Why can't today's young adults leave the nest? Blame high housing costs • Hacker News Board

Re: Why can't today's young adults leave the nest? Blame high housing costs

#31

Post by rexpop » Fri, Jan 12, 2024, 9:07 PM UTC

atonse wrote: post #15

(Genuine questions, please don't misinterpret as negative judgement): How much of this is actually new as far as income vs costs, and how much of this is unwillingness to make sacrifices that older generations did? For example, in my 20s (20 years ago), it was very common for 20somethings to live in shared housing with 2-3 roommates. They would share kitchens, fridges, everything. And these houses weren't even that g…

Apparently both categories have been growing since at least 1990.*

1. https://bostonagentmagazine.com/2018/07/11/young-adults-choo...

Re: Why can't today's young adults leave the nest? Blame high housing costs

#32

Post by advael » Fri, Jan 12, 2024, 9:07 PM UTC

atonse wrote: post #15

(Genuine questions, please don't misinterpret as negative judgement): How much of this is actually new as far as income vs costs, and how much of this is unwillingness to make sacrifices that older generations did? For example, in my 20s (20 years ago), it was very common for 20somethings to live in shared housing with 2-3 roommates. They would share kitchens, fridges, everything. And these houses weren't even that g…

No, the vast overwhelming majority of people in major cities (where the jobs are) rent houses with roommates or live in small apartments. Moreso than in previous generations. Renting a house with roommates is increasingly the best long-term plan even many 30-somethings I know can ever hope to afford

The instinct to assume that trends affecting entire generations of people are "personal choices" rather than economic issues is a common delusion that usually comes from listening to the messaging of companies responsible for these problems when they are discussed

Re: Why can't today's young adults leave the nest? Blame high housing costs

#33

Post by aschearer » Fri, Jan 12, 2024, 9:07 PM UTC

I live a few blocks from a highly rated high school. The elementary school is next door. The middle school isn't far, either. Point being, this is an excellent place to raise a family. That being said, with one or two exceptions all my neighbors are retired with adult children or grandchildren. (Not living with them, to be clear.)

I can't fault my neighbors for deciding to stick around in their nice, large homes with bedrooms to spare -- especially if they've paid off their mortgages or renegotiated during the pandemic. That said, I can't help but feel something is wrong with this picture.

Why isn't the neighborhood filled with young families? And when these older folks do finally move, will young families be able to afford the increasingly expensive mortgages? Looking at the Case-Shiller index, it's scary -- almost double the pre-2008 peak![1]

[1]: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPINSA

Re: Why can't today's young adults leave the nest? Blame high housing costs

#34

Post by fractal618 » Fri, Jan 12, 2024, 9:07 PM UTC

My observation has been that as long as basic human needs are easily obtained there is a natural tendency to become complacent and go with the flow.

Another perspective could be: what’s so bad about people taking longer to mature? In a way it points to the possibility that we have evolved to a society that allows children to be children for longer. The real problem is that biologically their bodies are screaming for reproduction which becomes confusing and stressful. Perhaps in the future we will deal with this in creative and healthy new ways

Re: Why can't today's young adults leave the nest? Blame high housing costs

#35

Post by ozr » Fri, Jan 12, 2024, 9:08 PM UTC

atonse wrote: post #15

(Genuine questions, please don't misinterpret as negative judgement): How much of this is actually new as far as income vs costs, and how much of this is unwillingness to make sacrifices that older generations did? For example, in my 20s (20 years ago), it was very common for 20somethings to live in shared housing with 2-3 roommates. They would share kitchens, fridges, everything. And these houses weren't even that g…

A pathological sort of comparison is much more common now. They assume that what their parents have (with 20+ years of work), or what they see on social media, is what they should have too. That they don't is perceived as a great injustice.

You can see someone that has what you want and either a) work towards it, or b) complain.

There's always a mix of both, but b) is very loud right now.

Re: Why can't today's young adults leave the nest? Blame high housing costs

#36

Post by nostrebored » Fri, Jan 12, 2024, 9:09 PM UTC

atonse wrote: post #15

(Genuine questions, please don't misinterpret as negative judgement): How much of this is actually new as far as income vs costs, and how much of this is unwillingness to make sacrifices that older generations did? For example, in my 20s (20 years ago), it was very common for 20somethings to live in shared housing with 2-3 roommates. They would share kitchens, fridges, everything. And these houses weren't even that g…

Housing has had a real appreciation at a rate that far outpaces real median wage increases. This is fueled partially by incentives to buy homes, but largely by speculative real estate purchases by older generations. People over the age of 35 own nearly 85% of real estate in the U.S., with people over the age of 55 owning nearly 45%. In both of these categories, ownership is extremely overrepresented and trending up.

We need to stop bailing out the housing market and incentivizing home purchases — this is the only reason that it’s rational for people to do this.

Re: Why can't today's young adults leave the nest? Blame high housing costs

#37

Post by paulpauper » Fri, Jan 12, 2024, 9:09 PM UTC

toomuchtodo wrote: post #29

paulpauper wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

then wouldn't this attenuate the unaffordability problem?

What is your time horizon? Sure, in 50 years, housing supply might improve. Most of us will be dead by then, but I suppose the problem solves itself.

It would seem like there is a constant tug-of-war between supply and demand. Demand grows to meet supply. There is a finite amount of housing in desirable locations. What makes certain areas desirable also makes them expensive.

Re: Why can't today's young adults leave the nest? Blame high housing costs

#38

Post by gnicholas » Fri, Jan 12, 2024, 9:10 PM UTC

I recently talked to a bay area parent whose child graduated with an engineering degree from a top liberal arts college and has a job as a research scientist. The parent said that thanks to the housing crunch, they get to have him at home for a while longer. It is a silver lining for these parents, but of course it's not so great for families that don't have the extra room, or who live in an area where jobs are not available.

Re: Why can't today's young adults leave the nest? Blame high housing costs

#39

Post by yaomingite » Fri, Jan 12, 2024, 9:10 PM UTC

atonse wrote: post #15

(Genuine questions, please don't misinterpret as negative judgement): How much of this is actually new as far as income vs costs, and how much of this is unwillingness to make sacrifices that older generations did? For example, in my 20s (20 years ago), it was very common for 20somethings to live in shared housing with 2-3 roommates. They would share kitchens, fridges, everything. And these houses weren't even that g…

With apps it should be very easy to find a room to rent in a shared unit, but there is no good way to do that. I've tried, and the system for long term rentals isn't as polished or usable as something like AirBNB.

Re: Why can't today's young adults leave the nest? Blame high housing costs

#40

Post by wait_a_minute » Fri, Jan 12, 2024, 9:10 PM UTC

wvenable wrote: post #6

wait_a_minute wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think it will actually increase fertility rate. Not leaving so soon and investing into your career and saving up money will eventually enable more people to choose parenthood. Multi-generational households are a nice thing and much more common outside the USA. Staying at home longer and leveraging American incomes and opportunities to grow more intentionally and sustainably will in the long run increase American fe…

The later one starts in life to have children the fewer, if any, they will have. > Not leaving so soon and investing into your career and saving up money will eventually enable more people to choose parenthood. That might be true if it was a choice made to save money but instead it's not a choice and there isn't any money.

> The later one starts in life to have children the fewer, if any, they will have.

How do you know this?

> That might be true if it was a choice made to save money but instead it's not a choice and there isn't any money.

I’m betting savings rates will go up.