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What happened to the US machine tool industry?

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Re: What happened to the US machine tool industry?

#91
post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Constant pressure to hit quarterly performance targets meant that machine quality often suffered. It’s not necessarily the case that greedy, ignorant MBAs came in and ruined everything. Like, if their practices were so inferior, then any domestic firm that didn’t get taken over by them should’ve had a leg up and could’ve dominated the domestic market. Don’t you think the more likely source of “pressure” was the int…

> It’s not necessarily the case that greedy, ignorant MBAs came in and ruined everything. Like, if their practices were so inferior, then any domestic firm that didn’t get taken over by them should’ve had a leg up and could’ve dominated the domestic market. In this instance, it was people like Icahn. Machine tools were a very cyclical market. Consequently, they did well as part of a vertically integrated conglomerate…

Great points.

Riffing on your last remark, the federal labor statistics list of Ohio occupations with the highest location quotients (prevalence in that area divided by prevalence of the same occupation nationwide) still shows machine tools related professions near the top. Surely that cluster of expertise would be in even greater demand if the national economy were to grow in that direction.

May 2022

Engine and Other Machine Assemblers 4.21

Multiple Machine Tool Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and Plastic 3.79

Patternmakers, Metal and Plastic 3.23

Forging Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and Plastic 2.99

Heat Treating Equipment Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and Plastic 2.91

Tool and Die Makers 2.81

Grinding, Lapping, Polishing, and Buffing Machine Tool Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and Plastic 2.75

Sewers, Hand 2.71

Cutting, Punching, and Press Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and Plastic 2.70

Model Makers, Metal and Plastic 2.64

Re: What happened to the US machine tool industry?

#92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is the answer to all American manufacturing woes. The dollar as a reserve currency gives the US a ton of global leverage but requires a trade deficit thus it comes at the expense of domestic industries.

I'd love to understand statements like this. Lemme try: Because trade deficits induce demand for dollars? Like how Japan and now China hold a bajillion US dollars? So if the US had (prolonged) trade surplus, no one would be holding dollars? But wouldn't trade partners still need US dollars to buy US goods? Like the situation post-WWII? So then we'd "loan" partners US dollars to buy our stuff? Aiugh. My brain just bro…

> So then we'd "loan" partners US dollars to buy our stuff?

Other way around, they buy T-bonds -- i.e., "loan" dollars to the US Government. But the country is still owed that money back - it's like a trillion dollar bank account. One could say China "lends" dollars to the Treasury, but it's also just as accurate to say they "deposit" dollars into the Treasury. It's all just words to describe the action of giving money to another party to hold onto temporarily.

"Strong" currency means there's more demand for it. Demand is usually a function of what you can buy with the currency.

When countries reinvest their dollars into T-Bonds, they are double dipping on establishing demand for dollars. On one hand, they are owed back the dollars handed over to the Treasury (thus, creating future demand for USD), and on the other, accepting USD for the sales of their goods/services induces demand for USD, since it is yet another good that can be purchased with USD.

"Weak" currency means that there's less demand for it. Weak currencies tend to be those from countries that produce little in the way of goods and services, or they only produce commodities (like oil) that are generally traded in other currencies.

A weak currency can be a benefit. Hence why so many countries seek to artificially weaken their currency (aka currency manipulation). They often do this by strengthening the the USD. Sell to the USA, accept USD from foreign trade partners, buy T-Bonds with excess currency. The market for USD is so damn big that this is often trivial to do unnoticed, like using ocean to fill a swimming pool. But economies like Japan and China eventually grew to the point where their currency manipulation had a meaningful impact on the USD and American economy, rising the ire of American politicians. You can read about the Japanese "lost decade" which was suspected to be the result of American politicians intentionally targeting the Japanese economy due to currency manipulation and a general fear that the Japanese would "take over the world." (you can see these fears highlighted in 80s movies)

> How does a noob like me learn about these systems.

Take an economics class. Eco 101 is kind of trash for understanding anything truly useful. But at higher levels, you get into mathematical models for the underlying systems that govern trade. Granted, it's a little more hand-wavy, since economists can't conduct experiments at the scale that physicists can. But there is generally some experimental data supporting the models (it just might be data collected on college students trading candy bars).

You can read about what happened to the Swiss economy during the pandemic. They are a smaller economy that's been plagued by an absurdly strong currency. There's been a lot of reporting and research into the many factors contributing to the currency's strength as well as the impacts it has had on such a small country.

Re: What happened to the US machine tool industry?

#93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The MBA philosophy vs the craftsman philosophy differ vastly.

MBAs are taught techniques for optimizing for quality and cost. It's not always an either/or decision. Even when it is an either/or situation, sometimes it's better to build a product that is half the price for a quarter of the lifespan. A buyer who will use a tool for 30 hours doesn't really care if the service life of a tool has been reduced from 1000 hours to 250 if the price is halved.

> techniques for optimizing for quality and cost

Some of those techniques:

1. hiring each other and bloating bureaucracy in healthcare and education and other industries jacking up prices that werent expensive before

2. come up with ideas like 'shrinkflation' and 'planned obsolescence

3. reducing quality and making products unrepairable so we have massive waste in landfills and things like a giant pacific garbage patch

4. purchasing quality brands , parasiting the brand name, and making the actual product shitty

5. hollowing out every industry in quality and jobs...making private equity monopolies so theres no competition and then hiring more MBAs.

What you call 'optimizing quality and cost' I call 'trying the fuck the consumer to the maximum amount without them noticing'. But, to be fair, those are the same thing.

Just my observations. Capitalism is becoming a zombie and MBAs are the cordyceps.

Re: What happened to the US machine tool industry?

#94
post #57

> Consider a company that manufactures its product on lathes. Assume that it has ten lathes that can just meet production requirements. Assume also that each lathe wears out in ten years and that the company has its investment plans so well organized that one lathe is replaced every year. Now consider what will happen if there is a 10 percent increase in demand for the product. The plant will need eleven lathes to me…

Do lathes actually wear out? Machine tools are built like tanks and could probably last until the end of time, you just need to replace the bearings and motors occasionally.

If they did not; we would not have the entire art of scraping [0]

Yes, if meticulously maintained and lightly used some can last a good while. In a less pristine environment, say where deadlines need to get met, they wear out unevenly, for lathes, the ways near the headstock usually see more work than the tailstock end. So, the machine now cuts a taper when it is suppose to cut parallel.

[0] https://duckduckgo.com/?t=lm&q=scraping+machine+tools&ia=web

Re: What happened to the US machine tool industry?

#95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Constant pressure to hit quarterly performance targets meant that machine quality often suffered. It’s not necessarily the case that greedy, ignorant MBAs came in and ruined everything. Like, if their practices were so inferior, then any domestic firm that didn’t get taken over by them should’ve had a leg up and could’ve dominated the domestic market. Don’t you think the more likely source of “pressure” was the int…

> Like, if their practices were so inferior, then any domestic firm that didn’t get taken over by them should’ve had a leg up and could’ve dominated the domestic market. There aren't infinite firms. Plus in the article, the previous paragraph goes into how the tooling industry was being bought up by conglomerates so the finite firms became even easier to count. A company fitting your argument is Telsa. The existing f…

The main way for countries with higher wages to compete is through automation. You can't supply 1000 laborers at $2/hour, but you can supply five skilled mechanics at $50/hour.

The problem with this is that the 1000 people who had been doing the labor in the US for $25/hour don't want that to happen any more than they want it to move offshore, and they're the people with the skills to ensure the automation goes smoothly. So they resist and then lose to offshore manufacturing rather than domestic automation.

Which in turn causes the US to lose even more manufacturing jobs, because now that factory is in Asia and it's more economical for its inputs and outputs to be other factories in Asia.

The way out of this is to make sure domestic barriers to entry are low, so that you get more new domestic companies like Tesla that aren't stuck in this trap. Right now that isn't the case and Tesla is an exception that got there on hype and eccentric leadership, whereas what you really want is for domestic small businesses to be able to eat the lazy incumbent's lunch long before China does, and indeed to be able to eat the Chinese company's lunch by replacing a thousand low-wage workers with a handful of high-paid specialists.

Re: What happened to the US machine tool industry?

#96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sounds like commie gobbledygook. (RIP Norm MacDonald, the thinking mans comedian!)

It's basic macro. Assets, exports, capital accounts, current accounts, savings, investment. Essentially, windfall surplus in one area causes savings bubbles causes investment bubbles causes asset pumps and export dumps, usually in a different area. He cites a bunch of historical examples and then goes step by step through techniques for identifying sources/sinks and directionality. Oh, and did you know that Ricardo b…

> If you dogmatically reject the idea that political economy could possibly involve the concept of class,

Class is a suitcase word that may refer to different ways of classifying people but often does not clarify which dimensions and clusters are being used in a particular context. Maybe Pettis does a better job than other authors. Perhaps you or the sibling comment author can provide an example?

Re: What happened to the US machine tool industry?

#97
post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'd say MBAs driving for quarterly numbers were unable to manage the business cycle is a better summary.

This is as empty as saying trade unions caused it. Does Japan not have MBAs? It's all about comparative advantage.

Apparently Japan's MBAs can manage for longer term. At least in this one industry.

Re: What happened to the US machine tool industry?

#98
post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'd say MBAs driving for quarterly numbers were unable to manage the business cycle is a better summary.

This is as empty as saying trade unions caused it. Does Japan not have MBAs? It's all about comparative advantage.

From what I've heard, Japan has very different corporate culture, more focused on loyalty and social stability, than on maximizing profit. They can even keep unprofitable divisions of the company, because they don't want to fire people who work in them.

Would be nice if someone with first-hand knowledge of Japanese corporate world could confirm/deny it.

Re: What happened to the US machine tool industry?

#99
First thought, being in the aerospace advanced composites field and using machine tools: "MBAs"

Aaaand, the money quote:

" In his history of the American machine tool industry, Albert Albrecht states that “the actions of these larger corporations and conglomerates, under the leadership of financial MBA’s, perhaps more than any other factor, contributed to the restructuring and decline of the US machine tool industry at the end of the 20th century.” "

MBAs & financial "leadership" have basically optimized American excellence, leadership, and its middle class out of existence, and putting the world's democracies in jeopardy.

They benefitted greatly by privatizing and optimizing profits into their pockets, but at the cost of nearly breaking the society onto whom they externalized the costs.

Re: What happened to the US machine tool industry?

#100
post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Constant pressure to hit quarterly performance targets meant that machine quality often suffered. It’s not necessarily the case that greedy, ignorant MBAs came in and ruined everything. Like, if their practices were so inferior, then any domestic firm that didn’t get taken over by them should’ve had a leg up and could’ve dominated the domestic market. Don’t you think the more likely source of “pressure” was the int…

> It’s not necessarily the case that greedy, ignorant MBAs came in and ruined everything. Like, if their practices were so inferior, then any domestic firm that didn’t get taken over by them should’ve had a leg up and could’ve dominated the domestic market. In this instance, it was people like Icahn. Machine tools were a very cyclical market. Consequently, they did well as part of a vertically integrated conglomerate…

> When forced to spin out and stand alone by corporate raiders, those companies were effectively doomed as you just ripped out their ability to do R&D.

It would be just as fair to blame the original culture of having vertically integrated conglomerates to begin with.

If there is anyone who should be able to figure out how to automate manufacturing with a small number of workers, it should be a bunch of machinists. But you put them in a lumbering conglomerate and teach them that automation is the enemy because it will take their jobs. Then they take that same attitude into a smaller company that has to be leaner in order to survive and you've set them up for failure.

Whereas if you embrace it, instead of domestic buyers getting their goods from cheap labor in China, domestic and international buyers get their goods from automated domestic factories that employ fewer people per unit but make more units than ever before because they have globally competitive prices and the global demand when you can supply at a low price is enormous.

> Nobody in Cleveland gives a shit about whether someone in Africa is doing better when they can't make their house payment.

But the reason they can't make their house payment is the same kind of regulatory capture that they supported and caused them to lose their job, which in turn makes housing unaffordable because you can't outsource plumbers and electricians.

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