One thing that's very likely to happen is that major economies (US, EU, China, India, etc.) will start to isolate. Because AI will have such a profound effect on the competitiveness of companies and the regulatory environment between these blocks will be so different their respective companies are all potentially at risk. Within months let's say a US based and entirely AI run company could quickly supplant all European companies in the same field because the respective European companies don't have the computing power or expertise to compete or can't fire the now redundant workers due to some trade union influence. Rather than allowing all those European companies to be replaced there will be intense lobbying to effectively shut out any non-EU companies. AI will effectively end globalization with the exception of basic commodities trading.
AI Will Transform the Global Economy. Let's Make Sure It Benefits Humanity
51–60 of 76 posts
Re: AI Will Transform the Global Economy. Let's Make Sure It Benefits Humanity
#52AI runs on electricity, which we can produce a joule directly of for much cheaper than we can produce a joule of food to feed a human on. This is a fundamental consequence of thermodynamics. It will eventually require us to ask ourselves whether we are willing to arbitrarily prioritize our own species over the cheaper to run alternative. We human beings, however, have both the first mover advantage and a natural inst…
Ask ourselves? Who is us? Your comment doesn’t apply if everyone has access to their own local AGI. Right now training is expensive and inference is cheap. There’s no reason to believe that inference cost will suddenly balloon when we cross the line to general intelligence.
It's easier to understand if you flip the perspective. The AGI has access to you.
Re: AI Will Transform the Global Economy. Let's Make Sure It Benefits Humanity
#53Cynical view: without new regulation in the area of AI, it will reduce the value of labor in many domains and completely eliminate the need for it in many others. Profits will go to companies like OpenAI, unemployment will rise and people will be left to fend for themselves, and it's exactly what's going to happen.
Realistic view: Unemployment is actually at an all time low despite centuries of industrialization, automation, etc. AI technology is becoming a commodity at a rapid rate. OpenAI has some nice data moat but their tech is being copied left right and center and much of what they do has been replicated successfully by others; including some open source projects. I don't see OpenAI end up with all the profit here. AI is…
> Realistic view: Unemployment is actually at an all time low despite centuries of industrialization, automation, etc.
A key word is "centuries" - previously this industrialisation was not such a rapid process (took centuries indeed) - people had time to reskill and new generations didn't pursue professions of their parents if those jobs got automated.
This time it's more possible that someone who is going to college this year, graduate in 5 years then maybe will work 5 years to find out their professions got completely automated 10 years from now.
Re: AI Will Transform the Global Economy. Let's Make Sure It Benefits Humanity
#54If what I do as a seasoned software engineer becomes redundant because of "artificial intelligence", so be it. Then I'll need to learn more, which I am! I'm not in the business of stiffening technology like an oil baron. I do understand that IP, for example using an actor's likeness via CGI+AI, is a very real issue that needs to be addressed.
People who are not working in IT but in a much less paid professions don't have enough war chest and savings to have luxury take a year off to learn new skill.
This might even apply to fresh IT students who started collage this year - they won't be happy that 10 years from now, just 5 years after graduation and still with student debt, their salaries are not above average anymore.
Re: AI Will Transform the Global Economy. Let's Make Sure It Benefits Humanity
#55Earlier quoted context omitted.
How can there be profits without wage income to buy the output? The paradox of productivity will kick in and prices will plummet.
Well, there's other kinds of income, like dividends. They just get paid to shareholders, rather than laborers.
A company's income comes from people spending and consuming. The propensity to consume of owners is less than workers.
The more you invest in machinery and lay off workers, the fewer people you have with income they want to spend, and that's when the prices plummets.
Re: AI Will Transform the Global Economy. Let's Make Sure It Benefits Humanity
#56Earlier quoted context omitted.
How can there be profits without wage income to buy the output? The paradox of productivity will kick in and prices will plummet.
The short answer is because markets are not monolithic. You can have all kinds of price and market distortion as long as it’s a small group of people or a group of people that has a significant wealth effect over those that do not have it. Just like you have services and products specifically for multimillionaires and billionaires, where you can get things that nobody else has, and in many cases even aware exist, you…
You can't have price rises without scarcity. AI makes things less scarce and easier to produce.
And it is nothing new. Computers used to be a job title.
Re: AI Will Transform the Global Economy. Let's Make Sure It Benefits Humanity
#57Earlier quoted context omitted.
How can there be profits without wage income to buy the output? The paradox of productivity will kick in and prices will plummet.
In some industries, prices will follow wealthier people as more profit will come from gouging those on the lucky side now much larger wealth divide, and the middle class will vanish. You saw an example of this in ecommerce during the pandemic's economic upheaval. Luxury goods recorded increased sales, as did bottom of the barrel retailers. Services and items in the comfortable middle class we all deserve suffered dec…
You're talking about scarcity. AI makes things more prevalent, not scarce. It becomes far easier and cheaper to do X.
Where's the monopoly coming from that allows price gouging?
Re: AI Will Transform the Global Economy. Let's Make Sure It Benefits Humanity
#58Earlier quoted context omitted.
That 'unemployment is at an all time low' statistic is disingenious, one needs to include the sibling statistics that 'under employment is currently at the highest it has ever been." People are working crap jobs that merely maintain, they are not in their careers of education, they are in those "bullshit jobs" that abuse them.
There are stats for that too. What do they show?
That people can't afford housing, for example. That cars are becoming more and more expensive. Food, the same, etc.
Re: AI Will Transform the Global Economy. Let's Make Sure It Benefits Humanity
#59Earlier quoted context omitted.
The short answer is because markets are not monolithic. You can have all kinds of price and market distortion as long as it’s a small group of people or a group of people that has a significant wealth effect over those that do not have it. Just like you have services and products specifically for multimillionaires and billionaires, where you can get things that nobody else has, and in many cases even aware exist, you…
You can't have price rises without scarcity. AI makes things less scarce and easier to produce. And it is nothing new. Computers used to be a job title.
Look up what the business model for in-app purchases is. In short, it's a few rich "whales" that sustain those economies, everyone else is just providing free labor to amuse the "whales".
A digital noble and servant relationship.
Re: AI Will Transform the Global Economy. Let's Make Sure It Benefits Humanity
#60Earlier quoted context omitted.
In some industries, prices will follow wealthier people as more profit will come from gouging those on the lucky side now much larger wealth divide, and the middle class will vanish. You saw an example of this in ecommerce during the pandemic's economic upheaval. Luxury goods recorded increased sales, as did bottom of the barrel retailers. Services and items in the comfortable middle class we all deserve suffered dec…
You're talking about scarcity. AI makes things more prevalent, not scarce. It becomes far easier and cheaper to do X. Where's the monopoly coming from that allows price gouging?
I was not talking about scarcity, I was talking about the perversions of markets in an increasing wealth gap. There is no scarcity of brand name clothes for example. It's only expensive because people with excess money choose to pay for it, but it cost cents to make and there is no mismatch between supply and demand, and it is often not better than cheaper clothing.
Why would you need a monopoly? They aren't competing on price. It's an irrational market.