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Ask HN: Are you an optimist for the next 10 years?
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Re: Ask HN: Are you an optimist for the next 10 years?
#2What kind of question is?
I’m optimistic we won’t have nuclear annihilation.
I’m not optimistic about many other things.
Re: Ask HN: Are you an optimist for the next 10 years?
#3No... tech. will destroy us... I think it already started but not sure if most people will notice it in 10 years from now.
Re: Ask HN: Are you an optimist for the next 10 years?
#4We need AGI/ASI to hit and be a good thing.
Re: Ask HN: Are you an optimist for the next 10 years?
#5No... tech. will destroy us... I think it already started but not sure if most people will notice it in 10 years from now.
We have a long history of 'dangerous' tech not destroying us - agriculture being one...
I grew up with the Doomsday Clock (atomic weapons) at 11:59... I think we'll muddle through.
It won't be 'irrational exuberance' again any time soon, nor the apocalypse (in my view).
Re: Ask HN: Are you an optimist for the next 10 years?
#6I think we need to avoid the 3 problems, DNA weapons, Atomic Weapons, and AI weapons.
I think that in the long run, we'll work them all out. Compared to my youth, the stakes these days seem lower. I no longer worry every night about getting flash boiled by a Soviet 10 Megaton warhead, or a Communist Invasion.
Re: Ask HN: Are you an optimist for the next 10 years?
#7Obviously.
There is nothing more ignorant that to be pessimistic just because of being in the midst of another crisis.
It is your fear and instincts speaking, not reason.
Because logically- mankind had never had a crisis that didn’t end up with another phase of growth that reached new heights.
No reasons to assume things are gonna be different just because you witness it.
It is exactly because of crisis things get better afterwards.
Re: Ask HN: Are you an optimist for the next 10 years?
#8No. I think I’ll probably manage OK, but in the US at least it’s going to be pretty grim for a lot of people unless something drastically changes.
Beyond the next few decades the effects of climage change are going to be hard to avoid unless you’re particularly wealthy.
Re: Ask HN: Are you an optimist for the next 10 years?
#9Obviously. There is nothing more ignorant that to be pessimistic just because of being in the midst of another crisis. It is your fear and instincts speaking, not reason. Because logically- mankind had never had a crisis that didn’t end up with another phase of growth that reached new heights. No reasons to assume things are gonna be different just because you witness it. It is exactly because of crisis things get be…
> mankind had never had a crisis that didn’t end up with another phase of growth that reached new heights.
Aside from the population of Easter Island and other such resource constrained losers (/s).
I'm optimisic for the next decade simply beacuse the issues we face now were a century in the making and will take a century more to really bite.
Re: Ask HN: Are you an optimist for the next 10 years?
#10No... tech. will destroy us... I think it already started but not sure if most people will notice it in 10 years from now.
We have a long history of 'dangerous' tech not destroying us - agriculture being one... I grew up with the Doomsday Clock (atomic weapons) at 11:59... I think we'll muddle through. It won't be 'irrational exuberance' again any time soon, nor the apocalypse (in my view).
I find it's safest when people fear it. Not just for nukes but things like capitalism, democracy, the military-industrial complex, or well, things like agriculture and genetic modification.
Without that fear, you get the people like Trump, the ones who are proud to exploit the weaknesses in the system. You get your GM cows, the kinds who produce lots of meat and milk but are "unstable"; they can barely survive without human interference.
The industrial age was a terrible time for humanity in general, and I think we'll see another once AI really kicks in. The AI companies are careful about this. Many are practically begging to get regulated lol. But this self-fear is good.