Earlier quoted context omitted.
I oppose regulating what calculations humans may perform in the strongest possible terms.
Ten years ago, even five years ago, I would have said exactly the same thing. I am extremely pro-FOSS. Forget the particulars for just a moment. Forget arguments about the probability of the existential risk, whatever your personal assessment of that risk is. Can we agree that people should not be able to unilaterally take existential risks with the future of humanity without the consent of humanity, based solely on…
Many AI safety orgs have tried to criminalize currently-existing open-source AI
361–370 of 405 posts
Re: Many AI safety orgs have tried to criminalize currently-existing open-source AI
#362Earlier quoted context omitted.
The spirit of copyright in the United States is not about protecting labor conditions. It is about promoting innovation in arts and sciences. > The Congress shall have Power ... to promote the Progress of Science and useful Arts, by securing for limited Times to Authors and Inventors the exclusive Right to their respective Writings and Discoveries. - United States Constitution, Article I, Section 8, clause 8
My point is not about the precise definition of copyright, it's about how AI systems undermine the rights of creators.
Re: Many AI safety orgs have tried to criminalize currently-existing open-source AI
#363Earlier quoted context omitted.
They declare that - but I could also declare I'm trying to build a nuclear bomb (n.b. I'm not). Whether people are likely to try and stop me, or try and apply some legal non-proliferation framework, is partly influenced by whether they believe what I'm claiming is realistic (it's not - I have a workshop, but no fissile material). Nobody gets too worried about me doing something which would be awful, but the general c…
It is surely better to have regulation now than scramble to catch up if ago is possible.
Re: Many AI safety orgs have tried to criminalize currently-existing open-source AI
#364Earlier quoted context omitted.
My point is not about the precise definition of copyright, it's about how AI systems undermine the rights of creators.
My point is that the rights of creators, while important, are not the purpose of copyright.
Re: Many AI safety orgs have tried to criminalize currently-existing open-source AI
#365AI safety people are hypocrites. If they practiced what they preached, they'd be calling for all AI to be banned, ala Dune. There are AI harms that don't care about whether or not the weights are available, and are playing out today. I'm talking about the ability of any AI system to obfuscate plagiarism[0] and spam the Internet with technically distinct rewords of the same text. This is currently the most lucrative u…
Re: Many AI safety orgs have tried to criminalize currently-existing open-source AI
#366There is a bigger reason why the end of open source AI might be close: as soon as training data becomes licensed, that’s it for open source AI. Poof. I wish I could be more eloquent on this point, but I’ve mostly just been depressed about this seeming inevitability. Hopefully it won’t be the case. But how could it be otherwise? Hundreds of thousands of people are mad at openai and midjourney for doing exactly what op…
The people making the decisions these days are too drunk.
Re: Many AI safety orgs have tried to criminalize currently-existing open-source AI
#367Earlier quoted context omitted.
AI safety / x-risk folks have in fact made extensive and detailed arguments. Occasionally, folks arguing against them rise to the same standard. But most of the arguments against AI safety look a lot more like name-calling and derision: "nuh-uh, that's sci-fi and unrealistic (mic drop)". That's not a counterargument. > If we're talking about nuclear weapons, for example, the tech is clear, the pattern of human behavi…
I understand your point, I think - and certainly I don't want to go anywhere near name-calling or derision, that doesn't help anyone. But I am reminded of arguments I've had with creationists (I am not comparing you with them, but sometimes the general tone of the debate). It seems like one side is making an extraordinary claim, and then demanding the other side rebut it, and that's not something that seems reasonabl…
Characterizing your opponent's argument as an appeal to "underpants gnomes" struck me as derisive, if you don't mind my saying.
If space ships operated by an alien civilization appeared in orbit above Earth, wouldn't that constitute a potent danger? I'd say it certainly would because the aliens might be (and probably were if they could travel here) better at science and technology than we are. The AI labs by the own admission are trying to create an alien intelligence as good at science and technology as possible. Yes, they're probably at least a decade or two away from "succeeding" at creating one better at science and technology than well-funded teams of humans are, but the AI labs might surprise us (and surprise themselves) by "succeeding" much sooner : everyone including I'm sure the researchers at OpenAI were surprised when GPT-4 was able to score in the 90th percentile on the bar exam.
Because even the researchers creating these frontier models don't understand them well enough to say for sure that the next model they spend hundreds of millions of dollars of GPU time training will exceed human ability in something dangerous like inventing new military technologies, the time to stop creating new large frontier models is now.
GPT-4 has a lot of knowledge of the world, but it is much less capable than a human is (and more to the point, than a capable human organization like the FBI or Microsoft is) at devising plans able to withstand determined human opposition. One of the things I'm worried about is new models that are much better at such a planning task _and_ have lots of knowledge about things like physics and human nature. One reason to worry that such a new model is not far off is that AlphaZero is better than humans at creating plans that can withstand determined human opposition (but of course AlphaZero has no knowledge of and in fact no way of obtaining knowledge of any part of reality beyond a Go board).
Re: Many AI safety orgs have tried to criminalize currently-existing open-source AI
#368Earlier quoted context omitted.
TBQH, most of the AI safety x-risk arguments — different than just "AI safety" arguments in the sense that non-x-risk issues don't seem worth banning AI development over — are generally pretty high on the hypotheticals. If you feel the x-risk arguments aren't pretty hypothetical, can you: 1. Summarize a good argument here, or 2. Link to someone else's good argument? I feel like hand-waving the question away and sayin…
Consider a world in which AI existential risk is real: where at some point AI systems become dramatically more capable than human minds, in a way that has catastrophic consequences for humanity. What would you expect this world to look like, say, five years before the AI systems become more capable than humans? How (if at all) would it differ from the world we are actually in? What arguments (if any) would anyone be…
I think what's really throwing people off about AI safety - including myself - is that people are arguing that the models themselves hold the x-risk. Problem is, there's no plausible way for a superhuman intelligence to 'bust out of its cage' using text output to a human reader alone[1]. Someone has to decide to hook it up to stuff, and that's where the regulation should be.
But that's also usually where the AI safety people stop talking, and the AI ethics people start.
[0] GPT is, at the very least, superhuman at generating text that is statistically identical to, if not copied outright from, existing publicly-available text.
[1] If there is, STOP, call the SCP Foundation immediately.
Re: Many AI safety orgs have tried to criminalize currently-existing open-source AI
#369Earlier quoted context omitted.
Ok so propensity and outcome: Propensity: Risk doesn't imply a guarantee of a bad outcome. It means "if you put your five year old in the sea, their risk goes up". It doesn't mean "they will definitely die". Risk up. Not 100%, just a lot higher. Outcome: The risk isn't that we'll all die, it's that we'll be overtaken and lose control, after which all bets are off. We lose the ability to influence the future. We put a…
It sounds like we're in agreement that banning current-gen open source LLMs is counterproductive. In terms of "risk" and "outcome," I do think you're making some implicit assumptions that I don't share, and change our long-term outlook on AI; for example, the idea that training a model to generate tokens that accurately reflect human writing will result in "a totally alien being smarter than us" is a non-obvious leap…
No chance LLM's will get us there, I'm referring mostly to the general drive to reach AGI. I spend some of my mental cycles trying to think about what we're missing with the current tech (continuous learning, access to much wider resources than one web page of context at a time, can we use compression, graphs etc). It's a great problem to think about, but we may just totally hose ourselves when we get it right. What do I tell my kid - sorry honey, it was such fun, but now we need to hide under this rock. Model totally said it was nice and kind and trustworthy, but we showed it some human history and it went postal in self-defence.
Alignment only works up until it starts really thinking for itself. It absolutely might not be as stupid as humans are, no caveman tribal instincts. But we'd be relying on hope at that point, because control will not work. If anything it'd probably be counterproductive.