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Ask HN: Are you an optimist for the next 10 years?

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41–50 of 53 posts

Re: Ask HN: Are you an optimist for the next 10 years?

#41
Well, latest trends to talk that ultra-specialized I-shaped specialist is not good, but in modern environment should be Pi-shaped (Greek Pi letter with two legs), or multiple-legs shaped specialist, like m-shaped or even more legs.

I'm not I-shaped, so I will talk separately about different matters.

Technically, or on cybernetic industry, I'm absolutely optimistic, I'm sure, we will see Great achievements nearest time.

For others, I'm not so optimistic.

In my "viewport", international politics is not looking enough optimistic, I think it's not fatal, we will live, civilization infrastructure will survive, but possible millions of victims of non-optimal control.

Similar thing about international economy - it will sure suffer very much from non-optimal politics.

I believe, Earth will avoid new world war, but it will cost huge resources and huge number of victims in local conflicts.

Very high probability, we will see one of more waves of millions of refugees, and current refugees will not return to their home countries.

Yes, must admit, largest world subjects have great crisis, but I believe in democracy and I know from history, democracies usually become stronger in crisis.

So, also high probability, in nearest 2-3 years old democracies will resolve their crisis and world will become better, safer place, with more democracy, and next years will be just other technological circle.

Unfortunately, for non-democratic and for border worlds, things much worse. As democracies busy in their crisis, "third world" will suffer great shakes, already existing local wars and some tensions could also transform to few wars.

I'm sure in "third world" tech achievements will be used at war. I want to avoid such scenario, but I have not enough resources to do so.

And latest, sure, will be huge differences how these years will live "first world" and "third world", but I'm optimistic about border countries, who now making desperate tries to become important for "first world" - I think, their pains will be considered in "first world" and they will got significant support.

Re: Ask HN: Are you an optimist for the next 10 years?

#43
I'm not optimistic at all.

I feel that my company will increase their outsourcing and selling off parts of the company. The working environment at my company will continue to change in ways that make it more difficult for someone with my disability to be successful. My skills will atrophy further.

My home life will continue to be rough due to family medical issues, small children, and financial/ideological disagreements.

Overall I think there will be interesting breakthroughs in many areas of technology, medicine, etc. However, I think most of the technical enhancements will end up being misapplied or implemented in ways that are not to my liking. Life will continue to get more complicated and expensive. I'm sure that there will be more bad laws passed than good ones, however well intentioned they started out.

Re: Ask HN: Are you an optimist for the next 10 years?

#44
post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>mankind had never had a crisis that didn’t end up with another phase of growth that reached new heights. Will I be part of this amazing growth?

If you survive it - yes. And if you can afford chatting on HN - most likely you are in the priveleged group who will survive.

Plenty of people have survived only to be left behind.

Re: Ask HN: Are you an optimist for the next 10 years?

#45

Yes, quite excited about it actually. Personally, I will be most likely moving to the USA within two years (finally figured out EB2-NIW is the way to go). Nowhere else does one pay relatively small taxes and get 11 carrier strike groups out of it! Globally, there is even more to look forward to - tech (bio, space), politics (left seems to be waning), economy are all looking good. If there is something I am worried ab…

"left seems to be waning"

Is it? The country is divided mostly in an urban vs rural way. Each area is basically aligned the same as it always was. If anything, urban sprawl and transplants are causing more areas to become urbanized and lean left.

Re: Ask HN: Are you an optimist for the next 10 years?

#46
post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you survive it - yes. And if you can afford chatting on HN - most likely you are in the priveleged group who will survive.

Plenty of people have survived only to be left behind.

This is an empty phrase that can mean anything.

Re: Ask HN: Are you an optimist for the next 10 years?

#47
post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Plenty of people have survived only to be left behind.

This is an empty phrase that can mean anything.

Presumably it takes on the context of the parent, unless you consider their's an empty phrase.

Re: Ask HN: Are you an optimist for the next 10 years?

#48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Crisis of uncertainty This is made up.

Wdym?

There are no such crises in the west as long as we take crisis to mean an acute problem that we haven’t always been in. Never has there been so much wealth, safety and security for anyone who is willing to do some light work for it. Except perhaps migration and demographic crisis, especially in Europe..

Re: Ask HN: Are you an optimist for the next 10 years?

#49
post #45

Yes, quite excited about it actually. Personally, I will be most likely moving to the USA within two years (finally figured out EB2-NIW is the way to go). Nowhere else does one pay relatively small taxes and get 11 carrier strike groups out of it! Globally, there is even more to look forward to - tech (bio, space), politics (left seems to be waning), economy are all looking good. If there is something I am worried ab…

"left seems to be waning" Is it? The country is divided mostly in an urban vs rural way. Each area is basically aligned the same as it always was. If anything, urban sprawl and transplants are causing more areas to become urbanized and lean left.

It's not even "left", it's Democrats. Most actual leftists are out in the country too scared for their lives to do much public organizing.

Re: Ask HN: Are you an optimist for the next 10 years?

#50
post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

but what is the good thing? I mean everyone expects more wealth, but technological revolutions usually lead to inequality, a drop in average quality of life, and corruption.

which technological revolutions have lead to this?

Usually the ones that happen at a whiplash pace, like Mao's cultural revolution or the introduction of firearms to Native American populations. New technology needs time to mature and be rationalized by society at-large. Aviation and computing are both good examples, which had half-century long development phases before breaking into the consumer market and (finally) improving quality-of-life for everyone.

AI is just going to exist and rapidly develop outside the scrutiny of standardization. If you're a libertarian or venture capitalist it's probably your wet dream, but if planes and computers were developed like that then we probably still wouldn't have smartphones and passenger jets in 2024.

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