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Ask HN: Are you an optimist for the next 10 years?

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Re: Ask HN: Are you an optimist for the next 10 years?

#31

Post by hxypqr »

aristofun wrote: post #7

Obviously. There is nothing more ignorant that to be pessimistic just because of being in the midst of another crisis. It is your fear and instincts speaking, not reason. Because logically- mankind had never had a crisis that didn’t end up with another phase of growth that reached new heights. No reasons to assume things are gonna be different just because you witness it. It is exactly because of crisis things get be…

Too optimistic, how did dinosaurs become extinct, and why won't similar things happen to humans? Even if AI is a problem inherent to humans, the core issue and the collision of asteroids with Earth are not fundamentally different, reflected in a certain aspect of this species' flaw

Re: Ask HN: Are you an optimist for the next 10 years?

#32

Post by aristofun »

codingdave wrote: post #16
aristofun wrote: post #7

Obviously. There is nothing more ignorant that to be pessimistic just because of being in the midst of another crisis. It is your fear and instincts speaking, not reason. Because logically- mankind had never had a crisis that didn’t end up with another phase of growth that reached new heights. No reasons to assume things are gonna be different just because you witness it. It is exactly because of crisis things get be…

> mankind had never had a crisis that didn’t end up with another phase of growth The fact that we keep discovering ancient civilizations that are no more, and we were not even aware of their existence until recently, argues against this point.

Nope.

“Civilization”, for example Roman Empire - is a meta construct. Its death doesn’t imply death of all people in it.

So no problems with death of one company and creating a new one, eventually it benefits the employees.

Re: Ask HN: Are you an optimist for the next 10 years?

#33

Post by hxypqr »

samstave wrote: post #18
nothercastle wrote: post #17

Someone will win big in the next decade. The question is will it be you? Me? China? Europe? USA? That we don’t know.

Oligarchs gunna Oligarch. But the consolidation and the .001% have really gottten in bed together in a way that they never could before. With all their assets intrisincly entangled in the global economy, AI is here to bring the next level of wealth extraction for them, greater authoritarianism and a globalisation like we havent seen. The wars we are fighting are for who is going to be in charge of the dominant AI ent…

The number .001% should be changed to .1% or 1%.

Re: Ask HN: Are you an optimist for the next 10 years?

#34

Post by aristofun »

hxypqr wrote: post #31
aristofun wrote: post #7

Obviously. There is nothing more ignorant that to be pessimistic just because of being in the midst of another crisis. It is your fear and instincts speaking, not reason. Because logically- mankind had never had a crisis that didn’t end up with another phase of growth that reached new heights. No reasons to assume things are gonna be different just because you witness it. It is exactly because of crisis things get be…

Too optimistic, how did dinosaurs become extinct, and why won't similar things happen to humans? Even if AI is a problem inherent to humans, the core issue and the collision of asteroids with Earth are not fundamentally different, reflected in a certain aspect of this species' flaw

If you cant control/predict something (like asteroid) - there is no point in worrying about it, it is simply outside of the equation.

Afaik there are people watching the space for dangerous objects, so we’re better prepared than dinosaurs anyway :)

If you do worry about such things - again, fear and instincts speaking, not reason.

You can reason and be reasonably worried about things you can at least measure.

For example how long would current downtime take, or what lessons can we learn to fix things in the future etc.

Re: Ask HN: Are you an optimist for the next 10 years?

#35

Post by samstave »

hxypqr wrote: post #33
samstave wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Oligarchs gunna Oligarch. But the consolidation and the .001% have really gottten in bed together in a way that they never could before. With all their assets intrisincly entangled in the global economy, AI is here to bring the next level of wealth extraction for them, greater authoritarianism and a globalisation like we havent seen. The wars we are fighting are for who is going to be in charge of the dominant AI ent…

The number .001% should be changed to .1% or 1%.

I was implying that the .001% are the Oligarchs. The 1% are their entourage/minions/buffer-class.

https://i.imgur.com/aMENxsB.png However, the list of >100B people obviously doesnt include a lot of people that are in the shadows. Medici is still around, Rothschilds, Germanic-royal-bloodlines in the hapsberg gotha and other lines, etc. And obviously its talking about known "market" worth - but look at how much land and real-estate is owned by people such as Rothschilds, and ilk. -

Billionaires with over $100 billion net worth (as of January 13, 2024):

https://i.imgur.com/qRZcFb5.png

Top 20 of the next tier:

https://i.imgur.com/UFHUAke.png

99% are the chattel.

Re: Ask HN: Are you an optimist for the next 10 years?

#37

Post by codingdave »

aristofun wrote: post #32
codingdave wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> mankind had never had a crisis that didn’t end up with another phase of growth The fact that we keep discovering ancient civilizations that are no more, and we were not even aware of their existence until recently, argues against this point.

Nope. “Civilization”, for example Roman Empire - is a meta construct. Its death doesn’t imply death of all people in it. So no problems with death of one company and creating a new one, eventually it benefits the employees.

Wait, what?

Are you talking about your original statement of new growth post-crisis, or about living through the death of a civilization's collapse, or about what 'civilization' means, or about companies being created and its employees?

You seem to be all over the place, so I'm really not sure where you are going with your comments aside from your dismissive: "Nope."

Re: Ask HN: Are you an optimist for the next 10 years?

#38

Post by aristofun »

codingdave wrote: post #37
aristofun wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nope. “Civilization”, for example Roman Empire - is a meta construct. Its death doesn’t imply death of all people in it. So no problems with death of one company and creating a new one, eventually it benefits the employees.

Wait, what? Are you talking about your original statement of new growth post-crisis, or about living through the death of a civilization's collapse, or about what 'civilization' means, or about companies being created and its employees? You seem to be all over the place, so I'm really not sure where you are going with your comments aside from your dismissive: "Nope."

Sorry, Im too metaphorical here.

Tl;dr - civilizations come and go, but humankind as a whole evolves and get better over time. Despite regular downtimes and severe turbulence.

Re: Ask HN: Are you an optimist for the next 10 years?

#39

Post by aristofun »

admissionsguy wrote: post #27
aristofun wrote: post #7

Obviously. There is nothing more ignorant that to be pessimistic just because of being in the midst of another crisis. It is your fear and instincts speaking, not reason. Because logically- mankind had never had a crisis that didn’t end up with another phase of growth that reached new heights. No reasons to assume things are gonna be different just because you witness it. It is exactly because of crisis things get be…

> just because of being in the midst of another crisis. What crisis is the world in at the moment?

Crisis of uncertainty.

Political uncertainty, economical, technological, spiritual, you name it

Re: Ask HN: Are you an optimist for the next 10 years?

#40

Post by admissionsguy »

aristofun wrote: post #39
admissionsguy wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> just because of being in the midst of another crisis. What crisis is the world in at the moment?

Crisis of uncertainty. Political uncertainty, economical, technological, spiritual, you name it

> Crisis of uncertainty

This is made up.

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