What happened to the US machine tool industry?

#120
post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> techniques for optimizing for quality and cost Some of those techniques: 1. hiring each other and bloating bureaucracy in healthcare and education and other industries jacking up prices that werent expensive before 2. come up with ideas like 'shrinkflation' and 'planned obsolescence 3. reducing quality and making products unrepairable so we have massive waste in landfills and things like a giant pacific garbage pat…

The issue isn’t MBAs. They are just a symptom. What the issue is, is that we’re essentially in the third ‘wave’ of US economic change post WW2 manufacturing boom. Post WW2, the United States was the only manufacturing economy that hadn’t been bombed to smithereens, has not only little to no real debt, but a lot of debtors that would repay them, and had massive amounts of undeveloped land ripe for development, and a m…

> MBA’ism is because long ago the economy switched from ‘actually leaps and bounds ahead of competitors’ to optimization

False. Many companies make more money now than ever. American GDP and technology is leaps and bounds ahead of other countries as well.

MBA's exist to create shareholder value while fucking the consumer and the laborers as much as possible without getting into trouble.

melanine in baby food, and suicide nets outside of factories, for example, are cost optimization strategies that didnt work out.

I can just picture an MBA running the cost/benefit numbers in an excel spreadsheet comparing treating the workers better versus putting suicide nets outside the windows.

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