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Why can't today's young adults leave the nest? Blame high housing costs

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Re: Why can't today's young adults leave the nest? Blame high housing costs

#51

Post by rufus_foreman »

I'm skeptical of the idea that housing costs are the primary reason young adults live at home longer. First of all, the trend was present before interest rates started rising, and before that housing costs as a percent of income were not higher than previous generations. And Gen Z are growing up slower than previous generations in other ways as well:

> "While the majority of 8th grade Gen Xers in the 1990s had dated, tried alcohol, and worked for pay, only about one in four 8th grade Gen Zers had done the same in 2021. The number who had had sex by the spring of 9th grade went from nearly 40% in the Gen X era to less than 15% among Gen Z".

That is not related to housing costs. Previous generations seemed to grow up quicker, Gen X certainly did.

Re: Why can't today's young adults leave the nest? Blame high housing costs

#52

Post by xnx »

HPsquared wrote: post #26

Every year for the last 5 I've thought "this must surely be the top of the market, I'll wait".. And every year they went up. Now interest rates have gone up too, to add insult to injury. Just going to leave for greener pastures, I think.

Home prices tend to decrease when interest rates go up so that monthly payments aren't that different. Unfortunately, there's a lag between rates increasing and sellers realizing their potential buyers can afford less.

Re: Why can't today's young adults leave the nest? Blame high housing costs

#53

Post by pyrophane »

hehhehaha wrote: post #16

Why should young people leave the house in the first place again? This whole thing of kicking out kids when theyre 18 is new and bad.

I don't think most kids leave because they are being kicked out. They leave because the want to assert their independence from their parents and enjoy the freedoms that come from living on their own.

Re: Why can't today's young adults leave the nest? Blame high housing costs

#54

Post by titanomachy »

atonse wrote: post #15

(Genuine questions, please don't misinterpret as negative judgement): How much of this is actually new as far as income vs costs, and how much of this is unwillingness to make sacrifices that older generations did? For example, in my 20s (20 years ago), it was very common for 20somethings to live in shared housing with 2-3 roommates. They would share kitchens, fridges, everything. And these houses weren't even that g…

> it was very common for 20somethings to live in shared housing with 2-3 roommates.

In my experience this is still the norm in high CoL west-coast cities. Single people living alone are the exception rather than the norm. Couples tend to rent a 1- or 2-bedroom.

Interestingly this seems to still be true for many highly-paid young people who could easily afford their own place but end up with roommates to save up money. No idea how representative my sample is.

Re: Why can't today's young adults leave the nest? Blame high housing costs

#55

Post by kr0bat »

jevoten wrote: post #18
toomuchtodo wrote: post #2

I don’t think society has yet realized the cascading effects this will have on fertility rate and compression of the demographic pyramid.

This 2018 paper is quite clear [1] that, for example, immigration reduces native fertility. Yet immigration continues to be sold as the solution to ailing fertility. One can only conclude that society, or rather its rulers, at best do not care. [1] The effect of immigration shocks on native fertility outcomes: evidence from a natural experiment - https://izajodm.springeropen.com/articles/10.1186/s40176-018...

The paper was very careful to describe the mass increase of Cuban immigrants as "immigration shock", not just immigration. I don't think the conclusions of this paper can say any one thing about the effects of our (I'm assuming you're American as well) standard levels of immigration. Also..

  These results suggest that immigration shocks do have implications for the fertility decisions and outcomes of natives, though these tend only to be temporary and short-lived. There therefore appear to be little long-term or sustained consequences for the fertility of natives from governments pursuing labour augmenting strategies through more open immigration policies.
From the conclusion. I only really skimmed the abstract and the conclusion, please tell me if I'm missing something.

Re: Why can't today's young adults leave the nest? Blame high housing costs

#56

Post by FigurativeVoid »

My wife is a biologist, and I am a software engineer. We live in the midwest.

We could afford a house, but the more we look at it, the worse a financial decision it seems. The homes are way more expensive then they are worth. The mortgage would be more than double our rent.

The issue, as far as I can tell, is that people treat their homes like investments and want investment-like returns.

Re: Why can't today's young adults leave the nest? Blame high housing costs

#57

Post by nix0n »

atonse wrote: post #15

(Genuine questions, please don't misinterpret as negative judgement): How much of this is actually new as far as income vs costs, and how much of this is unwillingness to make sacrifices that older generations did? For example, in my 20s (20 years ago), it was very common for 20somethings to live in shared housing with 2-3 roommates. They would share kitchens, fridges, everything. And these houses weren't even that g…

> in my 20s (20 years ago), it was very common for 20somethings to live in shared housing with 2-3 roommates. They would share kitchens, fridges, everything. And these houses weren't even that great to begin with.

That's how people live in their 30s now. People in their 20s aren't developed enough in their careers to afford that sort of living.

Re: Why can't today's young adults leave the nest? Blame high housing costs

#58

Post by xnx »

High housing costs are also caused by boomers aging in place and occupying too much house for their needs. https://arbor.com/blog/aging-baby-boomers-reshape-the-housin...

The housing equation could shift quickly as boomers die or move to assisted living facilities.

Re: Why can't today's young adults leave the nest? Blame high housing costs

#60

Post by autoexec »

atonse wrote: post #15

(Genuine questions, please don't misinterpret as negative judgement): How much of this is actually new as far as income vs costs, and how much of this is unwillingness to make sacrifices that older generations did? For example, in my 20s (20 years ago), it was very common for 20somethings to live in shared housing with 2-3 roommates. They would share kitchens, fridges, everything. And these houses weren't even that g…

> How much of this is actually new as far as income vs costs, and how much of this is unwillingness to make sacrifices that older generations did?

Considering that the costs of everything have not only skyrocketed but wages were stagnated for decades (https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2018/08/07/for-most-...) before declining (https://www.axios.com/2023/09/12/real-incomes-fell-last-year...) - the largest decline in real wages in 40 years, and that the standard of living for Americans has also been declining for years, long before the recent massive hike in inflation, I doubt it has much if anything to do with an unwillingness to make sacrifices. In fact, it seems like young adults today are being forced to make sacrifices left and right. In the 1980s young adults had homes, full time employment, cars, health insurance, babies, pension plans, $60,000 less debit from their student loans, and hope for the future.

It's pretty smart for young adults to live somewhat near family because they can get a lot of help and support that way, but the fact that they can't even afford to leave their parent's home is a very bad sign for our economy. When kids move out they pay for a ton of new things like furniture, cars, silverware, irons, vacuum cleaners, towels, streaming services etc. When they're at home there's no need at all to buy a lot of things because their parents already have them.

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