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Why can't today's young adults leave the nest? Blame high housing costs

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Re: Why can't today's young adults leave the nest? Blame high housing costs

#81

Post by jevoten »

toomuchtodo wrote: post #47
jevoten wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Even countries with robust natalist subsidy policies cannot materially lift the TFR. So we are told, but this reeks of pretend-helplessness, an excuse not to even try. The Czech Republic raised its fertility rate from 1.1 in 1999, to 1.8 in 2021 [1,2], so it is empirically possible. [1] https://stoppopulationdecline.org/re-familisation-czech-repu... [2] https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN?location..…

Would you bet on political will and a supportive electorate? Any other similar outcomes to the Czech Republic? Or are they an outlier perhaps unable to be reproduced? 40%-50% of global pregnancies are unintended annually. When contraceptives are readily available and women are empowered, the fertility rate falls. Is there enough fiat to change that? There is a light cone based on aggregate productive labor participat…

> Any other similar outcomes to the Czech Republic? Or are they an outlier perhaps unable to be reproduced?

"We shouldn't try because it won't work. We know it won't work because there are so few examples of it working."

Most countries used to have above-replacement fertility. At least some countries that implement natalist policies recover fertility. While not exactly a reversal of low fertility, Israel is an example of an advanced economy with above-replacement fertility.

Evidence points overwhelmingly towards this being a fixable problem, if only we try. Certainly few other problems are approached this way - we don't give up on reducing CO2 emissions or plastic pollution just because we've so far not succeeded. One only approaches a problem this way if one doesn't want to solve it.

Re: Why can't today's young adults leave the nest? Blame high housing costs

#82

Post by wait_a_minute »

toomuchtodo wrote: post #47
jevoten wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Even countries with robust natalist subsidy policies cannot materially lift the TFR. So we are told, but this reeks of pretend-helplessness, an excuse not to even try. The Czech Republic raised its fertility rate from 1.1 in 1999, to 1.8 in 2021 [1,2], so it is empirically possible. [1] https://stoppopulationdecline.org/re-familisation-czech-repu... [2] https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN?location..…

Would you bet on political will and a supportive electorate? Any other similar outcomes to the Czech Republic? Or are they an outlier perhaps unable to be reproduced? 40%-50% of global pregnancies are unintended annually. When contraceptives are readily available and women are empowered, the fertility rate falls. Is there enough fiat to change that? There is a light cone based on aggregate productive labor participat…

People have decent enough access to fiat already. Certainly better than what our parents and grandparents and so on went through. What’s absent is the foresight to think about the future with wisdom. People are in party mode for too long and think life is just about single life living or an endless consumption-based vacation type of experience.

We require a return to maturity and responsibility and clear, focused thoughts across the board. We need to have higher standards for truth and accurate information and accurate statistics. We need less climate fear-mongering and doom-scrolling. The world and civilization are not ending yet many youth are blasted by endless propaganda and negativity from a young age.

We need to be smart and fixated on what’s true again, in all areas. Truth over lies and truthful statements and processes over half-truths or lies.

So it’s a values and wisdom thing, which has been absent or pulled out from beneath people by the sudden subversion of reasoned and nuanced thinking by easy access to qualitatively cheap information and sound bites.

I think the appetite for nuance will come back and this will represent a return to truth and consequently to more emphasis on family and especially the nuclear family.

Re: Why can't today's young adults leave the nest? Blame high housing costs

#83

Post by toomuchtodo »

jevoten wrote: post #81
toomuchtodo wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Would you bet on political will and a supportive electorate? Any other similar outcomes to the Czech Republic? Or are they an outlier perhaps unable to be reproduced? 40%-50% of global pregnancies are unintended annually. When contraceptives are readily available and women are empowered, the fertility rate falls. Is there enough fiat to change that? There is a light cone based on aggregate productive labor participat…

> Any other similar outcomes to the Czech Republic? Or are they an outlier perhaps unable to be reproduced? "We shouldn't try because it won't work. We know it won't work because there are so few examples of it working." Most countries used to have above-replacement fertility. At least some countries that implement natalist policies recover fertility. While not exactly a reversal of low fertility, Israel is an exampl…

We disagree it’s a problem, or that a fix is needed.

Re: Why can't today's young adults leave the nest? Blame high housing costs

#84

Post by danaris »

aantix wrote: post #14

I'm surprised with remote work we haven't seen a resurgence of the small town. Towns within an hour of a bigger city, but small enough where the real estate is still reasonably priced. Maybe when this young adult generation starts to consider kids, this option might become attractive.

> I'm surprised with remote work we haven't seen a resurgence of the small town.

That kind of demographic shift takes a generation or more to really occur. It hasn't even been 4 years since remote work took off with the pandemic.

Re: Why can't today's young adults leave the nest? Blame high housing costs

#85

Post by lifestyleguru »

genman wrote: post #75
lifestyleguru wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Politicians are the real estate owners and they understand exponential processes just fine. Their kids don't pay rent but receive it.

And who is going to pay this rent when population will drop?

"supply is limited and people have to live somewhere"

Re: Why can't today's young adults leave the nest? Blame high housing costs

#86

Post by jevoten »

kr0bat wrote: post #55
jevoten wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This 2018 paper is quite clear [1] that, for example, immigration reduces native fertility. Yet immigration continues to be sold as the solution to ailing fertility. One can only conclude that society, or rather its rulers, at best do not care. [1] The effect of immigration shocks on native fertility outcomes: evidence from a natural experiment - https://izajodm.springeropen.com/articles/10.1186/s40176-018...

The paper was very careful to describe the mass increase of Cuban immigrants as "immigration shock", not just immigration. I don't think the conclusions of this paper can say any one thing about the effects of our (I'm assuming you're American as well) standard levels of immigration. Also.. These results suggest that immigration shocks do have implications for the fertility decisions and outcomes of natives, though t…

> standard levels of immigration

Immigration to the US is at its highest level since the 1910s, in both absolute and relative terms: https://cis.org/Graph-Immigrants-US-Number-Percent

Re: Why can't today's young adults leave the nest? Blame high housing costs

#87

Post by BobaFloutist »

nix0n wrote: post #63
willcipriano wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

School quality is overhyped, what they are really measuring is student quality for the most part.

> what they are really measuring is student quality for the most part That doesn't make sense to me. What sort of forces do you imagine will cause one school to have better students than another, consistently for decades?

Cost of living.

Not, mind you, because poor kids are exceptionally poor students on their own, but because their parents tend to have less time and money to support them.

Re: Why can't today's young adults leave the nest? Blame high housing costs

#88

Post by wvenable »

atonse wrote: post #15

(Genuine questions, please don't misinterpret as negative judgement): How much of this is actually new as far as income vs costs, and how much of this is unwillingness to make sacrifices that older generations did? For example, in my 20s (20 years ago), it was very common for 20somethings to live in shared housing with 2-3 roommates. They would share kitchens, fridges, everything. And these houses weren't even that g…

I'm probably as old as you, perhaps older. I got by an a relatively expensive city for a fraction of what it costs now relative to income. I went to school, worked part time, rented my own place, and had a kid.

That kid is now an adult and is highly educated, has 2 jobs, and can't reasonably afford to rent their own place. They might be married and have children of their own now if things were the same as when we were younger.

All the young people I know would gladly trade what they have now for the meager "sacrifices" of older generations.

Re: Why can't today's young adults leave the nest? Blame high housing costs

#89

Post by nabilhat »

atonse wrote: post #15

(Genuine questions, please don't misinterpret as negative judgement): How much of this is actually new as far as income vs costs, and how much of this is unwillingness to make sacrifices that older generations did? For example, in my 20s (20 years ago), it was very common for 20somethings to live in shared housing with 2-3 roommates. They would share kitchens, fridges, everything. And these houses weren't even that g…

25 years ago, I was spending just over 1/3 of my take home pay on rent. That used to be a normal thing that people could do, only 25 years ago.

The exact same apartment is listed today for over four times what I was paying then. The same job I had then now pays 25% more. Rent for the same apartment is more than that job's entire gross pay.

Re: Why can't today's young adults leave the nest? Blame high housing costs

#90

Post by spc476 »

atonse wrote: post #15

(Genuine questions, please don't misinterpret as negative judgement): How much of this is actually new as far as income vs costs, and how much of this is unwillingness to make sacrifices that older generations did? For example, in my 20s (20 years ago), it was very common for 20somethings to live in shared housing with 2-3 roommates. They would share kitchens, fridges, everything. And these houses weren't even that g…

It's the same as it ever was. I remember the same hand wringing about home ownership among Generation X in the mid-90s, and largely for the same reasons. This is nothing new.
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